Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe
Article
Article Title | Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe |
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ERA Journal ID | 1961 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Domeisen, Daniela I. V. (Author), White, Christopher J. (Author), Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla (Author), Munoz, Angel G. (Author), Janiga, Matthew A. (Author), Vitart, Frederic (Author), Wulff, C. Ole (Author), Antoine, Salome (Author), Ardilouze, Constantin (Author), Batte, Lauriane (Author), Bloomfield, Hannah C. (Author), Brayshaw, David J. (Author), Camargo, Suzana J. (Author), Charlton-Perez, Andrew (Author), Collins, Dan (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author), del Mar Chaves, Maria (Author), Ferranti, Laura (Author), Gomez, Rosario (Author), Gonzalez, Paula L. M. (Author), Gonzalez Romero, Carmen (Author), Infanti, Johnna M. (Author), Karozis, Stelios (Author), Kim, Hera (Author), Kolstad, Erik W. (Author), LaJoie, Emerson (Author), Lledo, Llorenc (Author), Magnusson, Linus (Author), Malguzzi, Piero (Author), Manrique-Sunen, Andrea (Author), Mastrangelo, Daniele (Author), Materia, Stefano (Author), Medina, Hanoi (Author), Palma, Lluis (Author), Pineda, Luis E. (Author), Sfetsos, Athanasios (Author), Son, Seok-Woo (Author), Soret, Albert (Author), Strazzo, Sarah (Author) and Tian, Di (Author) |
Journal Title | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
Journal Citation | 103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501 |
Number of Pages | 29 |
Year | 2022 |
Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
Place of Publication | United States |
ISSN | 0003-0007 |
1520-0477 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1 |
Web Address (URL) | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/6/BAMS-D-20-0221.1.xml |
Abstract | Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for proba-bilistic subseasonal prediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on time scales of 3–4 weeks, while this time scale is 2–3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events. |
Keywords | Madden-Julian oscillation; Severe storms; Ensembles; Forecast verification/skill; Probability; Forecasts/models/distribution; Flood event |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370101. Adverse weather events |
370201. Climate change processes | |
370903. Natural hazards | |
370105. Atmospheric dynamics | |
370108. Meteorology | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | University of Lausanne, Switzerland |
University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom | |
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland | |
Columbia University, United States | |
Naval Research Laboratory, United States | |
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom | |
University of Toulouse, France | |
University of Reading, United Kingdom | |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States | |
University of Southern Queensland | |
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy | |
International Regional Organization for Plant and Animal Health, El Salvador | |
National Centre for Scientific Research, Greece | |
Seoul National University, Korea | |
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway | |
Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain | |
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy | |
Auburn University, United States | |
Yachay Tech University, Ecuador | |
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, United States | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q773y/advances-in-the-subseasonal-prediction-of-extreme-events-relevant-case-studies-across-the-globe
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