Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought

Article


Nguyen, Hanh, Otkin, Jason A., Wheeler, Matthew C., Hope, Pandora, Trewin, Blair and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2020. "Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 21 (10), pp. 2309-2324. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0042.1
Article Title

Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought

ERA Journal ID35134
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsNguyen, Hanh (Author), Otkin, Jason A. (Author), Wheeler, Matthew C. (Author), Hope, Pandora (Author), Trewin, Blair (Author) and Pudmenzky, Christa (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Hydrometeorology
Journal Citation21 (10), pp. 2309-2324
Number of Pages16
Year2020
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1525-7541
1525-755X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0042.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/10/jhmD200042.xml
Abstract

The seasonal cycle of the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) over Australia, and its relationship to observed rainfall and temperature, is examined. The ESI is defined as the standardized anomaly of the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration, and as such, is a measure of vegetation moisture stress associated with agricultural or ecological drought. The ESI is computed using the daily output of version 6 of the Bureau of Meteorology's landscape water balance model (AWRA-L v6) on a 5 km horizontal grid over a 45-year period (1975-2019). Here we show that the ESI exhibits marked spatial and seasonal variability and can be used to accurately monitor drought across Australia. Values less than negative one indicate drought. While the ESI is highly correlated with rainfall as expected, its relationship with temperature only becomes significant during the warmer seasons, suggesting a threshold above which temperature may affect vegetation stress. Our analysis also shows that the ESI tends to be strongly negative (i.e. indicating drought) during El Niño and positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), when conditions tend to be anomalously hot and dry. A negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode also tends to drive negative ESI values during austral spring with a one-month delay.

KeywordsEvaporative Stress Index (ESI); Australia; rainfall; temperature; drought
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370108. Meteorology
300206. Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling
370202. Climatology
300202. Agricultural land management
Byline AffiliationsAustralian Bureau of Meteorology
University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5x8y/climatology-and-variability-of-the-evaporative-stress-index-and-its-suitability-as-a-tool-to-monitor-australian-drought

  • 165
    total views
  • 12
    total downloads
  • 2
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Australian Drought Monitoring Experiences
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2023. "Australian Drought Monitoring Experiences." SC-AGR ET-Drought Workshop on Global Drought Classification System (GDCS). Ljubljana, Slovenia 13 - 15 Jun 2023 Slovenia .
A drought monitor for Australia
Guillory, Laura, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Cobon, David and Stone, Roger. 2023. "A drought monitor for Australia." Environmental Modelling and Software. 170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105852
Multiepoch Detections of the Extended Atmosphere and Transmission Spectra of KELT-9b with a 1.5 m Telescope
Lowson, Nataliea, Zhou, George, Wright, Duncan J., Huang, Chelsea X., Mendonça, João M., Cabot, Samuel H. C., Pudmenzky, Christa, Wittenmyer, Robert A., Latham, David W., Bieryla, Allyson, Esquerdo, Gilbert A., Berlind, Perry and Calkins, Michael L.. 2023. "Multiepoch Detections of the Extended Atmosphere and Transmission Spectra of KELT-9b with a 1.5 m Telescope." The Astronomical Journal. 165 (3), pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/acacf3
Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts
Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Mattew C., Otkin, Jason A., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cowan, Timothy. 2023. "Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 24 (6), p. 1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0033.1
An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Bronnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., ..., Wyszynski, P.. 2021. "An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3." Journal of Climate. 34 (4), pp. 1417-1438. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1
Formalizing Trust in Historical Weather Data
Sieber, Renee, Slonosky, Victoria, Ashcroft, Linden and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2022. "Formalizing Trust in Historical Weather Data." Weather, Climate and Society. 14 (3), pp. 993-1007. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0077.1
Wet season rainfall onset and flash drought: The case of the northern Australian wet season
Lisonbee, Joel, Ribbe, Joachim, Otkin, Jason A. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2022. "Wet season rainfall onset and flash drought: The case of the northern Australian wet season." International Journal of Climatology. 42 (12), pp. 6499-6514. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7609
Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2022. "Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall
Heidemann, Hanna, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Cobon, David H.. 2022. "The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 35 (1), pp. 425-444. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0264.1
Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions
Cowan, Tim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew C. and Griffiths, Morwenna. 2020. "Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions." Climate Services. 19, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100182
Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, Christa, Guillory, Laura, Cobon, David H. and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2020. Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor. Toowoomba, Queensland. University of Southern Queensland.
Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Hudson, Debra, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Griffiths, Morwenna and Young, Griffith. 2022. Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia. Australia. Bureau of Meteorology.
Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program
Cobon, David, Jarvis, Chelsea, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Guillory, Laura, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2021. "Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program." The Rangeland Journal. 43 (3), pp. 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20074
Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service
Hope, Pandora, Zhao, Mei, Abhik, S., Tolhurst, Gen, McKay, Roseanna C., Rauniyar, Surendra P., Bettio, Lynette, Ramchurn, Avijeet, Lim, Eun-Pa, Pepler, Acacia S, Cowan, Tim and Watkins, Andrew B.. 2022. "Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (3), pp. S7-S13. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0253.1
SERCOM Focal Point on Gender Equality
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2022. "SERCOM Focal Point on Gender Equality ." 4th Meeting of the Standing Committee on Services for Agriculture (SC-AGR-4). Geneva, Switzerland 11 - 13 Oct 2022
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Australian Drought Monitor
Cobon, David, Gacenga, Francis, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Stone, Roger, Guillory, Laura, Jackson, J, Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Meat & Livestock Australia. 2022. Australian Drought Monitor. Toowoomba. https://doi.org/10.26192/dmek-v625
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, Sugata and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2021. "Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting. 37 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0046.1
Instrumental Meteorological Records before 1850: An Inventory
Bronnimann, Stefan, Allan, Rob, Ashcroft, Linden, Baer, Saba, Barriendos, Mariano, Brazdil, Rudolf, Brugnara, Yuri, Brunet, Manola, Brunetti, Michele, Chimani, Barbara, Cornes, Richard, Dominguez-Castro, Fernando, Filipiak, Janusz, Founda, Dimitra, Garcia Herrera, Ricardo, Gergis, Joelle, Grab, Stefan, Hannak, Lisa, Huhtamaa, Heli, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2020. "Instrumental Meteorological Records before 1850: An Inventory." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101 (1), pp. 43-47. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.A
Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges
Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Hope, Pandora, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, ..., Delage, Francois. 2019. "Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (3), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
Forewarned is Forearmed: How the new BoM forecasting products may work for you in the Sugar Industry
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2021. "Forewarned is Forearmed: How the new BoM forecasting products may work for you in the Sugar Industry." 42nd Annual Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (ASSCT 2021) . Bundaberg, Australia 21 - 23 Apr 2021 Australia.
The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian monsoon rainfall on decadal time-scales
Heidemann, H., Joachim Ribbe, Cowan, T., Henley, B., Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R. and Cobon, D.. 2021. "The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian monsoon rainfall on decadal time-scales." 23rd EGU General Assembly. 19 - 30 Apr 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10482
Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture
Darbyshire, Rebecca, Crean, Jason, Cashen, Michael, Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin, Broadfoot, Kim, Simpson, Marja, Cobon, David, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Kodur, Shreevatsa. 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture." The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 64 (4), pp. 1034-1058. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12389
Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia
Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Matthew C., Otkin, Jason A., Cowan, Tim, Frost, Andrew and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (6), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103
Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: a global inventory
Bronnimann, Stefan, Allan, Rob, Ashcroft, Linden, Baer, Saba, Barriendos, Mariano, Brazdil, Rudolf, Brugnara, Yuri, Brunet, Manola, Brunetti, Michele, Chimani, Barbara, Cornes, Richard, Dominguez-Castro, Fernando, Filipiak, Janusz, Founda, Dimitra, Garcia Herrera, Ricardo, Gergis, Joelle, Grab, Stefan, Hannak, Lisa, Huhtamaa, Heli, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: a global inventory." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (12), pp. ES389-ES413. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-00
Defining the north Australian monsoon onset: A systematic review
Lisonbee, Joel, Ribbe, Joachim and Wheeler, Matthew. 2020. "Defining the north Australian monsoon onset: A systematic review." Progress in Physical Geography: an international review of geographical work in the natural and environmental sciences. 44 (3), pp. 398-418. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133319881107
Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system
Slivinski, Laura C., Compo, Gilbert P., Whitaker, Jeffrey S., Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Giese, Benjamin S., McColl, Chesley, Allan, Rob, Yin, Xungang, Vose, Russell, Titchner, Holly, Kennedy, John, Spencer, Lawrence J., Ashcroft, Linden, Bronnimann, Stefan, Brunet, Manola, Camuffo, Dario, Cornes, Richard, Cram, Thomas A., Crouthamel, Richard, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145 (724), pp. 2876-2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals
Bundschuh, Jochen, Maity, Jyoti Prakash, Mushtaq, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Vithange, Meththika, Seneweera, Saman, Schneider, Jerusa, Bhattacharya, Prosun, Khan, Nasreen Islam, Hamawand, Ihsan, Guilherme, Luiz R. G., Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Parvez, Faruque, Morales-Simfors, Nury, Ghaze, Sara, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Chen, Chien-Yen. 2017. "Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals." Science of the Total Environment. 581-582, pp. 87-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.208
Climate, vegetation cover and dust storm events in arid and semi-arid regions of Australia - relationships, models and predictions
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2016. Climate, vegetation cover and dust storm events in arid and semi-arid regions of Australia - relationships, models and predictions. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland. https://doi.org/10.26192/5bf5fa61ed34e
Current climate data rescue activities in Australia
Ashcroft, Linden, Allan, Rob, Bridgman, Howard, Gergis, Joelle, Pudmenzky, Christa and Thornton, Ken. 2016. "Current climate data rescue activities in Australia." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 33 (12), pp. 1323-1324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6189-5
Broad scale mapping of vegetation cover across Australia from rainfall and temperature data
Pudmenzky, Christa, King, Rachel and Butler, Harry. 2015. "Broad scale mapping of vegetation cover across Australia from rainfall and temperature data." Journal of Arid Environments. 120, pp. 55-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.04.010
El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger, Butler, Harry and Allan, Robert. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" 4th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2011). De Bilt, The Netherlands 21 - 23 Sep 2011
In Queensland, what legislative changes or modifications need to be implemented in relation to light pollution problems for nesting sea turtles and hatchlings?
Pudmenzky, Christa. 2013. In Queensland, what legislative changes or modifications need to be implemented in relation to light pollution problems for nesting sea turtles and hatchlings? Christa Pudmenzky.
Aeolian abrasion and modes of fine particle production from natural red dune sands: an experimental study
Bullard, Joanna E., McTainsh, Grant H. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2004. "Aeolian abrasion and modes of fine particle production from natural red dune sands: an experimental study." Sedimentology. 51 (5), pp. 1103-1125. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2004.00662.x
Climate variability analysis for Diuron application
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Marcussen, Torben, Pudmenzky, Christa and Maraseni, Tek. 2012. Climate variability analysis for Diuron application. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Butler, Harry. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" WCRP 2011: Climate Research in Service to Society. Denver, United States 24 - 28 Oct 2011 Geneva, Switzerland.
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands
Bullard, Joanna E., McTainsh, Grant H. and Pudmenzky, Christa. 2007. "Factors affecting the nature and rate of dust production from natural dune sands." Sedimentology. 54 (1), pp. 169-182. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2006.00827.x
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.