Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
Article
Article Title | Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer |
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ERA Journal ID | 36365 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Schurer, Andrew P. (Author), Hegerl, Gabriele C. (Author), Luterbacher, Jurg (Author), Bronnimann, Stefan (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author), Tett, Simon F. B. (Author), Zanchettin, Davide (Author) and Timmreck, Claudia (Author) |
Journal Title | Environmental Research Letters |
Journal Citation | 14 (094019), pp. 1-10 |
Number of Pages | 10 |
Year | 2019 |
Publisher | IOP Publishing |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10 |
Web Address (URL) | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10 |
Abstract | The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level- pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations,we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5–3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability. |
Keywords | climate event attribution, climate response to volcanic eruptions, European summer climate, the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
370108. Meteorology | |
370105. Atmospheric dynamics | |
370904. Palaeoclimatology | |
370202. Climatology | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
Byline Affiliations | University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom |
Justus Liebig-University Giessen, Germany | |
University of Bern, Switzerland | |
University of Southern Queensland | |
University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Italy | |
Max Planck Society, Germany |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5682/disentangling-the-causes-of-the-1816-european-year-without-a-summer
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Schurer_2019_Environ._Res._Lett.Tambora_impact.pdf | ||
License: CC BY 3.0 | ||
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