Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer

Article


Schurer, Andrew P., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Luterbacher, Jurg, Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Tett, Simon F. B., Zanchettin, Davide and Timmreck, Claudia. 2019. "Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (094019), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
Article Title

Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer

ERA Journal ID36365
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSchurer, Andrew P. (Author), Hegerl, Gabriele C. (Author), Luterbacher, Jurg (Author), Bronnimann, Stefan (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author), Tett, Simon F. B. (Author), Zanchettin, Davide (Author) and Timmreck, Claudia (Author)
Journal TitleEnvironmental Research Letters
Journal Citation14 (094019), pp. 1-10
Number of Pages10
Year2019
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN1748-9326
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
Web Address (URL)https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
Abstract

The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level- pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations,we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5–3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability.

Keywordsclimate event attribution, climate response to volcanic eruptions, European summer climate, the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
370108. Meteorology
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
370904. Palaeoclimatology
370202. Climatology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Justus Liebig-University Giessen, Germany
University of Bern, Switzerland
University of Southern Queensland
University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Italy
Max Planck Society, Germany
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