Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

Article

Zappa, Gieuseppe, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len, Black, Emily and Brayshaw, David J.. 2015. "Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models." Climate Dynamics. 45 (7), pp. 1727-1738. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
Article Title

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

ERA Journal ID1962
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsZappa, Gieuseppe (Author), Hawcroft, Matthew K. (Author), Shaffrey, Len (Author), Black, Emily (Author) and Brayshaw, David J. (Author)
Journal TitleClimate Dynamics
Journal Citation45 (7), pp. 1727-1738
Number of Pages12
Year2015
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN0930-7575
1432-0894
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2426-8
Abstract

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change “hot-spot” due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.

KeywordsCMIP5, extratropical cycoles, Mediterranean climate, precipitation projections
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020419999. Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified
Public Notes

Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions.

Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Reading, United Kingdom
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q51yz/extratropical-cyclones-and-the-projected-decline-of-winter-mediterranean-precipitation-in-the-cmip5-models

Log in to edit
  • 151
    total views
  • 10
    total downloads
  • 0
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe
Domeisen, Daniela I. V., White, Christopher J., Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla, Munoz, Angel G., Janiga, Matthew A., Vitart, Frederic, Wulff, C. Ole, Antoine, Salome, Ardilouze, Constantin, Batte, Lauriane, Bloomfield, Hannah C., Brayshaw, David J., Camargo, Suzana J., Charlton-Perez, Andrew, Collins, Dan, Cowan, Tim, del Mar Chaves, Maria, Ferranti, Laura, Gomez, Rosario, ..., Tian, Di. 2022. "Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019
Hawcroft, Matt, Lavender, Sally, Copsey, Dan, Milton, Sean, Rodriguez, Jose, Tennant, Warren, Webster, Stuart and Cowan, Tim. 2021. "The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019." Monthly Weather Review. 149, pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1
Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model
Liang, Ju, Catto, Jennifer L., Hawcroft, Matthew, Hodges, Kevin I., Tan, Mou Leong and Haywood, James M.. 2021. "Climatology of Borneo vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate. 34 (9), pp. 3401-3419. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0604.1
Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing
Kang, Sarah M., Xie, Shang-Ping, Shin, Yechul, Kim, Hanjun, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Stuecker, Malte F., Xiang, Baoqiang and Hawcroft, Matt. 2020. "Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing." Science Advances. 6 (47). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd3021
ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results
Kang, Sarah M., Hawcroft, Matt, Xiang, Baoqiang, Hwang, Yen-Ting, Cazes, Gabriel, Codron, Francis, Crueger, Traute, Deser, Clara, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Kim, Hanjun, Kim, Jiyeong, Kosaka, Yu, Losada, Teresa, Mechoso, Carlos R., Myhre, Gunnar, Seland, Oyvind, Stevens, Bjorn, Watanabe, Masahiro and Yu, Sungduk. 2019. "ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and initial results." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (12), pp. 2589-2606. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0301.1
Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?
Johnson, B. T., Haywood, J. M. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Are changes in atmospheric circulation important for black carbon aerosol impacts on clouds, precipitation, and radiation?" Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 124 (14), pp. 7930-7950. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030568
Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model
Hawcroft, M., Haywood, J. M., Collins, M., Jones, A., Jones, A. C. and Stephens, G.. 2017. "Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7-8), pp. 2279-2295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5
Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model
Hawcroft, Matt, Dacre, Helen, Forbes, Richard, Hodges, Kevin, Shaffrey, Len and Stein, Thorwald. 2017. "Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model." Climate Dynamics. 48 (7), pp. 2255-2278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6
The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances
Stephens, Graeme L., Hakuba, Maria Z., Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Behrangi, Ali, Kay, Jennifer E. and Webster, Peter J.. 2016. "The curious nature of the hemispheric symmetry of the Earth’s water and energy balances." Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4), pp. 135-147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0043-9
The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model
Haywood, Jim M., Jones, Andy, Dunstone, Nick, Milton, Sean, Vellinga, Michael, Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro, Hawcroft, Matt, Kravitz, Ben, Cole, Jason, Watanabe, Shingo and Stephens, Graeme. 2016. "The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model." Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (1), pp. 395-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903
Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?
Hawcroft, Matthew K., Shaffrey, Len C., Hodges, Kevin I. and Dacre, Helen F.. 2016. "Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?" Climate Dynamics. 47 (3), pp. 679-695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z
Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering
Jones, Anthony C., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Haywood, James M., Jones, Andy, Guo, Xiaoran and Moore, John C.. 2018. "Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering." Earth's Future. 6 (2), pp. 230-251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000720
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Hawcroft, Matt, Walsh, Ella, Hodges, Kevin and Zappa, Giuseppe. 2018. "Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones." Environmental Research Letters. 13 (12), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations
Hawcroft, Matt, Haywood, Jim M., Collins, Mat and Jones, Andy. 2018. "The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations." Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3231-3249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4076-8
Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'
Booth, Ben B. B., Harris, Glen R., Jones, Andy, Wilcox, Laura, Hawcroft, Matt and Carslaw, Ken S.. 2018. "Comments on 'Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing'." Journal of Climate. 31 (22), pp. 9407-9412. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0369.1