An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

Article


Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Bronnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., ..., Wyszynski, P.. 2021. "An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3." Journal of Climate. 34 (4), pp. 1417-1438. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1
Article Title

An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

ERA Journal ID1978
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSlivinski, L. C. (Author), Compo, G. P. (Author), Sardeshmukh, P. D. (Author), Whitaker, J. S. (Author), McColl, C. (Author), Allan, R. (Author), Brohan, P. (Author), Yin, X. (Author), Smith, C. A. (Author), Spencer, L. J. (Author), Vose, R. S. (Author), Rohrer, M. (Author), Conroy, R. P. (Author), Schuster, D. C. (Author), Kennedy, J. J. (Author), Ashcroft, L. (Author), Bronnimann, S. (Author), Brunet, M. (Author), Camuffo, D. (Author), Cornes, R. (Author), Cram, T. (Author), Dominguez-Castro, F. (Author), Freeman, J. E. (Author), Gergis, J. (Author), Hawkins, E. (Author), Jones, P. D. (Author), Kubota, H. (Author), Lee, T. C. (Author), Lorrey, A. M. (Author), Luterbacher, J. (Author), Mock, C. J. (Author), Przybylak, R. K. (Author), Pudmenzky, C. (Author), Slonosky, V. C. (Author), Tinz, B. (Author), Trewin, B. (Author), Wang, X. L. (Author), Wilkinson, C. (Author), Wood, K. (Author) and Wyszynski, P. (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Climate
Journal Citation34 (4), pp. 1417-1438
Number of Pages22
Year2021
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0894-8755
1520-0442
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-20-0505.1/JCLI-D-20-0505.1.xml
Abstract

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.

KeywordsSynoptic-scale processes; Surface pressure; Surface observations; Data assimilation; Reanalysis data;Decadal variability
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
370108. Meteorology
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Colorado Boulder, United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
Met Office, United Kingdom
Riverside Technology, United States
National Centers for Environmental Information, United States
University of Bern, Switzerland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States
University of Melbourne
University of Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy
National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom
University of Zaragoza, Spain
Australian National University
University of Reading, United Kingdom
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
Hokkaido University, Japan
Hong Kong Observatory, China
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
University of South Carolina, United States
Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
McGill University, Canada
German Meteorological Service
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Environment and Climate Change, Canada
University of Washington, United States
Open access urlhttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-20-0505.1/JCLI-D-20-0505.1.xml
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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