Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

Article


Jones, Anthony C., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Haywood, James M., Jones, Andy, Guo, Xiaoran and Moore, John C.. 2018. "Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering." Earth's Future. 6 (2), pp. 230-251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000720
Article Title

Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

ERA Journal ID200393
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsJones, Anthony C. (Author), Hawcroft, Matthew K. (Author), Haywood, James M. (Author), Jones, Andy (Author), Guo, Xiaoran (Author) and Moore, John C. (Author)
Journal TitleEarth's Future
Journal Citation6 (2), pp. 230-251
Number of Pages22
Year2018
Place of PublicationWashington, United Kingdom
ISSN2328-4277
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000720
Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

KeywordsAmazon; geoengineering; heatwaves; storms; climate effect; climate modeling; emission inventory; global warming; greenhouse gas; heat wave; international agreement; regional climate; sea ice; storm surge; storm track; stratosphere; Amazonas [Brazil]; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Brazil; Europe
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
370108. Meteorology
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Exeter, United Kingdom
Met Office, United Kingdom
Beijing Normal University, China
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q51yw/regional-climate-impacts-of-stabilizing-global-warming-at-1-5-k-using-solar-geoengineering

Download files


Published Version
Jones_et_al-2018-Earth's_Future.pdf
File access level: Anyone

  • 198
    total views
  • 123
    total downloads
  • 0
    views this month
  • 4
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles
Liang, Ju, Tan, Mou Leong, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew K, Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2023. "Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles." Climate Dynamics. 60 (3-4), pp. 1151-1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06363-5
Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Tan, Mou Leong, Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2023. "Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate." Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00326-1
Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution
Liang, Ju, Tan, Mou Leong, Hawcroft, Matthew, Catto, Jennifer L., Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2022. "Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution." Climate Dynamics. 58 (9-10), pp. 2783-2805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06033-y
The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019
Hawcroft, Matt, Lavender, Sally, Copsey, Dan, Milton, Sean, Rodriguez, Jose, Tennant, Warren, Webster, Stuart and Cowan, Tim. 2021. "The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019." Monthly Weather Review. 149, pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1
Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew, Hodges, Kevin I., Tan, Mou Leong and Haywood, James M.. 2021. "Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate. 34 (9), pp. 3401-3419. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0604.1
Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing
Kang, Sarah M., Xie, Shang-Ping, Shin, Yechul, Kim, Hanjun, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Stuecker, Malte F., Xiang, Baoqiang and Hawcroft, Matt. 2020. "Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing." Science Advances. 6 (47). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd3021
Nitrogen-Doped Mesoporous Carbon Microspheres by Spray Drying-Vapor Deposition for High-Performance Supercapacitor
Guo, Xiaoran, Kong, Yueqi, Liu, Yang Liu, Zhou, Liang, Nanjundan, Ashok Kumar, Huang, Xiaodan and Yu, Chengzhong. 2020. "Nitrogen-Doped Mesoporous Carbon Microspheres by Spray Drying-Vapor Deposition for High-Performance Supercapacitor." Frontiers in Chemistry. 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fchem.2020.592904
ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results
Kang, Sarah M., Hawcroft, Matt, Xiang, Baoqiang, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Cazes, Gabriel, Codron, Francis, Crueger, Traute, Deser, Clara, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Kim, Hanjun, Kim, Jiyeong, Kosaka, Yu, Losada, Teresa, Mechoso, Carlos R., Myhre, Gunnar, Seland, Oyvind, Stevens, Bjorn, Watanabe, Masahiro and Yu, Sungduk. 2019. "ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (12), pp. 2589-2606. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0301.1
Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?
Johnson, B. T., Haywood, J. M. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?" Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 124 (14), pp. 7930-7950. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030568
Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model
Hawcroft, M., Haywood, J. M., Collins, M., Jones, A., Jones, A. C. and Stephens, G.. 2017. "Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7-8), pp. 2279-2295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5
Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model
Hawcroft, Matt, Dacre, Helen, Forbes, Richard, Hodges, Kevin, Shaffrey, Len and Stein, Thorwald. 2017. "Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7), pp. 2255-2278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6
The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances
Stephens, Graeme L., Hakuba, Maria Z., Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Behrangi, Ali, Kay, Jennifer E. and Webster, Peter J.. 2016. "The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances." Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4), pp. 135-147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0043-9
The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model
Haywood, Jim M., Jones, Andy, Dunstone, Nick, Milton, Sean, Vellinga, Michael, Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro, Hawcroft, Matt, Kravitz, Ben, Cole, Jason, Watanabe, Shingo and Stephens, Graeme. 2016. "The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model." Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (1), pp. 395-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903
Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models
Zappa, Gieuseppe, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len, Black, Emily and Brayshaw, David J.. 2015. "Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models." Climate Dynamics. 45 (7), pp. 1727-1738. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?
Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len C., Hodges, Kevin I. and Dacre, Helen F.. 2016. "Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?" Climate Dynamics. 47 (3), pp. 679-695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Hawcroft, Matt, Walsh, Ella, Hodges, Kevin and Zappa, Giuseppe. 2018. "Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones." Environmental Research Letters. 13 (12), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations
Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Collins, Mat and Jones, Andy. 2018. "The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations." Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3231-3249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4076-8
Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'
Booth, Ben B. B., Harris, Glen R., Jones, Andy, Wilcox, Laura, Hawcroft, Matt and Carslaw, Ken S.. 2018. "Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'." Journal of Climate. 31 (22), pp. 9407-9412. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0369.1