Drought outlook development

Project report

Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Guillory, Laura and Cobon, David. 2021. Drought outlook development. Australia. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).
Title

Drought outlook development

Report TypeProject report
Research Report CategoryIndustry
AuthorsNguyen-Huy, Thong, Guillory, Laura and Cobon, David
Number of Pages9
Year2021
PublisherNorthern Australia Climate Program (NACP)
Place of PublicationAustralia
Web Address (URL)https://www.nacp.org.au/
KeywordsDrought forecast; Combined drought indicator; Climate program; ACCESS-S1
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020410199. Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified
300208. Farm management, rural management and agribusiness
370199. Atmospheric sciences not elsewhere classified
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Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
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Cobon, David, Gacenga, Francis, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Stone, Roger, Guillory, Laura, McCulloch, J., Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Meat & Livestock Australia. 2022. Australian Drought Monitor. Toowoomba. https://doi.org/10.26192/dmek-v625
Support vector machine model for multistep wind speed forecasting
Prasad, Shobna Mohini Mala, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Deo, Ravinesh. 2021. "Support vector machine model for multistep wind speed forecasting." Deo, Ravinesh, Samui, Pijush and Roy, Sanjiban Sekhar (ed.) Predictive modelling for energy management and power systems engineering. Netherlands. Elsevier. pp. 335-389
Specifying the relationship between land use/land cover change and dryness in central Vietnam from 2000 to 2019 using Google Earth Engine
Pham, Thy T. M., Nguyen, The-Duoc, Tham, Han T. N., Truong, Thi Nhat Kieu, Lam-Dao, Nguyen and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2021. "Specifying the relationship between land use/land cover change and dryness in central Vietnam from 2000 to 2019 using Google Earth Engine." Journal of Applied Remote Sensing. 15 (2), pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.15.024503
Hydropower dams, river drought and health effects: a detection and attribution study in the lower Mekong Delta Region
Phung, Dung, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Tran, Ngoc Nguyen, Tran, Dang Ngoc, Doan, Van Quang, Nghiem, Son, Nguyen, Nga Huy, Nguyen, Trung Hieu and Bennett, Trude. 2021. "Hydropower dams, river drought and health effects: a detection and attribution study in the lower Mekong Delta Region." Climate Risk Management. 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100280
Livestock chill conditions associated with the February 2019 Queensland floods
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2021. "Livestock chill conditions associated with the February 2019 Queensland floods." 2021 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Research and Development Workshop. 08 - 11 Nov 2021
Understanding how climate change threatens food security
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2021. "Understanding how climate change threatens food security." A compendium of essays for the Allianz Climate Risk Research Award 2021. Germany.
The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian monsoon rainfall on decadal time-scales
Heidemann, H., Joachim Ribbe, Cowan, T., Henley, B., Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R. and Cobon, D.. 2021. "The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian monsoon rainfall on decadal time-scales." 23rd EGU General Assembly. 19 - 30 Apr 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10482
Application of FAIR and CARE Principles in Research Data Management Practice
Gacenga, Francis, Chesters, Racheal, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Adeyinka, Adewuyi Ayodele and Rose, Samantha. 2021. "Application of FAIR and CARE Principles in Research Data Management Practice." 2021 Australasian Research Management Society VirtualConference (2021 ARMS Virtual Conference Conference): Disrupting the Status Quo: Challenging the Research and Innovation Culture. Online 03 - 05 Nov 2021 Australia.
An evaluation of the effectiveness of adoption and implementation of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) data management principles in research – a case study of the University of Southern Queensland
Gacenga, Francis, Chesters, Racheal, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Rose, Samantha. 2021. "An evaluation of the effectiveness of adoption and implementation of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) data management principles in research – a case study of the University of Southern Queensland." 2021 Collaborative Conference on Computational & Data Intensive Science (C3DIS). Online 06 - 08 Jul 2021 Australia.
MARS model for prediction of short- and long-term global solar radiation
Balalla, Dilki T., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Deo, Ravinesh. 2021. "MARS model for prediction of short- and long-term global solar radiation." Deo, Ravinesh, Roy, Sanjiban Sekhar and Samui, Pijush (ed.) Predictive Modelling for Energy Management and Power Systems Engineering. United Kingdom. Elsevier. pp. 391-436
MARS model for prediction of short- and long-term global solar radiation
Balalla, Dilki T., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Deo, Ravinesh. 2021. "MARS model for prediction of short- and long-term global solar radiation." Deo, Ravinesh, Samui, Pijush and Roy, Sanjiban Sekhar (ed.) Predictive modelling for energy management and power systems engineering. Amsterdam, Netherlands. Elsevier. pp. 391-436
Daily flood forecasts with intelligent data analytic models: multivariate empirical mode decomposition-based modeling methods
Prasad, Ramendra, Charan, Dhrishna, Joseph, Lionel, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Singh, Sanjay. 2021. "Daily flood forecasts with intelligent data analytic models: multivariate empirical mode decomposition-based modeling methods." Deo, Ravinesh C., Samui, Pijush, Kisi, Ozgur and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (ed.) Intelligent data analytics for decision-support systems in hazard mitigation: theory and practice of hazard mitigation. Singapore. Springer. pp. 359-381
Artificial neural networks for prediction of Steadman Heat Index
Chand, Bhuwan, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2021. "Artificial neural networks for prediction of Steadman Heat Index." Deo, Ravinesh C., Samui, Pijush, Kisi, Ozgur and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (ed.) Intelligent data analytics for decision-support systems in hazard mitigation: theory and practice of hazard mitigation. Singapore. Springer. pp. 293-357
Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based copulas: factoring the role of large-scale climate indices in monthly flood prediction
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Prasad, Ramendra. 2021. "Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based copulas: factoring the role of large-scale climate indices in monthly flood prediction." Deo, Ravinesh C., Samui, Pijush, Kisi, Ozgur and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (ed.) Intelligent data analytics for decision-support systems in hazard mitigation: theory and practice of hazard mitigation. Singapore. Springer. pp. 29-47
Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture
Darbyshire, Rebecca, Crean, Jason, Cashen, Michael, Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin, Broadfoot, Kim, Simpson, Marja, Cobon, David, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Kodur, Shreevatsa. 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture." The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 64 (4), pp. 1034-1058. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Monitoring rice growth status in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using multitemporal Sentinel-1 data
Phung, Hoang-Phi, Lam-Dao, Nguyen, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Le-Toan, Thuy and Apan, Armando A.. 2020. "Monitoring rice growth status in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using multitemporal Sentinel-1 data." Journal of Applied Remote Sensing. 14 (1), pp. 014518-1-014518-23. https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.14.014518
Not so robust: robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature
Kath, Jarrod, Byrareddy, Vivekananda M., Craparo, Alessandro, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cao, Loc and Bossolasco, Laurent. 2020. "Not so robust: robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature." Global Change Biology. 26 (6), pp. 3677-3688. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15097
Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant, Carter, John, McKeon, Greg, Zhang, Baisen and Heidemann, Hanna. 2020. "Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia." European Journal of Agronomy. 114 (126002), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126002
Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod, Stone, Roger, Henry, Ross, Laderach, Peter, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Cobon, David, Marcussen, Torben, Cliffe, Neil, Kristiansen, Paul and Pischke, Frederik. 2020. "Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 161 (3), pp. 465-478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02679-5
Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Stone, Gordon and Stone, Roger. 2020. "Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises." Agronomy for Sustainable Development: sciences des productions vegetales et de l'environnement. 40, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-020-0605-z
Agroclimatology in grasslands
Cobon, David H., Baethgen, Walter E., Landman, Willem, Williams, Allyson, Archer van Garderen, Emma, Johnson, Peter, Malherbe, Johan, Maluleke, Phumzile, Kgakatsi, Ikalafeng Ben and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Agroclimatology in grasslands." Hatfield, Jerry L., Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Prueger, John H. (ed.) Agroclimatology: linking agriculture to climate. United States. American Society of Agronomy.
Predicting the extreme conditions in northern Australia associated with the February 2019 rainfall event
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. and Hawcroft, D.M.. 2020. "Predicting the extreme conditions in northern Australia associated with the February 2019 rainfall event." Bureau of Meteorology Climate Training 2020. Melbourne, Australia 12 - 12 Mar 2020
Modern artificial intelligence model development for undergraduate student performance prediction: an investigation on engineering mathematics courses
Deo, Ravinesh C., Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Al-Ansari, Nadhir, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Langlands, Trevor and Galligan, Linda. 2020. "Modern artificial intelligence model development for undergraduate student performance prediction: an investigation on engineering mathematics courses." IEEE Access. 8, pp. 136697-136724. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3010938
Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry
Cobon, D. H., Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kodur, S., Simpson, M. and Jarvis, C.. 2020. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry." Weather, Climate and Society. 12 (1), pp. 3-14. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0018.1
Probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts using semiparametric d-vine copula-based quantile regression
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Khan, Shahjahan. 2020. "Probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts using semiparametric d-vine copula-based quantile regression." Samui, Pijush, Bui, Dieu Tien, Chakraborty, Subrata and Deo, Ravinesh C. (ed.) Handbook of probabilistic models. Oxford, United Kingdom. Elsevier. pp. 203-227
Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." The Rangeland Journal. 41 (3), pp. 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ18004
Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010
Cobon, David, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Jarvis, Chelsea, Carter, John, Stone, Grant and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010." Crop and Pasture Science. 70 (7), pp. 634-647. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP18482
Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in australia
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2018. Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in australia. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland. https://doi.org/10.26192/xa1p-8373
Copula statistical models for analyzing stochastic dependencies of systemic drought risk and potential adaptation strategies
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod and Khan, Shahjahan. 2019. "Copula statistical models for analyzing stochastic dependencies of systemic drought risk and potential adaptation strategies." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 33 (3), pp. 779-799. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01662-6
Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Attard, Steve, Cobon, David and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning." European Journal of Agronomy. 104, pp. 37-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.005
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study
Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kouadio, L., Cashen, M., Anwar, M. and Cobon, D.. 2018. Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study. Nnew South Wales, Australia. NSW Department of Primary Industries.
History of drought management in Australia
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, McRae, David and Kouadio, Louis. 2017. "History of drought management in Australia." Eslamien, Saied and Eslamien, Faezeh (ed.) Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity: Management of Drought and Water Scarcity. United States. CRC Press. pp. 423-448
Development of the Australian Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, C., Cobon, D., Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Guillory, L.. 2019. "Development of the Australian Drought Monitor." AMOS-ICTMO 2019 Conference. Darwin, Australia 11 - 15 Jun 2019 Australia.
Copula-based agricultural conditional value-at-risk modelling for geographical diversifications in wheat farming portfolio management
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod and Khan, Shahjahan. 2018. "Copula-based agricultural conditional value-at-risk modelling for geographical diversifications in wheat farming portfolio management." Weather and Climate Extremes. 21, pp. 76-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.07.002
Modeling the joint influence of multiple synoptic-scale, climate mode indices on Australian wheat yield using a vine copula-based approach
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, An-Vo, Duc-Anh and Khan, Shahjahan. 2018. "Modeling the joint influence of multiple synoptic-scale, climate mode indices on Australian wheat yield using a vine copula-based approach." European Journal of Agronomy. 98, pp. 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2018.05.006
Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Khan, Shahjahan. 2017. "Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones." Agricultural Water Management. 191, pp. 153-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.06.010
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil
Ghahramani, Afshin, Berndt, Alexandre, Cobon, David, Banhazi, Thomas and Ji, Boyu. 2017. "Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil." Parapinski, Marina, Carbonare, Maryon Strack Dalle and Schmidt, Patrick (ed.) 54th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Society of Animal Science: A new View of Animal Science: Challenges and Perspectives. Foz do Iguacu, Brasil 24 - 28 Jun 2017 Foz do Iguacu, Brazil.
Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.
Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change
Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea
Cobon, David H., Ewai, Maureen, Inape, Kasis and Bourke, R. Michael. 2016. "Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea." Agricultural Systems. 145, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .