Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

Article

Slivinski, Laura C., Compo, Gilbert P., Whitaker, Jeffrey S., Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Giese, Benjamin S., McColl, Chesley, Allan, Rob, Yin, Xungang, Vose, Russell, Titchner, Holly, Kennedy, John, Spencer, Lawrence J., Ashcroft, Linden, Bronnimann, Stefan, Brunet, Manola, Camuffo, Dario, Cornes, Richard, Cram, Thomas A., Crouthamel, Richard, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145 (724), pp. 2876-2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Article Title

Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

ERA Journal ID1987
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSlivinski, Laura C. (Author), Compo, Gilbert P. (Author), Whitaker, Jeffrey S. (Author), Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. (Author), Giese, Benjamin S. (Author), McColl, Chesley (Author), Allan, Rob (Author), Yin, Xungang (Author), Vose, Russell (Author), Titchner, Holly (Author), Kennedy, John (Author), Spencer, Lawrence J. (Author), Ashcroft, Linden (Author), Bronnimann, Stefan (Author), Brunet, Manola (Author), Camuffo, Dario (Author), Cornes, Richard (Author), Cram, Thomas A. (Author), Crouthamel, Richard (Author), Dominguez‐Castro, Fernando (Author), Freeman, J. Eric (Author), Gergis, Joelle (Author), Hawkins, Ed (Author), Jones, Philip D. (Author), Jourdain, Sylvie (Author), Kaplan, Alexey (Author), Kubota, Hisayuki (Author), Le Blancq, Frank (Author), Lee, Tsz‐Cheung (Author), Lorrey, Andrew (Author), Luterbacher, Jurg (Author), Maugeri, Maurizio (Author), Mock, Cary J. (Author), Moore, G. W. Kent (Author), Przybylak, Rajmund (Author), Pudmenzky, Christa (Author), Reason, Chris (Author), Slonosky, Victoria C. (Author), Smith, Catherine A. (Author), Tinz, Birger (Author), Trewin, Blair (Author), Valente, Maria Antonia (Author), Wang, Xiaolan L. (Author), Wilkinson, Clive (Author), Wood, Kevin (Author) and Wyszynski, Przemysław (Author)
Journal TitleQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Journal Citation145 (724), pp. 2876-2908
Number of Pages33
Year2019
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0035-9009
1477-870X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Abstract

Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields.

Keywordsdata assimilation, reanalysis, surface pressure, 20CRv3
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370199. Atmospheric sciences not elsewhere classified
370108. Meteorology
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Colorado Boulder, United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
Texas A&M University, United States
Met Office, United Kingdom
Riverside Technology, United States
National Centers for Environmental Information, United States
University of Melbourne
University of Bern, Switzerland
University of Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy
National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom
National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States
International Environmental Data Rescue Organization, United States
Pyrenean Ecology Institute, Spain
Australian National University
University of Reading, United Kingdom
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
Meteo France, France
Columbia University, United States
Hokkaido University, Japan
Island of Jersey Meteorological Department, United Kingdom
Hong Kong Observatory, China
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
Justus Liebig-University Giessen, Germany
University of Milan, Italy
University of South Carolina, United States
University of Toronto, Canada
Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Cape Town, South Africa
McGill University, Canada
German Meteorological Service
University of Lisbon, Portugal
Environment and Climate Change, Canada
University of Washington, United States
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands
Bullard, Joanna E., McTainsh, Grant H. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2007. "Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands." Sedimentology. 54 (1), pp. 169-182. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2006.00827.x
A climate reconstruction of Sydney Cove, New South Wales, using weather journal and documentary data, 1788–1791
Gergis, Joelle, Karoly, David J. and Allan, Robert J.. 2009. "A climate reconstruction of Sydney Cove, New South Wales, using weather journal and documentary data, 1788–1791." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 53 (2), pp. 83-98.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?
Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Butler, H. and Allan, R.. 2011. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?" American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. San Francisco, California, United States 05 - 09 Dec 2011 United States.
A FLAC model for classical earth pressure problems
Shiau, Jim S., Thomas, Caroline J. and Smith, Catherine A.. 2008. "A FLAC model for classical earth pressure problems." Detournay, Christine, Hart, Roger and Cundall, Peter (ed.) 1st International FLAC/DEM Symposium on Numerical Modeling. Minneapolis, United States of America 25 - 27 Aug 2008 Minneapolis. USA..
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Bearing capacity of footings near slopes
Smith, Catherine and Shiau, Jim S.. 2007. "Bearing capacity of footings near slopes." Ameratunga, Jay, Taylor, Brett C. and Patten, Matthew (ed.) 10th Australia New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics. Brisbane, Australia 21 - 24 Oct 2007 Brisbane, Australia.
Numerical analysis of passive earth pressures with interfaces
Shiau, Jim and Smith, Catherine. 2006. "Numerical analysis of passive earth pressures with interfaces." Soares, Carlos Mota (ed.) 3rd European Conference on Computational Mechanics (ECCM 2006). Lisbon, Portugal 05 - 08 Jun 2006 Netherlands.
Development of a QEMSCAN® coal analysis capability
van Zyl, J. and Pudmenzky, C.. 2008. "Development of a QEMSCAN® coal analysis capability." Automated Mineralogy 08. Brisbane, Australia 27 - 28 Aug 2008 Australia.