Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia
Article
Article Title | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
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Article Category | Article |
Authors | Tan, Mou Leong, Liang, Ju, Hawcroft, Matthew, Haywood, James M., Zhang, Fei, Rainis, Ruslan and Ismail, Wan Ruslan |
Journal Title | Water |
Journal Citation | 13 (22) |
Article Number | 3158 |
Number of Pages | 17 |
Year | 2021 |
Publisher | MDPI AG |
Place of Publication | Switzerland |
ISSN | 2073-4441 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223158 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3158 |
Abstract | High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (High-ResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1◦), medium (0.5◦ to 1◦) and high (≤0.5◦) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9◦ C and 0.9 to 1.1◦ C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium-and low-resolution models. |
Keywords | Climate change; CMIP6; HighResMIP; SWAT; water resource; resolution; Malaysia; Johor |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370202. Climatology |
Byline Affiliations | University of Science, Malaysia |
University of Exeter, United Kingdom | |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
Met Office, United Kingdom | |
Xinjiang University, China |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/zq54v/resolution-dependence-of-regional-hydro-climatic-projection-a-case-study-for-the-johor-river-basin-malaysia
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