Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019

Article


Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Article Title

Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019

ERA Journal ID211519
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCowan, T. (Author), Wheeler, M. C. (Author), Alves, O. (Author), Narsey, S. (Author), de Burgh-Day, C. (Author), Griffiths, M. (Author), Jarvis, C. (Author), Cobon, D. H. (Author) and Hawcroft, M. K. (Author)
Journal TitleWeather and Climate Extremes
Journal Citation26, pp. 1-14
Article Number100232
Number of Pages14
Year2019
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN2212-0947
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300970
Abstract

From late January to early February 2019, a quasi-stationary monsoon depression situated over northeast Australia caused devastating floods, killing an estimated 625,000 head of cattle in northwest Queensland, and inundating over 3 000 homes in the coastal city of Townsville. The monsoon depression lasted ~10 days, driving daily rainfall accumulations exceeding 200 mm/day, maximum temperatures 8–10 °C below normal, and wind gusts above 70 km/h. In this study, the atmospheric conditions during the event and its predictability on the weekly to subseasonal range are investigated. Results show that during the event, the tropical convective signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation was over the western Pacific, and likely contributed to the heavy rainfall, however the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was not in the usual phase for increased rainfall over Queensland. Over the northern Tasman Sea, an anticyclone helped maintain a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode and promote onshore easterly flow. Somewhat consistent with these climate drivers, the monthly rainfall outlook for February issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on 31 January provided no indication of the event, yet forecasts, not available to the public, of weekly-averaged conditions by the Bureau's dynamical subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system were more successful. For the week of 31 January to 6 February the prediction system forecast a more than doubling of the probability of extreme (highest quintile) weekly rainfall a week prior to the event, along with increased probabilities of extremely low (lowest quintile) maximum temperatures and extreme (highest quintile) wind speeds. Ensemble-mean weekly rainfall amounts, however, were considerably underestimated by the prediction system, even in forecasts initialised at the start of the peak flooding week, consistent with other state-of-the-art dynamical S2S prediction systems. Despite this, one of the individual ensemble members of the Bureau's prediction system did manage to forecast close to 85% of the magnitude of the rainfall across the most heavily impacted region of northwest Queensland a week before the event. Predicting this exceptional event beyond two weeks appears beyond our current capability despite the dynamical system forecasts showing good skill in forecasting the broad-scale atmospheric conditions north of Australia a week prior.

Keywordsextreme; rainfall; temperature; flood; forecast; skill; Madden-Julian Oscillation; subseasonal
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370108. Meteorology
370202. Climatology
Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q56z3/forecasting-the-extreme-rainfall-low-temperatures-and-strong-winds-associated-with-the-northern-queensland-floods-of-february-2019

Download files

  • 207
    total views
  • 91
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 1
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review
Heidemann, Hanna, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Ribbe, Joachim, Freund, Mandy and Power, Scott. 2023. "Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review ." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change. 14 (3). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.823
Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes
Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Mathew C. and Cowan, Tim. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 335-357. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1
Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts
Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Mattew C., Otkin, Jason A., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cowan, Timothy. 2023. "Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 24 (6), p. 1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0033.1
Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Nino–Southern Oscillation
Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2021. "Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Nino–Southern Oscillation." Journal of Climate. 34 (6), pp. 2205-2218. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0232.1
Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe
Domeisen, Daniela I. V., White, Christopher J., Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla, Munoz, Angel G., Janiga, Matthew A., Vitart, Frederic, Wulff, C. Ole, Antoine, Salome, Ardilouze, Constantin, Batte, Lauriane, Bloomfield, Hannah C., Brayshaw, David J., Camargo, Suzana J., Charlton-Perez, Andrew, Collins, Dan, Cowan, Tim, del Mar Chaves, Maria, Ferranti, Laura, Gomez, Rosario, ..., Tian, Di. 2022. "Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
NEXUS project: pathways for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation of Australian Livestock Industries
Cullen, Brendan R., Harrison, Matthew T., Mayberry, Dianne, Cobon, David H., An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Christie, Karen M., Bilotto, Franco, Talukder, Saranika, Perry, Lindsey, Eckard, Richard J. and Davison, Thomas M.. 2022. "NEXUS project: pathways for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation of Australian Livestock Industries." 8th International Greenhouse Gas and Animal Agriculture Conference (GGAA 2022). Orlando, United States 05 - 09 Jun 2022 Florida, United States.
Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2022. "Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall
Heidemann, Hanna, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Cobon, David H.. 2022. "The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 35 (1), pp. 425-444. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0264.1
Drought Outlook Products Review
Cobon, David, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Reardon-Smith, Kate. 2019. Drought Outlook Products Review. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions
Cowan, Tim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew C. and Griffiths, Morwenna. 2020. "Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions." Climate Services. 19, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100182
Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, Christa, Guillory, Laura, Cobon, David H. and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2020. Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor. Toowoomba, Queensland. University of Southern Queensland.
Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Hudson, Debra, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Griffiths, Morwenna and Young, Griffith. 2022. Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia. Australia. Bureau of Meteorology.
Impacts and adaptation to climate change in beef production systems in central Queensland
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2008. "Impacts and adaptation to climate change in beef production systems in central Queensland." 8th International Rangeland Congress (IGC-IRC 2008). Hohhot, China 29 Jun - 05 Jul 2008 Guangzhou, China.
Impacts of climate change on regulated and non-regulated water systems in Australia. In Multifunctional grasslands in a changing world
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2008. "Impacts of climate change on regulated and non-regulated water systems in Australia. In Multifunctional grasslands in a changing world." 8th International Rangeland Congress (IGC-IRC 2008). Hohhot, China 29 Jun - 05 Jul 2008 Guangzhou, China.
Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 Christchurch, New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 Christchurch, New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – South East Queensland Western Catchments Report
Cobon, David and Toombs, Nathan. 2007. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – South East Queensland Western Catchments Report. Toowoomba, Queensland. Department of Natural Resources and Water.
Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – Queensland Murray Darling Basin Report
Cobon, David and Toombs, Nathan. 2007. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – Queensland Murray Darling Basin Report. Toowoomba, Queensland. Department of Natural Resources and Water.
Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – Desert Channels Queensland Report
Cobon, David and Toombs, Nathan. 2007. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management: Queensland Case Studies – Desert Channels Queensland Report. Toowoomba, Queensland. Department of Natural Resources and Water.
Practical Adaptation to Climate Change in Regional Natural Resource Management: Queensland Case Studies – Fitzroy Basin Report – Part B
Cobon, David, Toombs, Nathan and Zhang, Xike. 2007. Practical Adaptation to Climate Change in Regional Natural Resource Management: Queensland Case Studies – Fitzroy Basin Report – Part B. Toowoomba, Queensland. Department of Natural Resources and Water.
Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program
Cobon, David, Jarvis, Chelsea, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Guillory, Laura, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2021. "Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program." The Rangeland Journal. 43 (3), pp. 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20074
Queensland’s multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources
McKeon, G., Stone, R., Ahrens, D., Cobon, D., Irvine, S. and Syktus, J.. 2021. "Queensland’s multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources." The Rangeland Journal. 43 (3), pp. 121-142. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20089
Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service
Hope, Pandora, Zhao, Mei, Abhik, S., Tolhurst, Gen, McKay, Roseanna C., Rauniyar, Surendra P., Bettio, Lynette, Ramchurn, Avijeet, Lim, Eun-Pa, Pepler, Acacia S, Cowan, Tim and Watkins, Andrew B.. 2022. "Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (3), pp. S7-S13. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0253.1
More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming
Cai, Wenju, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Borlace, Simon, Collins, Matthew, Cowan, Tim, McPhaden, Michael J., Timmermann, Axel, Power, Scott, Brown, Josephine, Menkes, Christophe, Ngari, Arona, Vincent, Emmanuel M. and Widlansky, Matthew J.. 2012. "More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming." Nature. 488 (7411), pp. 365-369. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11358
Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast
Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cobon, David. 2022. Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Australian Drought Monitor
Cobon, David, Gacenga, Francis, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Stone, Roger, Guillory, Laura, Jackson, J, Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Meat & Livestock Australia. 2022. Australian Drought Monitor. Toowoomba. https://doi.org/10.26192/dmek-v625
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, Sugata and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2021. "Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting. 37 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0046.1
Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models
Narsey, S. Y., Brown, J. R., Colman, R. A., Delage, F., Power, S. B., Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H.. 2020. "Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (13), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816
The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019
Hawcroft, Matt, Lavender, Sally, Copsey, Dan, Milton, Sean, Rodriguez, Jose, Tennant, Warren, Webster, Stuart and Cowan, Tim. 2021. "The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019." Monthly Weather Review. 149, pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1
Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew, Hodges, Kevin I., Tan, Mou Leong and Haywood, James M.. 2021. "Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate. 34 (9), pp. 3401-3419. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0604.1
Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing
Kang, Sarah M., Xie, Shang-Ping, Shin, Yechul, Kim, Hanjun, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Stuecker, Malte F., Xiang, Baoqiang and Hawcroft, Matt. 2020. "Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing." Science Advances. 6 (47). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd3021
Drought outlook development
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Guillory, Laura and Cobon, David. 2021. Drought outlook development. Australia. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).
Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought
Nguyen, Hanh, Otkin, Jason A., Wheeler, Matthew C., Hope, Pandora, Trewin, Blair and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2020. "Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 21 (10), pp. 2309-2324. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0042.1
Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture
Darbyshire, Rebecca, Crean, Jason, Cashen, Michael, Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin, Broadfoot, Kim, Simpson, Marja, Cobon, David, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Kodur, Shreevatsa. 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture." The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 64 (4), pp. 1034-1058. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves
Cowan, Tim, Indorf, Sabine, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E. L.. 2020. "Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves." Nature Climate Change. 10 (6), pp. 505-510. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7
Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States
Cowan, Tim, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Schurer, Andrew, Tett, Simon F. B., Vautard, Robert, Yiou, Pascal, Jezequel, Aglae, Otto, Friederike E. L., Harrington, Luke J. and Ng, Benjamin. 2020. "Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States." Nature Communications. 11 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w
Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469
Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant, Carter, John, McKeon, Greg, Zhang, Baisen and Heidemann, Hanna. 2020. "Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia." European Journal of Agronomy. 114 (126002), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126002
Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod, Stone, Roger, Henry, Ross, Laderach, Peter, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Cobon, David, Marcussen, Torben, Cliffe, Neil, Kristiansen, Paul and Pischke, Frederik. 2020. "Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 161 (3), pp. 465-478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02679-5
Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia
Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Matthew C., Otkin, Jason A., Cowan, Tim, Frost, Andrew and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (6), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103
Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Stone, Gordon and Stone, Roger. 2020. "Integrating El Nino-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises." Agronomy for Sustainable Development: sciences des productions vegetales et de l'environnement. 40, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-020-0605-z
Agroclimatology in grasslands
Cobon, David H., Baethgen, Walter E., Landman, Willem, Williams, Allyson, Archer van Garderen, Emma, Johnson, Peter, Malherbe, Johan, Maluleke, Phumzile, Kgakatsi, Ikalafeng Ben and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Agroclimatology in grasslands." Hatfield, Jerry L., Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Prueger, John H. (ed.) Agroclimatology: linking agriculture to climate. United States. American Society of Agronomy.
Causes of climate change over the historical record
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine. 2019. "Causes of climate change over the historical record." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
Defining the north Australian monsoon onset: A systematic review
Lisonbee, Joel, Ribbe, Joachim and Wheeler, Matthew. 2020. "Defining the north Australian monsoon onset: A systematic review." Progress in Physical Geography: an international review of geographical work in the natural and environmental sciences. 44 (3), pp. 398-418. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133319881107
ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results
Kang, Sarah M., Hawcroft, Matt, Xiang, Baoqiang, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Cazes, Gabriel, Codron, Francis, Crueger, Traute, Deser, Clara, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Kim, Hanjun, Kim, Jiyeong, Kosaka, Yu, Losada, Teresa, Mechoso, Carlos R., Myhre, Gunnar, Seland, Oyvind, Stevens, Bjorn, Watanabe, Masahiro and Yu, Sungduk. 2019. "ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (12), pp. 2589-2606. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0301.1
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry
Cobon, D. H., Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kodur, S., Simpson, M. and Jarvis, C.. 2020. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in the northern Australia beef industry." Weather, Climate and Society. 12 (1), pp. 3-14. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0018.1
Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?
Johnson, B. T., Haywood, J. M. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?" Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 124 (14), pp. 7930-7950. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030568
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
Schurer, Andrew P., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Luterbacher, Jurg, Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Tett, Simon F. B., Zanchettin, Davide and Timmreck, Claudia. 2019. "Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (094019), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model
Hawcroft, M., Haywood, J. M., Collins, M., Jones, A., Jones, A. C. and Stephens, G.. 2017. "Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7-8), pp. 2279-2295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5
Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." The Rangeland Journal. 41 (3), pp. 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ18004
Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave
Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Cowan, Tim and Hegerl, Gabriele C.. 2019. "Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave." Climate Dynamics. 53 (3-4), pp. 2229-2247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model
Hawcroft, Matt, Dacre, Helen, Forbes, Richard, Hodges, Kevin, Shaffrey, Len and Stein, Thorwald. 2017. "Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7), pp. 2255-2278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6
Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010
Cobon, David, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Jarvis, Chelsea, Carter, John, Stone, Grant and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010." Crop and Pasture Science. 70 (7), pp. 634-647. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP18482
The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances
Stephens, Graeme L., Hakuba, Maria Z., Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Behrangi, Ali, Kay, Jennifer E. and Webster, Peter J.. 2016. "The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances." Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4), pp. 135-147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0043-9
The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model
Haywood, Jim M., Jones, Andy, Dunstone, Nick, Milton, Sean, Vellinga, Michael, Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro, Hawcroft, Matt, Kravitz, Ben, Cole, Jason, Watanabe, Shingo and Stephens, Graeme. 2016. "The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model." Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (1), pp. 395-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903
Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models
Zappa, Gieuseppe, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len, Black, Emily and Brayshaw, David J.. 2015. "Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models." Climate Dynamics. 45 (7), pp. 1727-1738. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?
Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len C., Hodges, Kevin I. and Dacre, Helen F.. 2016. "Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?" Climate Dynamics. 47 (3), pp. 679-695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z
Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Attard, Steve, Cobon, David and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning." European Journal of Agronomy. 104, pp. 37-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.005
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study
Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kouadio, L., Cashen, M., Anwar, M. and Cobon, D.. 2018. Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study. Nnew South Wales, Australia. NSW Department of Primary Industries.
Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering
Jones, Anthony C., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Haywood, James M., Jones, Andy, Guo, Xiaoran and Moore, John C.. 2018. "Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering." Earth's Future. 6 (2), pp. 230-251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000720
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Hawcroft, Matt, Walsh, Ella, Hodges, Kevin and Zappa, Giuseppe. 2018. "Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones." Environmental Research Letters. 13 (12), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations
Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Collins, Mat and Jones, Andy. 2018. "The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations." Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3231-3249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4076-8
Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'
Booth, Ben B. B., Harris, Glen R., Jones, Andy, Wilcox, Laura, Hawcroft, Matt and Carslaw, Ken S.. 2018. "Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'." Journal of Climate. 31 (22), pp. 9407-9412. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0369.1
History of drought management in Australia
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, McRae, David and Kouadio, Louis. 2017. "History of drought management in Australia." Eslamien, Saied and Eslamien, Faezeh (ed.) Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity: Management of Drought and Water Scarcity. United States. CRC Press. pp. 423-448
Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties
Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2018. "Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties." Scientific Reports. 8 (1), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31842-3
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study
Christiansen, Bo, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Timothy, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Orth, Rene, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Vautard, Robert, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal. 2018. "Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study." Journal of Climate. 31 (9), pp. 3387-3410. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1
Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Goodwin, I., Barlow, E. and Eckard, R.. 2018. "Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 250-251, pp. 217-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.12.261
Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R., Goodwin, I. and Barlow, E.. 2018. "Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia ." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 248, pp. 502-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.021
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil
Ghahramani, Afshin, Berndt, Alexandre, Cobon, David, Banhazi, Thomas and Ji, Boyu. 2017. "Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil." Parapinski, Marina, Carbonare, Maryon Strack Dalle and Schmidt, Patrick (ed.) 54th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Society of Animal Science: A new View of Animal Science: Challenges and Perspectives. Foz do Iguacu, Brasil 24 - 28 Jun 2017 Foz do Iguacu, Brazil.
Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Barlow, E., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R. and Goodwin, I.. 2017. "Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia." International Journal of Biometeorology: the description, causes, and implications of climatic change. 61 (10), pp. 1849-1862. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1370-9
Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.
Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change
Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea
Cobon, David H., Ewai, Maureen, Inape, Kasis and Bourke, R. Michael. 2016. "Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea." Agricultural Systems. 145, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau
Childress, M.J., Scalzo, R.A., Sim, S.A., Tucker, B.E., Yuan, F., Schmidt, B.P., Cenko, S.B., Silverman, J.M., Contreras, C., Hsiao, E.Y., Phillips, M., Morrell, N., Jha, S.W., McCully, C., Filippenko, A.V., Anderson, J.P., Benetti, S., Bufano, F., de Jaeger, T., ..., Zhou, G.. 2013. "Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau." The Astrophysical Journal: an international review of astronomy and astronomical physics. 770 (1), pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stt813
Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242
Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1
Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.