Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles

Article


Liang, Ju, Tan, Mou Leong, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew K, Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2023. "Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles." Climate Dynamics. 60 (3-4), pp. 1151-1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06363-5
Article Title

Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles

ERA Journal ID1962
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsLiang, Ju, Tan, Mou Leong, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew K, Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.
Journal TitleClimate Dynamics
Journal Citation60 (3-4), pp. 1151-1171
Number of Pages21
Year2023
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN0930-7575
1432-0894
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06363-5
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06363-5
AbstractChanges in the monsoon season rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia by the mid-21st century are examined using multi-model ensemble data from the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments. We examine simulations of the present and future climate simulations run under a high emission scenario of greenhouse gases from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolutions on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall and associated environmental fields are investigated by comparing the ensemble mean of the projected changes utilizing appropriate multi-model groupings. The results indicate a projected decrease (by up to 11% near Mersing of eastern Johor, for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1981–2000) in monsoon precipitation along the southeastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia during the northeast monsoon season associated with the projected weakening of the monsoon flow during boreal winter. For the northwestern regions (e.g. Perak) often affected by severe floods, a significant increase in precipitation (by up to 33%) is projected during the southwest monsoon season, partly driven by the projected strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow and the weakened low-level anti-cyclonic shear of winds in boreal summer. However, the magnitudes and signal-to-noise ratios of the projected changes vary considerably with respect to different horizontal and vertical resolutions. Firstly, models with relatively high horizontal and vertical resolutions project a more significant decrease in precipitation during the northeast monsoon season. Secondly, for the southwest monsoon season, models with relatively high horizontal resolutions project larger magnitudes of increases in precipitation over the northern region, while smaller increases are found in simulations with relatively high vertical resolutions. Generally, reduced ensemble spread and increased signal-to-noise ratios are found in simulations at higher horizontal and vertical resolutions, suggesting increased confidence in model projections with increased model resolution. © 2022, The Author(s).
KeywordsHighResMIP; Precipitation; Peninsular Malaysia; Model resolution
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Exeter, United Kingdom
University of Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
Met Office, United Kingdom
University of Southern Queensland
University of Reading, United Kingdom
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z2633/projected-near-term-changes-in-monsoon-precipitation-over-peninsular-malaysia-in-the-highresmip-multi-model-ensembles

Download files


Published Version
s00382-022-06363-5.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 19
    total views
  • 16
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 2
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Long-term trends in atmospheric rivers over East Asia
Liang, Ju, Yong, Yangyang and Hawcroft, Matthew K.. 2023. "Long-term trends in atmospheric rivers over East Asia." Climate Dynamics. 60 (3-4), pp. 643-666. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06339-5
Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Tan, Mou Leong, Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2023. "Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate." Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00326-1
Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution
Liang, Ju, Tan, Mou Leong, Hawcroft, Matthew, Catto, Jennifer L., Hodges, Kevin I. and Haywood, James M.. 2022. "Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution." Climate Dynamics. 58 (9-10), pp. 2783-2805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06033-y
Cyanobacteria blue-green algae prediction enhancement using hybrid machine learning–based gamma test variable selection and empirical wavelet transform
Heddam, Salim, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Falah, Mayadah W., Goliatt, Leonardo, Tan, Mou Leong, Sa’adi, Zulfaqar, Ahmadianfar, Iman, Saggi, Mandeep, Bhatia, Amandeep and Samui, Pijush. 2022. "Cyanobacteria blue-green algae prediction enhancement using hybrid machine learning–based gamma test variable selection and empirical wavelet transform." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 29 (51), pp. 77157-77187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21201-1
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew, Hodges, Kevin I., Tan, Mou Leong and Haywood, James M.. 2021. "Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate. 34 (9), pp. 3401-3419. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0604.1
Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?
Johnson, B. T., Haywood, J. M. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?" Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 124 (14), pp. 7930-7950. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030568
Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model
Hawcroft, M., Haywood, J. M., Collins, M., Jones, A., Jones, A. C. and Stephens, G.. 2017. "Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7-8), pp. 2279-2295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5
Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model
Hawcroft, Matt, Dacre, Helen, Forbes, Richard, Hodges, Kevin, Shaffrey, Len and Stein, Thorwald. 2017. "Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7), pp. 2255-2278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6
The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances
Stephens, Graeme L., Hakuba, Maria Z., Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Behrangi, Ali, Kay, Jennifer E. and Webster, Peter J.. 2016. "The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances." Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4), pp. 135-147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0043-9
The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model
Haywood, Jim M., Jones, Andy, Dunstone, Nick, Milton, Sean, Vellinga, Michael, Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro, Hawcroft, Matt, Kravitz, Ben, Cole, Jason, Watanabe, Shingo and Stephens, Graeme. 2016. "The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model." Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (1), pp. 395-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903
Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?
Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len C., Hodges, Kevin I. and Dacre, Helen F.. 2016. "Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?" Climate Dynamics. 47 (3), pp. 679-695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z
Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering
Jones, Anthony C., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Haywood, James M., Jones, Andy, Guo, Xiaoran and Moore, John C.. 2018. "Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering." Earth's Future. 6 (2), pp. 230-251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000720
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Hawcroft, Matt, Walsh, Ella, Hodges, Kevin and Zappa, Giuseppe. 2018. "Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones." Environmental Research Letters. 13 (12), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations
Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Collins, Mat and Jones, Andy. 2018. "The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations." Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3231-3249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4076-8