Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia

Article


Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R., Goodwin, I. and Barlow, E.. 2018. "Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia ." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 248, pp. 502-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.021
Article Title

Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia

ERA Journal ID1951
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsJarvis, C. (Author), Darbyshire, R. (Author), Eckard, R. (Author), Goodwin, I. (Author) and Barlow, E. (Author)
Journal TitleAgriculture and Forest Meteorology
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Journal Citation248, pp. 502-510
Number of Pages9
Year2018
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0168-1923
1873-2240
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.021
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192317303416?via%3Dihub
Abstract

Seasonal timing of winegrape maturity is influenced by weather conditions. Significant changes to day-of-year-of-maturity (DOYM), both earlier and later than average, causes logistical problems during harvest, impacting on grape and wine quality. Shifts in climate circulation patterns resulting from atmospheric teleconnections to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events can alter seasonal weather across Australia. Events tend to peak in the austral spring (IOD) and summer (ENSO), when vine and berry development is susceptible to anomalous weather. To investigate the impacts of ENSO and IOD on the Australian winegrape growing sector, SST data and annual grape maturity data from a variety of wine growing regions were collected and analysed. Mean DOYM values during IOD events were significantly (P < 0.05) different for the largest number of vineyard blocks, with IOD positive (IOD+) events linked to earliest mean DOYM and IOD negative (IOD−) events linked to latest mean DOYM. ENSO and IOD combined events (ENSOIOD) had the largest difference between earliest mean DOYM and latest mean DOYM (42 days). Results for ENSO only grouped events were mixed, with no clear pattern emerging. This finding suggests that the IOD had more impact on DOYM than ENSO and that the IOD superseded the ENSO signal in combined events for the regions included in this study. The results indicate that improved seasonal forecasting of IOD, ENSO, and combined events would allow the Australian winegrape sector to better plan for changes to timing of grape maturity and associated impacts on grape and wine quality, vineyard management, and harvest logistics.

KeywordsLa Niña, large scale climate driver, Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures, viticulture, seasonal forecasting
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
300805. Oenology and viticulture
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Melbourne
Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales
Agriculture Victoria
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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