Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

Article


Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Article Title

Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

ERA Journal ID122966
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsJones, Anthony C. (Author), Haywood, James M. (Author), Dunstone, Nick (Author), Emanuel, Kerry (Author), Hawcroft, Matthew K. (Author), Hodges, Kevin I. (Author) and Jones, Andy (Author)
Journal TitleNature Communications
Journal Citation8 (1), pp. 1-10
Article Number1382
Number of Pages10
Year2017
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN2041-1723
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Web Address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01606-0
Abstract

Solar geoengineering refers to a range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing sunlight at Earth's surface. The most widely known solar geoengineering proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which has impacts analogous to those from volcanic eruptions. Observations following major volcanic eruptions indicate that aerosol enhancements confined to a single hemisphere effectively modulate North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the following years. Here we investigate the effects of both single-hemisphere and global SAI scenarios on North Atlantic TC activity using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and various TC identification methods. We show that a robust result from all of the methods is that SAI applied to the southern hemisphere would enhance TC frequency relative to a global SAI application, and vice versa for SAI in the northern hemisphere. Our results reemphasise concerns regarding regional geoengineering and should motivate policymakers to regulate large-scale unilateral geoengineering deployments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Keywordsaerosol; engineering geology; frequency analysis; general circulation model; global warming; Northern Hemisphere; solar radiation; Southern Hemisphere; stratosphere; tropical cyclone; volcanic eruption; injection; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370108. Meteorology
370202. Climatology
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Exeter, United Kingdom
Met Office, United Kingdom
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States
University of Reading, United Kingdom
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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