Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture

Article

Darbyshire, Rebecca, Crean, Jason, Cashen, Michael, Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin, Broadfoot, Kim, Simpson, Marja, Cobon, David, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Kodur, Shreevatsa. 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture." The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 64 (4), pp. 1034-1058. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Article Title

Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture

ERA Journal ID18331
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsDarbyshire, Rebecca (Author), Crean, Jason (Author), Cashen, Michael (Author), Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin (Author), Broadfoot, Kim (Author), Simpson, Marja (Author), Cobon, David (Author), Pudmenzky, Christa (Author), Kouadio, Louis (Author) and Kodur, Shreevatsa (Author)
Journal TitleThe Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Journal Citation64 (4), pp. 1034-1058
Number of Pages25
Year2020
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISSN1364-985X
1467-8489
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Web Address (URL)https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (forecasts) aim to reduce climate-related productivity risk by helping farmers make decisions that minimise losses in poor years and maximise profits in good years. Most Australian forecast valuations have focused on fertiliser decisions to wheat operations, and few assessments have evaluated the benefit of incremental improvements of forecast skill. These gaps have limited our understanding of forecast value to the broader agriculture sector and the benefit of investments to improve forecast skill. To address these gaps, we consistently assessed forecast value for seven Australian case studies (southern grains, northern grains, southern beef, northern beef, lamb, cotton, and sugar). We implemented a three-stage methodology which consisted of engagement with industry practitioners; modelling production under different climatic and environmental conditions; and economic modelling to evaluate forecast value for eleven levels of forecast skill. Our results show that forecast value was often low and highly variable. Value was found to vary based on forecast attributes (forecast skill, resolution and state), industry application and prevailing conditions (environmental and market). This is the first Australian valuation study where the same methodological approach was applied across multiple industries, incremental improvements in skill were valued, and prevailing conditions were explicitly evaluated for impact on value.

KeywordsAustralia, beef, cattle, cotton, grains, lamb, seasonal forecast, sheep, sugar
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380101. Agricultural economics
380105. Environment and resource economics
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
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Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Primary Industries, New South Wales
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Spatiotemporal assessment of irrigation performance of the Kou Valley irrigation scheme in Burkina Faso using satellite remote sensing-derived indicators
Sawadogo, Alidou, Kouadio, Louis, Traore, Farid, Zwart, Sander J., Hessels, Tim and Gundogdu, Kemal S.. 2020. "Spatiotemporal assessment of irrigation performance of the Kou Valley irrigation scheme in Burkina Faso using satellite remote sensing-derived indicators." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 9 (8), pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9080484
Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought
Nguyen, Hanh, Otkin, Jason A., Wheeler, Matthew C., Hope, Pandora, Trewin, Blair and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2020. "Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 21 (10), pp. 2309-2324. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0042.1
Win-win: Improved irrigation management saves water and increases yield for robusta coffee farms in Vietnam
Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Kouadio, Louis, Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Rafiei, Vahid, Scobie, Michael and Stone, Roger. 2020. "Win-win: Improved irrigation management saves water and increases yield for robusta coffee farms in Vietnam." Agricultural Water Management. 241, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106350
Mathematical modelling of non-local spore dispersion of wind-borne pathogens causing fungal diseases
El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Karjoun, Hasan, Kouadio, Louis and El Jarroudi, Moussa. 2020. "Mathematical modelling of non-local spore dispersion of wind-borne pathogens causing fungal diseases." Applied Mathematics and Computation. 376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2020.125107
Weather-based predictive modeling of wheat stripe rust infection in Morocco
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Lahlali, Rachid, Kouadio, Louis, Denis, Antoine, Belleflamme, Alexandre, El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Boulif, Mohammed, Mahyou, Hamid and Tychon, Bernard. 2020. "Weather-based predictive modeling of wheat stripe rust infection in Morocco." Agronomy. 10 (2). https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10020280
Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant, Carter, John, McKeon, Greg, Zhang, Baisen and Heidemann, Hanna. 2020. "Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia." European Journal of Agronomy. 114 (126002), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126002
Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod, Stone, Roger, Henry, Ross, Laderach, Peter, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Cobon, David, Marcussen, Torben, Cliffe, Neil, Kristiansen, Paul and Pischke, Frederik. 2020. "Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 161 (3), pp. 465-478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02679-5
Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Stone, Gordon and Stone, Roger. 2020. "Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises." Agronomy for Sustainable Development: sciences des productions vegetales et de l'environnement. 40, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-020-0605-z
Agroclimatology in grasslands
Cobon, David H., Baethgen, Walter E., Landman, Willem, Williams, Allyson, Archer van Garderen, Emma, Johnson, Peter, Malherbe, Johan, Maluleke, Phumzile, Kgakatsi, Ikalafeng Ben and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Agroclimatology in grasslands." Hatfield, Jerry L., Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Prueger, John H. (ed.) Agroclimatology: linking agriculture to climate. United States. American Society of Agronomy.
Agronomic performance of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and fertilizer use efficiency as affected by controlled and non-controlled traffic of farm machinery
Hussein, Mahmood A. H., Antille, Diogenes L., Chen, Guangnan, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Tullberg, Jeff N.. 2018. "Agronomic performance of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and fertilizer use efficiency as affected by controlled and non-controlled traffic of farm machinery." 2018 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Annual International Meeting (ASABE 2018). Detroit, United States 29 Jul - 01 Aug 2018 United States. https://doi.org/10.13031/aim.201800250
Estimating in-season actual evapotranspiration over a large-scale irrigation scheme in resource-limited conditions
Sawadogo, Estimating in-season actual evapotranspiration over a large-scale irrigation scheme in resource-limited conditions, Gundogdu, Kemal, Traore, Farid, Kouadio, Louis and Hessels, Tim. 2020. "Estimating in-season actual evapotranspiration over a large-scale irrigation scheme in resource-limited conditions." Proceedings of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. 73 (10), pp. 1473-1480. https://doi.org/10.7546/CRABS.2020.10.18
Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: a global inventory
Bronnimann, Stefan, Allan, Rob, Ashcroft, Linden, Baer, Saba, Barriendos, Mariano, Brazdil, Rudolf, Brugnara, Yuri, Brunet, Manola, Brunetti, Michele, Chimani, Barbara, Cornes, Richard, Dominguez-Castro, Fernando, Filipiak, Janusz, Founda, Dimitra, Garcia Herrera, Ricardo, Gergis, Joelle, Grab, Stefan, Hannak, Lisa, Huhtamaa, Heli, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: a global inventory." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (12), pp. ES389-ES413. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-00
Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia’s wheat growing regions
Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Henry, Ross, Adeyinka, Adewuyi Ayodele, Stone, Roger, Marcussen, Torben and Kouadio, Louis. 2019. "Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia’s wheat growing regions." Climate Risk Management. 24, pp. 13-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.002
Improved prediction of farm nitrous oxide emission through an understanding of the interaction among climate extremes, soil nitrogen dynamics and irrigation water
Maraseni, Tek and Kodur, Shreevatsa. 2019. "Improved prediction of farm nitrous oxide emission through an understanding of the interaction among climate extremes, soil nitrogen dynamics and irrigation water." Journal of Environmental Management. 248, pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109278
Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system
Slivinski, Laura C., Compo, Gilbert P., Whitaker, Jeffrey S., Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Giese, Benjamin S., McColl, Chesley, Allan, Rob, Yin, Xungang, Vose, Russell, Titchner, Holly, Kennedy, John, Spencer, Lawrence J., Ashcroft, Linden, Bronnimann, Stefan, Brunet, Manola, Camuffo, Dario, Cornes, Richard, Cram, Thomas A., Crouthamel, Richard, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145 (724), pp. 2876-2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry
Cobon, D. H., Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kodur, S., Simpson, M. and Jarvis, C.. 2020. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry." Weather, Climate and Society. 12 (1), pp. 3-14. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0018.1
Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." The Rangeland Journal. 41 (3), pp. 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ18004
Building and Delivering Real-World, Integrated Sustainability Solutions: Insights, Methods and Case-Study Applications
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Porcelli, Tracy A., Potgieter, Andries B., Kouadio, Louis, Huete, Alfredo and Guo, Wei. 2019. "Building and Delivering Real-World, Integrated Sustainability Solutions: Insights, Methods and Case-Study Applications." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 7, pp. 1-3. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00071
Sustainable production of Robusta coffee under a changing climate: a 10-year monitoring of fertilizer management in coffee farms in Vietnam and Indonesia
Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Sustainable production of Robusta coffee under a changing climate: a 10-year monitoring of fertilizer management in coffee farms in Vietnam and Indonesia." Agronomy. 9, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9090499
Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010
Cobon, David, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Jarvis, Chelsea, Carter, John, Stone, Grant and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010." Crop and Pasture Science. 70 (7), pp. 634-647. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP18482
Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Images and Support Vector Machine to Assess the Changes in Agricultural Irrigated Areas in the Mogtedo Region, Burkina Faso
Traore, Farid, Bonkoungou, Joachim, Compaore, Jerome, Kouadio, Louis, Wellens, Joost, Hallot, Eric and Tychon, Bernard. 2019. "Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Images and Support Vector Machine to Assess the Changes in Agricultural Irrigated Areas in the Mogtedo Region, Burkina Faso." Remote Sensing. 11 (12), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11121442
Environmental and economic impacts and trade-offs from simultaneous management of soil constraints, nitrogen and water
Kodur, Shreevatsa, Shrestha, Uttam Babu, Maraseni, Tek Narayan and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2019. "Environmental and economic impacts and trade-offs from simultaneous management of soil constraints, nitrogen and water." Journal of Cleaner Production. 222, pp. 960-970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.079
Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Attard, Steve, Cobon, David and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning." European Journal of Agronomy. 104, pp. 37-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.005
Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models approach)
Kouadio, Louis, Marcussen, Torben and McRae, David. 2017. Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models approach). Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Crop production modelling under climate change and regional adaptation
Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben and Cockfield, Geoff. 2017. Crop production modelling under climate change and regional adaptation. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study
Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kouadio, L., Cashen, M., Anwar, M. and Cobon, D.. 2018. Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study. Nnew South Wales, Australia. NSW Department of Primary Industries.
An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia
Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kouadio, Louis, Power, Brendan, Marcussen, Torben, McRae, David and Cockfield, Geoff. 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia." Agricultural Water Management. 196, pp. 124-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.10.026
History of drought management in Australia
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, McRae, David and Kouadio, Louis. 2017. "History of drought management in Australia." Eslamien, Saied and Eslamien, Faezeh (ed.) Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity: Management of Drought and Water Scarcity. United States. CRC Press. pp. 423-448
Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report
Mushtaq, Shabaz, Marcussen, Torben, Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Stone, Roger, Roberts, Julian, Mehmet, Russell, Pilling, Debbie and Henry, Ross. 2018. Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report. University of Southern Queensland.
Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben, Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Stone, Roger, Roberts, Julian, Mehmet, Russell, Pilling, Debbie and Henry, Ross. 2017. Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report. University of Southern Queensland.
Development of the Australian Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, C., Cobon, D., Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Guillory, L.. 2019. "Development of the Australian Drought Monitor." AMOS-ICTMO 2019 Conference. Darwin, Australia 11 - 15 Jun 2019 Australia.
The value of the Australian Drought Monitor to the cattle industry
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2019. "The value of the Australian Drought Monitor to the cattle industry." International Tropical Agriculture Conference (TropAg 2019). Brisbane, Australia 11 - 13 Nov 2019
Artificial intelligence approach for the prediction of Robusta coffee yield using soil fertility properties
Kouadio, Louis, Deo, Ravinesh C., Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Adamowski, Jan F., Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Nguyen, Van Phuong. 2018. "Artificial intelligence approach for the prediction of Robusta coffee yield using soil fertility properties." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 155, pp. 324-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2018.10.014
Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: a critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions in the development of Septoria leaf blotch
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Junk, Jurgen, Bock, Clive, Diouf, Abdoul Aziz and Delfosse, Philippe. 2017. "Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: a critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions in the development of Septoria leaf blotch." Field Crops Research. 213, pp. 12-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.07.012
Strategic tillage in conservation agricultural systems of north-eastern Australia: why, where, when and how?
Dang, Yash Pal, Balzer, Anna, Crawford, Mark, Rincon-Florez, Vivian, Liu, Hongwei, Melland, Alice Rowena, Antille, Diogenes, Kodur, Shreevatsa, Bell, Michael John, Whish, Jeremy Patrick Milroy, Lai, Yunru, Seymour, Nikki, Costa Carvalhais, Lilia and Schenk, Peer. 2018. "Strategic tillage in conservation agricultural systems of north-eastern Australia: why, where, when and how?" Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 25 (2), pp. 1000-1015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8937-1
Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals
Bundschuh, Jochen, Maity, Jyoti Prakash, Mushtaq, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Vithange, Meththika, Seneweera, Saman, Schneider, Jerusa, Bhattacharya, Prosun, Khan, Nasreen Islam, Hamawand, Ihsan, Guilherme, Luiz R. G., Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Parvez, Faruque, Morales-Simfors, Nury, Ghaze, Sara, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Chen, Chien-Yen. 2017. "Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals." Science of the Total Environment. 581-582, pp. 87-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.208
Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Goodwin, I., Barlow, E. and Eckard, R.. 2018. "Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 250-251, pp. 217-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.12.261
Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R., Goodwin, I. and Barlow, E.. 2018. "Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia ." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 248, pp. 502-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.021
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil
Ghahramani, Afshin, Berndt, Alexandre, Cobon, David, Banhazi, Thomas and Ji, Boyu. 2017. "Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil." Parapinski, Marina, Carbonare, Maryon Strack Dalle and Schmidt, Patrick (ed.) 54th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Society of Animal Science: A new View of Animal Science: Challenges and Perspectives. Foz do Iguacu, Brasil 24 - 28 Jun 2017 Foz do Iguacu, Brazil.
Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Barlow, E., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R. and Goodwin, I.. 2017. "Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia." International Journal of Biometeorology: the description, causes, and implications of climatic change. 61 (10), pp. 1849-1862. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1370-9
Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.
Agronomic performance of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and fertiliser use efficiency as affected by controlled and non-controlled traffic of farm machinery
Hussein, Mahmood A. H., Antille, Diogenes L., Chen, Guangnan, Luhaib, Adnan A. A., Kodur, Shreevatsa and Tullberg, Jeff N.. 2017. "Agronomic performance of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and fertiliser use efficiency as affected by controlled and non-controlled traffic of farm machinery." 2017 ASABE Annual International Meeting. Spokane, United States 16 - 19 Jul 2017 Spokane, Washington. https://doi.org/10.13031/aim.201700586
A threshold-based weather model for predicting stripe rust infection in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Bock, Clive H., El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Junk, Jürgen, Pasquali, Matias, Maraite, Henri and Delfosse, Philippe. 2017. "A threshold-based weather model for predicting stripe rust infection in winter wheat." Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology. 101 (5), pp. 693-703. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-12-16-1766-RE
Climate, vegetation cover and dust storm events in arid and semi-arid regions of Australia - relationships, models and predictions
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2016. Climate, vegetation cover and dust storm events in arid and semi-arid regions of Australia - relationships, models and predictions. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland. https://doi.org/10.26192/5bf5fa61ed34e
Current climate data rescue activities in Australia
Ashcroft, Linden, Allan, Rob, Bridgman, Howard, Gergis, Joelle, Pudmenzky, Christa and Thornton, Ken. 2016. "Current climate data rescue activities in Australia." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 33 (12), pp. 1323-1324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6189-5
Advancing VARIwise towards autonomous irrigation and a grower's guide
McCarthy, Alison, Antille, Diogenes, Skowronski, Victor, Zhao, Bo, Kodur, Shreevatsa, Nguyen-Ky, Tai and Raine, Steven. 2016. Advancing VARIwise towards autonomous irrigation and a grower's guide. Narrabri, Australia. Cotton Research and Development Corporation.
Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change
Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea
Cobon, David H., Ewai, Maureen, Inape, Kasis and Bourke, R. Michael. 2016. "Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea." Agricultural Systems. 145, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012
Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat
Junk, J., Kouadio, L., Delfosse, P. and El Jarroudi, M.. 2016. "Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 135 (3-4), pp. 439-451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Integrating the impact of wheat fungal diseases in the Belgian crop yield forecasting system (B-CYFS)
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Bertrand, Martin, Curnel, Yannick, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe, Hoffmann, Lucien, Oger, Robert and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Integrating the impact of wheat fungal diseases in the Belgian crop yield forecasting system (B-CYFS)." European Journal of Agronomy. 40, pp. 8-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2012.02.003
Estimating regional wheat yield from the shape of decreasing curves of green area index temporal profiles retrieved from MODIS data
Kouadio, Louis, Duveiller, Gregory, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Defourny, Pierre and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating regional wheat yield from the shape of decreasing curves of green area index temporal profiles retrieved from MODIS data." International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. 18 (1), pp. 111-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.01.009
Weather Detective: An Australian citizen science project
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2017. "Weather Detective: An Australian citizen science project." AMOS/MSNZ Conference and ANZ Climate Forum 2017. Canberra, Australia 07 - 10 Feb 2017
Uptake, transport, accumulation and retranslocation of potassium in grapevine rootstocks (Vitis)
Kodur, S., Tisdall, J. M., Tang, C. and Walker, R. R.. 2011. "Uptake, transport, accumulation and retranslocation of potassium in grapevine rootstocks (Vitis)." Vitis: journal of grapevine research. 50 (4), pp. 145-149.
Effects of juice pH and potassium on juice and wine quality, and regulation of potassium in grapevines through rootstocks (Vitis): A short review
Kodur, S.. 2011. "Effects of juice pH and potassium on juice and wine quality, and regulation of potassium in grapevines through rootstocks (Vitis): A short review." Vitis: journal of grapevine research. 50 (1), pp. 1-6.
Regulation of berry quality parameters in 'Shiraz' grapevines through rootstocks (Vitis)
Kodur, S., Tisdall, J. M., Clingeleffer, P. R. and Walker, R. R.. 2013. "Regulation of berry quality parameters in 'Shiraz' grapevines through rootstocks (Vitis)." Vitis: journal of grapevine research. 52 (3), pp. 128-128.
Modelling deep drainage rates of irrigation strategies under cropping sequence in subhumid, subtropical Australia
Kodur, S. and Robinson, J. B.. 2014. "Modelling deep drainage rates of irrigation strategies under cropping sequence in subhumid, subtropical Australia ." Irrigation and Drainage. 63 (3), pp. 365-372. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.1813
Deep drainage estimates for irrigated crop rotations in subhumid, subtropical Australia
Kodur, S., Robinson, J. B., Foley, J. L. and Silburn, D. M.. 2014. "Deep drainage estimates for irrigated crop rotations in subhumid, subtropical Australia." Irrigation and Drainage. 63 (5), pp. 692-697. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.1872
Soil-hydrological responses to rainfall variation in a subtropical Australian landscape
Kodur, S., Robinson, J. B., Foley, J. L. and Silburn, D. M.. 2015. "Soil-hydrological responses to rainfall variation in a subtropical Australian landscape." Irrigation and Drainage. 64 (5), pp. 694-702. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.1946
Do single, double or triple fungicide sprays differentially affect the grain quality in winter wheat?
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Junk, Jurgen, Beyer, Marco, Pasquali, Matias, Bock, Clive and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Do single, double or triple fungicide sprays differentially affect the grain quality in winter wheat?" Field Crops Research. 183, pp. 257-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.08.012
Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale
Kouadio, Louis, Stone, Roger, Tixier, Philippe, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Marcussen, Torben. 2015. "Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale." Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015). Brisbane, Australia 16 - 18 Nov 2015
Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Potgieter, Andries, McLean, Greg and Hill, Harvey. 2015. "Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool." Agricultural Sciences. 6 (7), pp. 686-698. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.67066
Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Williams, Allyson, White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff, Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis. 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, A. L., Mackels, C., Tychon, B., Delfosse, P. and Bock, C. H.. 2015. "A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat." Plant Pathology. 64 (2), pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.12252
Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture
Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Broad scale mapping of vegetation cover across Australia from rainfall and temperature data
Pudmenzky, Christa, King, Rachel and Butler, Harry. 2015. "Broad scale mapping of vegetation cover across Australia from rainfall and temperature data." Journal of Arid Environments. 120, pp. 55-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.04.010
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
Applications program examples 2015
Pudmenzky, Christa and Stone, Roger. 2015. "Applications program examples 2015." 8th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2015). Santiago, Chile 12 - 14 Oct 2015 Chile.
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger, Butler, Harry and Allan, Robert. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" 4th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2011). De Bilt, The Netherlands 21 - 23 Sep 2011
Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L., Beyer, M., Tychon, B. and Delfosse, P.. 2013. "Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2013 APS-MSA Joint Meeting. United States 10 - 14 Aug 2013 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-103-6-S2.1
In Queensland, what legislative changes or modifications need to be implemented in relation to light pollution problems for nesting sea turtles and hatchlings?
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2013. In Queensland, what legislative changes or modifications need to be implemented in relation to light pollution problems for nesting sea turtles and hatchlings? Christa Pudmenzky.
Aeolian abrasion and modes of fine particle production from natural red dune sands: an experimental study
Bullard, Joanna E., McTainsh, Grant H. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2004. "Aeolian abrasion and modes of fine particle production from natural red dune sands: an experimental study." Sedimentology. 51 (5), pp. 1103-1125. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2004.00662.x
Climate variability analysis for Diuron application
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Marcussen, Torben, Pudmenzky, Christa and Maraseni, Tek. 2012. Climate variability analysis for Diuron application. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting
Stone, Roger, Everingham, Yvette, Pudmenzky, Christa and Marcussen, Torben. 2013. "Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting." Climate Adaptation 2013 (NCCARF 2013). Sydney, Australia 25 - 27 Jun 2013 Australia.
Links between climate variability, vegetation cover and dust storm frequency in Australia
Pudmenzky, Christa and Butler, Harry. 2013. "Links between climate variability, vegetation cover and dust storm frequency in Australia." Climate Adaptation 2013 (NCCARF 2013). Sydney, Australia 25 - 27 Jun 2013 Australia.
El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Butler, Harry. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" WCRP 2011: Climate Research in Service to Society. Denver, United States 24 - 28 Oct 2011 Geneva, Switzerland.
Clement Wragge’s ship logbook compilations
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2012. "Clement Wragge’s ship logbook compilations." 5th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2012). Toulouse, France 28 - 30 Nov 2012 France.
20CR and historical dust storms in Australia
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2012. "20CR and historical dust storms in Australia." 5th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2012). Toulouse, France 28 - 30 Nov 2012 France.
Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands
Bullard, Joanna E., McTainsh, Grant H. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2007. "Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands." Sedimentology. 54 (1), pp. 169-182. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2006.00827.x
El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?
Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Butler, H. and Allan, R.. 2011. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?" American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. San Francisco, California, United States 05 - 09 Dec 2011 United States.
Development of a QEMSCAN® coal analysis capability
van Zyl, J. and Pudmenzky, C.. 2008. "Development of a QEMSCAN® coal analysis capability." Automated Mineralogy 08. Brisbane, Australia 27 - 28 Aug 2008 Australia.
Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia
Anwar, M. R., Rodriguez, D., Liu, D. L., Power, S. and O'Leary, G. J.. 2008. "Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 59 (2), pp. 112-126. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR07061
Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .