Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

Article

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., ..., Yeager, S.. 2018. "Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C." Geophysical Research Letters. 45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
Article Title

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSmith, D. M. (Author), Scaife, A. A. (Author), Hawkins, E. (Author), Bilbao, R. (Author), Boer, G. J. (Author), Caian, M. (Author), Caron, L.-P. (Author), Danabasoglu, G. (Author), Delworth, T. (Author), Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (Author), Doescher, R. (Author), Dunstone, N. J. (Author), Eade, R. (Author), Hermanson, L. (Author), Ishii, M. (Author), Kharin, V. (Author), Kimoto, M. (Author), Koenigk, T. (Author), Kushnir, Y. (Author), Matei, D. (Author), Meehl, G. A. (Author), Menegoz, M. (Author), Merryfield, W. J. (Author), Mochizuki, T. (Author), Muller, W. A. (Author), Pohlmann, H. (Author), Power, S. (Author), Rixen, M. (Author), Sospedra-Alfonso, R. (Author), Tuma, M. (Author), Wyser, K. (Author), Yang, X. (Author) and Yeager, S. (Author)
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903
Number of Pages9
Year2018
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationWashington, United States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079362
Abstract

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.

Keywordsglobal and regional planning; climate change; advanced warnings; anthropogenic global warming; anthropogenic warming; global temperatures; internal variability; policy makers; pre-industrial levels
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Byline AffiliationsMet Office, United Kingdom
University of Reading, United Kingdom
Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden
National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States
Princeton University, United States
Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
Environment and Climate Change, Canada
University of Tokyo, Japan
Columbia University, United States
Max Planck Society, Germany
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
World Climate Research Program, Switzerland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q66x3/predicted-chance-that-global-warming-will-temporarily-exceed-1-5-c

Log in to edit

Download files

Published Version
Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will TemporarilyExceed 1.5 °C.pdf
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 100
    total views
  • 49
    total downloads
  • 0
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
Dunstone, Nick J., Smith, Doug M., Atkinson, Chris, Colman, Andrew, Folland, Chris, Hermanson, Leon, Ineson, Sarah, Killick, Rachel, Morice, Colin, Rayner, Nick, Seabrook, Melissa and Scaife, Adam A.. 2024. "Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?" Atmospheric Science Letters. 25 (9). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254
Corrigendum to “Impacts of environmental feedbacks on the production of a Central Queensland beef enterprise in a future climate” [Agricultural Systems 214 (2024) 1–13/103838]
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Cobon, David, Owens, Jo, Liedloff, Adam, Cowan, Tim and Power, Scott. 2024. "Corrigendum to “Impacts of environmental feedbacks on the production of a Central Queensland beef enterprise in a future climate” [Agricultural Systems 214 (2024) 1–13/103838] ." Agricultural Systems. 216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103875
Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Heidemann, Hanna, Cowan, Tim, Power, Scott B. and Henley, Benjamin J.. 2024. "Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation." Climate Dynamics. 62 (3), pp. 2499-2515. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07035-8
Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change
Devkota, Anjana, Falster, Georgina M., Gillett, Zoe E., Hobeichi, Sanaa, Holgate, Chiara M., Jin, Chenhui, Mu, Mengyuan, Parker, Tess, Rifai, Sami W., Rome, Kathleen S., Stojanovic, Milica, Vogel, Elisabeth, Abram, Nerilie J., Abramowitz, Gab, Coats, Sloan, Evans, Jason P., Gallant, Ailie J. E., Pitman, Andy J., Power, Scott B., ..., Ukkola, Anna M.. 2024. "Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change." Science Advances. 10 (10). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460
Impacts of environmental feedbacks on the production of a Central Queensland beef enterprise in a future climate
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Cobon, David, Owens, Jo, Liedloff, Adam, Cowan, Tim and Power, Scott. 2024. "Impacts of environmental feedbacks on the production of a Central Queensland beef enterprise in a future climate." Agricultural Systems. 214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103838
Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review
Heidemann, Hanna, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Ribbe, Joachim, Freund, Mandy and Power, Scott. 2023. "Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review ." WIREs Climate Change. 14 (3). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.823
Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia
Rauniyar, Surendra P. and Power, Scott B.. 2023. "Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 176 (7). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03562-9
Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions
O'Kane, Terence J., Scaife, Adam A., Kushnir, Yochanan, Brookshaw, Anca, Buontempo, Carlo, Carlin, David, Connell, Richenda K., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Dunstone, Nick, Forster, Kristian, Graca, Antonio, Hobday, Alistair J., Kitsios, Vassili and Power, Scott. 2023. "Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions." Frontiers in Climate. 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies
Chand, Savin, Power, Scott, Walsh, Kevin, Holbrook, Neil, McInnes, Kathleen, Tory, Kevin and Ramsay, Hamish. 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 176 (2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Bronnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., ..., Wyszynski, P.. 2021. "An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3." Journal of Climate. 34 (4), pp. 1417-1438. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1
Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change
Kath, Jarrod, Craparo, Alessandro, Fong, Youyi, Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Davis, Aaron P., King, Rachel, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, van Asten, Piet J. A., Marcussen, Torben, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger and Power, Scott. 2022. "Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change." Nature Food. 3, pp. 871-880. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8
Climate Services: For Informing Decisions and Managing Risk
Plummer, Neil, Imielska, Agata, Braganza, Karl, Jones, David, Pahalad, Janita, Power, Scott, Schweitzer, Martin, Watkins, Andrew, Walland, David and Wiles, Perry. 2018. "Climate Services: For Informing Decisions and Managing Risk." Jung, Hong-Sang and Wang, Bin (ed.) Bridging Science And Policy Implication For Managing Climate Extremes. Singapore. World Scientific Publishing. pp. 49-64
Detection of climate change and attribution of causes
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L, Barnett, T. P., Anyamba, E., Bloomfield, P., Cook, E. R., Covey, C., Crowley, T. J., Delworth, T., Gates, W. L., Graham, N. E., Gregory, J. M., Hansen, J. E., Hasselman, K., Hegerl, G. C., Johns, T. C., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Karoly, D. J., ..., Zwiers, W.. 1996. "Detection of climate change and attribution of causes." Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (ed.) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 411-439
Observed climate variability and trends
Collins, Dean, Sen Gupta, Alexander, Power, Scott, Braganza, Karl, Brown, Jaclyn, Brown, Josephine, Cai, Wenju, Church, John, Colman, Robert, Dowdy, Andrew, Durack, Paul, Jones, David, Kuchinke, Mareva, Kuleshov, Yuriy, Lorrey, Andrew, Lucas, Chris, McGree, Simon, McInnes, Kathleen, Moise, Auriel, ..., White, Neil. 2011. "Observed climate variability and trends." Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Australia. Australian Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO Publishing. pp. 51-77
Near-term climate change: projections and predictability
Kirtman, Ben, Power, Scott B., Adedoyin, Akintayo John, Boer, George J., Bojariu, Roxana, Camilloni, Ines, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Fiore, Arlene M., Kimoto, Masahide, Meehl, Gerald, Prather, Michael, Sarr, Abdoulaye, Schar, Christoph, Sutton, Rowan, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Vecchi, Gabriel and Wang, Hui-Jun. 2013. "Near-term climate change: projections and predictability." Stocker, Thomas F., Qin, Dahe, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Tignor, Melinda M.B., Allen, Simon K., Boschung, Judith, Nauels, Alexander, Xia, Yu, Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M. (ed.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 953-1028
Sea-ice anomalies in the western Arctic and Greenland-Iceland Sea and their relation to an interdecadal climate cycle
Mysak, Lawrence A. and Power, Scott B.. 1992. "Sea-ice anomalies in the western Arctic and Greenland-Iceland Sea and their relation to an interdecadal climate cycle." Climatological Bulletin. 26 (3), pp. 147-176.
Surface heat flux parameterization and the response of ocean general circulation models to high-latitude freshening
Power, S. B. and Kleeman, R.. 1994. "Surface heat flux parameterization and the response of ocean general circulation models to high-latitude freshening." Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 46 (1), pp. 86-95. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00008.x
Coordination of Europe’s climate-related knowledge base: Networking and collaborating through interactive events, social media and focussed groups
Hewitt, Chris, Bessembinder, Janette, Buonocore, Mauro, Dunbar, Tyrone, Garrett, Natalie, Kotova, Lola, New, Stacey, Newton, Paula, Parfitt, Rebecca, Buontempo, Carlo, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Guglielmo, Francesca, Jacob, Daniela, Kjellstrom, Erik, Krzic, Aleksandra, Martins, Helena, Pietrosanti, Alessia and Terrado, Marta. 2021. "Coordination of Europe’s climate-related knowledge base: Networking and collaborating through interactive events, social media and focussed groups." Climate Services. 24, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100264
Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise
Kleeman, Richard and Power, Scott B.. 1994. "Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise." Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 46 (4), pp. 529-540. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00014.x
Stability of North Atlantic Deep Water Formation in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model
Power, S. B., Moore, A. M., Post, D. A., Smith, N. R. and Kleeman, R.. 1994. "Stability of North Atlantic Deep Water Formation in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 24 (5), pp. 904-916. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0904:SONADW>2.0.CO;2
Frictionally Modified Continental Shelf Waves and the Subinertial Response to Wind and Deep-Ocean Forcing
Power, Scott B., Middleton, Jason H. and Grimshaw, R. H. J.. 1989. "Frictionally Modified Continental Shelf Waves and the Subinertial Response to Wind and Deep-Ocean Forcing." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 19 (10), pp. 1486-1506. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019<1486:FMCSWA>2.0.CO;2
Multiple Equilibria in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model
Power, S. B. and Kleeman, R.. 1993. "Multiple Equilibria in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 23 (8), pp. 1670-1681. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1993)023<1670:MEIAGO>2.0.CO;2
Climate Drift in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model
Power, Scott B.. 1995. "Climate Drift in a Global Ocean General Circulation Model." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 25 (6), pp. 1025-1036. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<1025:CDIAGO>2.0.CO;2
A recent change in the mean state of the Pacific basin climate: Observational evidence and atmospheric and oceanic responses
Kleeman, Richard, Colman, Robert A., Smith, Neville R. and Power, Scott B.. 1996. "A recent change in the mean state of the Pacific basin climate: Observational evidence and atmospheric and oceanic responses." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 101 (C9), pp. 20483-20499. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JC01795
A Simple Atmospheric Model of Surface Heat Flux for Use in Ocean Modeling Studies
Kleeman, Richard and Power, Scott B.. 1995. "A Simple Atmospheric Model of Surface Heat Flux for Use in Ocean Modeling Studies." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 25 (1), pp. 92-105. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<0092:ASAMOS>2.0.CO;2
Large-Scale, Low-Frequency Barotropic Circulation on Continental Margins
Power, Scott B., Grimshaw, Roger H. J. and Middleton, Jason H.. 1990. "Large-Scale, Low-Frequency Barotropic Circulation on Continental Margins." Journal of Physical Oceanography. 20 (5), pp. 769-785. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0769:LSLFBC>2.0.CO;2
Stochastic variability at the air‐sea interface on decadal timescales
Power, S. B., Tseitkin, F., Dix, M., Kleeman, R., Colman, R. and Holland, D.. 1995. "Stochastic variability at the air‐sea interface on decadal timescales." Geophysical Research Letters. 22 (19), pp. 2593-2596. https://doi.org/10.1029/95GL02655
A non‐flux corrected transient CO2 experiment using the BMRC Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean GCM
Colman, R. A., Power, S. B., McAvaney, B. J. and Dahni, R. R.. 1995. "A non‐flux corrected transient CO2 experiment using the BMRC Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean GCM." Geophysical Research Letters. 22 (22), pp. 3047-3050. https://doi.org/10.1029/95GL01727
Free waves in stratified lakes
Power, S. B. and Grimshaw, R. H. J.. 1990. "Free waves in stratified lakes." Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics. 55 (1), pp. 47-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929008208944
Fluid transport through Bass Strait
Baines, Peter G., Hubbert, Graeme and Power, Scott. 1991. "Fluid transport through Bass Strait." Continental Shelf Research. 11 (3), pp. 269-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(91)90069-I
The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia: Lessons for climate scientists
Power, Scott, Sadler, Brian and Nicholls, Neville. 2005. "The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia: Lessons for climate scientists." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 86 (6), pp. 839-844. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-6-839
Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation, 1910-1992: Coherent variability and recent changes
Power, Scott, Tseitkin, Faina, Torok, Simon, Lavery, Beth, Dahni, Robert and McAvaney, Bryant. 1998. "Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation, 1910-1992: Coherent variability and recent changes." Australian Meteorological Magazine. 47 (2), pp. 85-101.
Temperature variability in a changing climate
Power, Scott and Nicholls, Neville. 2007. "Temperature variability in a changing climate." Australian Meteorological Magazine. 56 (2), pp. 105-110.
Severe storms inferred from 150 years of sub-daily pressure observations along Victoria’s 'Shipwreck Coast'
Alexander, Lisa V. and Power, Scott. 2009. "Severe storms inferred from 150 years of sub-daily pressure observations along Victoria’s 'Shipwreck Coast'." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 58 (2), pp. 129-133. https://doi.org/10.22499/2.5802.005
On the Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea‐Level Pressure and Sea Ice
Power, Scott B. and Mysak, Lawrence A.. 1992. "On the Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea‐Level Pressure and Sea Ice." Atmosphere-Ocean. 30 (4), pp. 551-577. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1992.9649455
Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji
Walsh, Kevin J.E., Bettio, Lynette, Power, Scott, Fawcett, Robert and Pahalad, Janita. 2001. "Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji." Australian Meteorological Magazine. 50 (3), pp. 195-203.
Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Nino both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?
Power, Scott B. and Smith, Ian N.. 2007. "Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Nino both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?" Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (18), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030854
A multiproxy index of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525-1982
Braganza, Karl, Gergis, Joelle L., Power, Scott B., Risbey, James S. and Fowler, Anthony M.. 2009. "A multiproxy index of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525-1982." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 114 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010896
Simple analytic solutions of the linear delayed-action oscillator equation relevant to ENSO theory
Power, Scott B.. 2010. "Simple analytic solutions of the linear delayed-action oscillator equation relevant to ENSO theory." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 104 (1-2), pp. 251-259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0339-y
ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism
Holbrook, Neil J., Goodwin, Ian D., McGregor, Shayne, Molina, Ernesto and Power, Scott B.. 2011. "ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism." Deep-Sea Research Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography. 58 (5), pp. 547-558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.06.007
Summer peak, winter minimum, and growth in the demand for online weather services in Australia
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois. 2011. "Summer peak, winter minimum, and growth in the demand for online weather services in Australia." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 92 (10), pp. 1275-1277. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3113.1
Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region
Irving, Damien B., Perkins, Sarah E., Brown, Josephine R., Gupta, Alex Sen, Moise, Aurel F., Murphy, Bradley F., Muir, Les C., Colman, Robert A., Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois P. and Brown, Jaclyn N.. 2011. "Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region." Climate Research. 49 (3), pp. 169-187. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01028
CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill
Perkins, Sarah E., Irving, Damien B., Brown, Josephine R., Power, Scott B., Moise, Aurel F., Colman, Robert A. and Smith, Ian. 2012. "CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill." Climate Research. 51 (1), pp. 35-58. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01046
More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming
Cai, Wenju, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Borlace, Simon, Collins, Matthew, Cowan, Tim, McPhaden, Michael J., Timmermann, Axel, Power, Scott, Brown, Josephine, Menkes, Christophe, Ngari, Arona, Vincent, Emmanuel M. and Widlansky, Matthew J.. 2012. "More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming." Nature. 488 (7411), pp. 365-369. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11358
Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability
Power, Scott, Delage, Francois, Chung, Christine, Kociuba, Greg and Keay, Kevin. 2013. "Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability." Nature. 502 (7472), pp. 541-545. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12580
Variability in Severe Coastal Flooding, Associated Storms, and Death Tolls in Southeastern Australia since the Mid–Nineteenth Century
Power, Scott B. and Callaghan, Jeff. 2016. "Variability in Severe Coastal Flooding, Associated Storms, and Death Tolls in Southeastern Australia since the Mid–Nineteenth Century." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 55 (5), pp. 1139-1149. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0146.1
Modeling the Surface Heat Flux Response to Long-Lived SST Anomalies in the North Atlantic
Power, S. B., Kleeman, R., Colman, R. A. and McAvaney, B. J.. 1995. "Modeling the Surface Heat Flux Response to Long-Lived SST Anomalies in the North Atlantic." Journal of Climate. 8 (9), pp. 2161-2180. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2161:MTSHFR>2.0.CO;2
Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part II: The Role of Equatorial/Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses in a Hybrid Coupled Model
McGregor, Shayne, Holbrook, Neil J. and Power, Scott B.. 2008. "Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part II: The Role of Equatorial/Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses in a Hybrid Coupled Model." Journal of Climate. 21 (17), pp. 4242-4256. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2057.1
Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The Role of Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses and Oceanic Rossby Waves
McGregor, Shayne, Holbrook, Neil J. and Power, Scott B.. 2007. "Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The Role of Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses and Oceanic Rossby Waves." Journal of Climate. 20 (11), pp. 2643-2658. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4145.1
Decadal climate variability in Australia during the twentieth century
Power, Scott, Tseitkin, Faina, Mehta, Vikram, Lavery, Beth, Torok, Simon and Holbrook, Neil. 1999. "Decadal climate variability in Australia during the twentieth century." International Journal of Climatology. 19 (2), pp. 169-184. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199902)19:2<169::AID-JOC356>3.0.CO
On the dynamics of interdecadal thermocline depth and sea surface temperature variability in the low to mid-latitude Pacific Ocean
McGregor, Shayne, Holbrook, Neil J. and Power, Scott B.. 2004. "On the dynamics of interdecadal thermocline depth and sea surface temperature variability in the low to mid-latitude Pacific Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 31 (24), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021241
The influence of the Bering Strait on the circulation in a coarse resolution global ocean model
Reason, C. J. C. and Power, S. B.. 1994. "The influence of the Bering Strait on the circulation in a coarse resolution global ocean model." Climate Dynamics. 9 (7), pp. 363-369. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00223448
Eddy parametrization and the oceanic response to idealized global warming
Power, S. B. and Hirst, A. C.. 1997. "Eddy parametrization and the oceanic response to idealized global warming." Climate Dynamics. 13 (6), pp. 417-428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050174
Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model
Power, Scott and Colman, Rob. 2006. "Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model." Climate Dynamics. 26 (2-3), pp. 247-272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0055-y
STOIC: A study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions
Davey, M. K., Huddleston, M., Sperber, K. R., Braconnot, P., Bryan, F., Chen, D., Colman, R. A., Cooper, C., Cubasch, U., Delecluse, P., DeWitt, D., Fairhead, L., Flato, G., Gordon, C., Hogan, T., Ji, M., Kimoto, M., Kitoh, A., Knutson, T. R., ..., Zebiak, S. E.. 2002. "STOIC: A study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions." Climate Dynamics. 18 (5), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0188-6
The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models
Covey, C., Abe-Ouchi, A., Boer, G. J., Boville, B. A., Cubasch, U., Fairhead, L., Flato, G. M., Gordon, H., Guilyardi, E., Jiang, X., Johns, T. C., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Meehl, G. A., Miller, R., Noda, A., Power, S. B., Roeckner, E., Russell, G., ..., von Storch, J.-S.. 2000. "The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models." Climate Dynamics. 16 (10-11), pp. 775-787. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000081
Annual mean meridional energy transport modelled by a general circulation model for present and 2 x CO2 equilibrium climates
Colman, R. A., McAvaney, B. J., Fraser, J. R. and Power, S. B.. 1994. "Annual mean meridional energy transport modelled by a general circulation model for present and 2 x CO2 equilibrium climates." Climate Dynamics. 10 (4-5), pp. 221-229. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208989
The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections
Power, Scott B., Haylock, Malcolm, Colman, Rob and Wang, Xiangdong. 2006. "The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections." Journal of Climate. 19 (19), pp. 4755-4771. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3868.1
The Response of a Stochastically Forced ENSO Model to Observed Off-Equatorial Wind Stress Forcing
McGregor, Shayne, Holbrook, Neil J. and Power, Scott B.. 2009. "The Response of a Stochastically Forced ENSO Model to Observed Off-Equatorial Wind Stress Forcing." Journal of Climate. 22 (10), pp. 2512-2525. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2387.1
The Modulation of ENSO Variability in CCSM3 by Extratropical Rossby Waves
McGregor, Shayne, Gupta, Alex Sen, Holbrook, Neil J. and Power, Scott B.. 2009. "The Modulation of ENSO Variability in CCSM3 by Extratropical Rossby Waves." Journal of Climate. 22 (22), pp. 5839-5853. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2922.1
Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 Climate Model Simulations of the Twentieth Century
Brown, Josephine R., Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois P., Colman, Robert A., Moise, Aurel F. and Murphy, Bradley F.. 2011. "Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 Climate Model Simulations of the Twentieth Century." Journal of Climate. 24 (6), pp. 1565-1582. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3942.1
What Caused the Observed Twentieth-Century Weakening of the Walker Circulation
Power, Scott B. and Kociuba, Greg. 2011. "What Caused the Observed Twentieth-Century Weakening of the Walker Circulation." Journal of Climate. 24 (24), pp. 6501-6514. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4101.1
Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought
Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois, Colman, Robert and Moise, Aurel. 2012. "Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought." Journal of Climate. 25 (11), pp. 3792-3809. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00354.1
Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing
Wang, Guomin, Power, Scott B. and McGree, Simon. 2015. "Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing." International Journal of Climatology. 36 (2), pp. 933-944. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4395
Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere
Power, Scott, Saurral, Ramiro, Chung, Christine, Colman, Rob, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Boer, George, Gergis, Joelle, Henley, Benjamin, McGregor, Shayne, Arblaster, Julie, Holbrook, Neil and Liguori, Giovanni. 2017. "Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere." Past Global Changes Magazine. 25 (1), pp. 32-40. https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.1.32
Estimating future rainfall distributions in a changing climate for water resource planning: Victoria, Australia
Rauniyar, Surendra P. and Power, Scott B.. 2022. "Estimating future rainfall distributions in a changing climate for water resource planning: Victoria, Australia ." Climate Dynamics. 60, pp. 527-547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06330-0
Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World
Narsey, Sugata, Brown, Josephine R., Delage, Francois, Boschat, Ghyslaine, Grose, Michael, Colman, Rob and Power, Scott. 2022. "Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World ." Journal of Climate. 35 (20), p. 6549–6567. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0433.1
Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models
Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Utembe, Steven, Caron, Louis‑Philippe and Guishard, Mark. 2021. "Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models." Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04977-2
Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
Kushnir, Yochanan, Scaife, Adam A., Arritt, Raymond, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Boer, George, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Hawkins, Ed, Kimoto, Masahide, Kolli, Rupa Kumar, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Matthes, Katja, Muller, Wolfgang A., O’Kane, Terence, Perlwitz, Judith, Power, Scott, Raphael, Marilyn, Shimpo, Akihiko, Smith, Doug, ..., Wu, Bo. 2019. "Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate." Nature Climate Change. 9 (2), pp. 94-101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model
Walland, D. J., Power, S. B. and Hirst, A. C.. 2000. "Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model." Climate Dynamics. 16 (2-3), pp. 201-211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050013
Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model
Colman, R. A., Power, S. B. and McAvaney, B. J.. 1997. "Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model." Climate Dynamics. 13 (10), pp. 717-731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050193
Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2011. "Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century." Climate Dynamics. 37 (3-4), pp. 647-662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V.. 1999. "Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia." Climate Dynamics. 15 (5), pp. 319-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284
Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability
Colman, Robert A. and Power, Scott B.. 2010. "Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability." Climate Dynamics. 34 (7-8), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0541-8
The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index
Power, Scott B. and Kociuba, Greg. 2011. "The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index." Climate Dynamics. 37 (9-10), pp. 1745-1754. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0951-7
Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Arblaster, Julie M., Rashid, Harun A. and Roff, Gregory L.. 2014. "Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 42 (7-8), pp. 1837-1856. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8
A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012
Salinger, M. J., McGree, Simon, Beucher, Florent, Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois. 2014. "A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012." Climate Dynamics. 43 (3-4), pp. 881-892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y
The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability
Bayr, Tobias, Dommenget, Dietmar, Martin, Thomas and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability." Climate Dynamics. 43 (9-10), pp. 2747-2763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y
Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T.Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2016. "Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 47 (3-4), pp. 1303-1323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2902-9
Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams
Smith, Ian and Power, Scott. 2014. "Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2, pp. 84-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.005
Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 64 (3), pp. 183-214. https://doi.org/10.22499/2.6403.002
Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 43 (12), pp. 3293-3307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2105-9
Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects
Power, Scott, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Capotondi, Antonietta, Khodri, Myriam, Vialard, Jerome, Jebri, Beyrem, Guilyardi, Eric, McGregor, Shayne, Kug, Jong-Seong, Newman, Matthew, McPhaden, Michael J., Meehl, Gerald, Smith, Doug, Cole, Julia, Emile-Geay, Julien, Vimont, Daniel, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Collins, Mat, Kim, Geon-Il, ..., Henley, Benjamin J.. 2021. "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects." Science. 374 (6563), pp. 48-57. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
Climate science: expulsion from history
Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Climate science: expulsion from history." Nature. 511 (7507), pp. 38-39. https://doi.org/10.1038/511038a
Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges
Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Hope, Pandora, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, ..., Delage, Francois. 2019. "Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (3), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?
Timbal, B., Power, S., Colman, R., Viviand, J. and Lirola, S.. 2002. "Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?" Journal of Climate. 15 (10), pp. 1230-1238. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1230:DSMICV>2.0.CO;2
El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity
Timmermann, Axel, An, Soon Il, Kug, Jong Seong, Jin, Fei Fei, Cai, Wenju, Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Lengaigne, Matthieu, McPhaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Stein, Karl, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Yun, Kyung Sook, Bayr, Tobias, Chen, Han-Ching, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Dewitte, Boris, Dommenget, Dietmar, Grothe, Pamela, ..., Zhang, Xuebin. 2018. "El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity." Nature. 559, pp. 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Gergis, Joelle, Karoly, David J., Power, Scott, Kennedy, John and Folland, Chris K.. 2015. "A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Climate Dynamics. 45 (11-12), pp. 3077-3090. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1
A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (4), pp. 380-401. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6604.002
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Meehl, Gerald, Power, Scott B., Folland, Chris K., King, Andrew D., Brown, Jaclyn N., Karoly, David J., Delage, Francois, Gallant, Ailie J. E., Freund, Mandy and Neukom, Raphael. 2017. "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (4), pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8
Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands
Lough, Janice, Gupta, Alex Sen, Power, Scott B., Grose, Michael R. and McGree, Simon. 2016. "Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands." Taylor, Mary, McGregor, Andrew and Dawson, Brian (ed.) Vulnerability of Pacific island agriculture and forestry to climate change. Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia. Pacific Community. pp. 47-101
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino
Collins, Mat, An, Soon-Il, Cai, Wenju, Ganachaud, Alexandre, Guilyardi, Eric, Jin, Fei Fei, Jochum, Markus, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott, Timmermann, Axel, Vecchi, Gabe and Wittenberg, Andrew. 2010. "The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino." Nature Geoscience. 3 (6), pp. 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868
Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections
Kociuba, Greg and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections." Journal of Climate. 28 (1), pp. 20-35. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1
Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific." Journal of Climate. 28 (8), pp. 3133-3151. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00610.1
The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century
Power, Scott B. and Callaghan, Jeff. 2016. "The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (1), pp. 2-11. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6601.002
More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century
Maher, Nicola, Power, Scott B. and Marotzke, Jochem. 2021. "More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century." Nature Communications. 12 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models
Narsey, S. Y., Brown, J. R., Colman, R. A., Delage, F., Power, S. B., Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H.. 2020. "Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (13), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816
ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region
Smith, Ian, Moise, Aurel, Inape, Kasis, Murphy, Brad, Colman, Rob, Power, Scott and Chung, Christine. 2013. "ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (19), pp. 10,665-10,675. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50818
The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates
Murphy, Bradley F., Power, Scott B. and McGree, Simon. 2014. "The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates." Journal of Climate. 27 (11), pp. 4015-4036. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00130.1
The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 67 (1), pp. 25-45. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6701.003
Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall
Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois P. D., Chung, Christine T. Y., Ye, Hua and Murphy, Bradley F.. 2017. "Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall." Nature Communications. 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14368
Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Santoso, Agus and Wang, Guomin. 2017. "Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 30 (12), pp. 4413-4427. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1
Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P. D.. 2019. "Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century." Nature Climate Change. 9 (7), pp. 529-534. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0498-5
The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Sullivan, Arnold and Delage, Francois. 2019. "The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability." Scientific Reports. 9 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52805-2
ENSO response to greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus, Wang, Guojian, Wu, Lixin, Collins, Mat, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott and Timmermann, Axel. 2021. "ENSO response to greenhouse forcing." McPhaden, Michael J., Santoso, Agus and Cai, Wenju (ed.) El Nino Southern Oscillation in a changing climate. United States. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 289-307
Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections
Power, Scott, Delage, Francois, Wang, Guomin, Smith, Ian and Kociuba, Greg. 2017. "Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections." Climate Dynamics. 49 (1-2), pp. 53-69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3326-x
El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P.D.. 2018. "El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century." Journal of Climate. 31 (15), pp. 6189-6207. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1
What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?
Colman, Robert and Power, Scott B.. 2018. "What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?" Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3815-3828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7
The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia
Delage, Francois P. D. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia." Climate Dynamics. 54 (9-10), pp. 4367-4377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05235-0
The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia
Rauniyar, Surendra P. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia." Journal of Climate. 33 (18), pp. 8087-8106. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1
Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package
Planton, Yann Y., Guilyardi, Eric, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Lee, Jiwoo, Gleckler, Peter J., Bayr, Tobias, McGregor, Shayne, McPhaden, Michael J., Power, Scott, Roehrig, Romain, Vialard, Jerome and Voldoire, Aurore. 2021. "Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (2), pp. E193-E217. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0337.1
The UK-China Climate Science to Service Partnership
Scaife, Adam A., Good, Elizabeth, Sun, Ying, Yan, Zhongwei, Dunstone, Nick, Ren, Hong-Li Ren, Li, Chaofan, Lu, Riyu, Wu, Peili, Ke, Zongjian, Ma, Zhuguo, Furtado, Kalli, Wu, Tongwen, Zhou, Tianjuan, Dunbar, Tyrone, Hewitt, Chris, Golding, Nicola, Zhang, Peiqun, Allan, Rob, ..., Belcher, Stephen. 2021. "The UK-China Climate Science to Service Partnership." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0055.1
Recommendations for Future Research Priorities for Climate Modeling and Climate Services
Hewitt, C. D., Guglielmo, F., Joussaume, S., Bessembinder, J., Christel, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Djurdjevic, V., Garrett, N., Kjellstrom, E., Krzic, A., Costa, M. Manez and St. Clair, A. L.. 2021. "Recommendations for Future Research Priorities for Climate Modeling and Climate Services." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (3), pp. E578 -E588. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0103.1
Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469
Causes of climate change over the historical record
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine. 2019. "Causes of climate change over the historical record." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
Chand, Savin S., Dowdy, Andrew J., Ramsay, Hamish A., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Tory, Kevin J., Power, Scott B., Bell, Samuel S., Lavender, Sally L., Ye, Hua and Kuleshov, Yuri. 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends." WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.602
Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system
Slivinski, Laura C., Compo, Gilbert P., Whitaker, Jeffrey S., Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Giese, Benjamin S., McColl, Chesley, Allan, Rob, Yin, Xungang, Vose, Russell, Titchner, Holly, Kennedy, John, Spencer, Lawrence J., Ashcroft, Linden, Bronnimann, Stefan, Brunet, Manola, Camuffo, Dario, Cornes, Richard, Cram, Thomas A., Crouthamel, Richard, ..., Wyszynski, Przemysław. 2019. "Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145 (724), pp. 2876-2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Jones, Anthony C., Haywood, James M., Dunstone, Nick, Emanuel, Kerry, Hawcroft, Matthew K., Hodges, Kevin I. and Jones, Andy. 2017. "Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency." Nature Communications. 8 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01606-0
The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model
Haywood, Jim M., Jones, Andy, Dunstone, Nick, Milton, Sean, Vellinga, Michael, Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro, Hawcroft, Matt, Kravitz, Ben, Cole, Jason, Watanabe, Shingo and Stephens, Graeme. 2016. "The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model." Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (1), pp. 395-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903
Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models
Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Caron, Louis-Philippe, King, Malcolm, Monkiewicz, Sam, Guishard, Mark, Zhang, Qiong and Hunt, barrie. 2018. "Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models." Science Advances. 4 (8), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat6509
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14
Knight, Jeff R., Maidens, Anna, Watson, Peter A. G., Andrews, Martin, Belcher, Stephen, Brunet, Gilbert, Fereday, David, Folland, Chris K., Scaife, Adam A. and Slingo, Julia. 2017. "Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (7). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa693c
Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pachauri, Rajendra K., Allen, Myles R., Barros, Vicente R., Broome, John, Cramer, Wolfgang, Christ, Renate, Church, John A., Clarke, Leon, Dahe, Qin, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Dubash, Navroz K., Edenhofer, Ottmar, Elgizouli, Ismail, Field, Christopher B., Forster, Piers, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Hallegatte, Stephane, ..., van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal. 2015. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. IPCC.
Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop
Holbrook, Neil J., Li, Jianping, Collins, Matthew, Di Lorenzo, Emanuele, Jin, Fei-Fei, Knutson, Thomas, Latif, Mojib, Li, Chongyin, Power, Scott B., Huang, Rhonghui and Wu, Guoxiong. 2014. "Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95 (8), pp. 155-158. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00201.1
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Collins, Matthew, Arblaster, Julie, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Marotzke, Jochem, Power, Scott B., Rummukainen, Markku and Zhou, Tianjun. 2013. "Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections." Stocker, Thomas F., Qin, Dahe, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Tignor, Melinda M.B., Allen, Simon K., Boschung, Judith, Nauels, Alexander, Xia, Yu, Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M. (ed.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1311-1393
El Nino – Southern Oscillation
Holbrook, Neil J., Brown, Jaclyn N., Davidson, Julie, Feng, Ming, Hobday, Alistair J., Lough, Janice M., McGregor, Shayne, Power, Scott B. and Risbey, James S.. 2012. "El Nino – Southern Oscillation." Poloczanska, Elvira S., Hobday, Alistair J. and Richardson, Anthony J. (ed.) Marine Climate Change in Australia: Impacts and Adaptation Responses - 2012 REPORT CARD. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 81-112
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Impact of Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in a Coupled GCM
Rashid, Harun A., Power, Scott B. and Knight, Jeff R.. 2010. "Impact of Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in a Coupled GCM." Journal of Climate. 23 (14), pp. 4038-4044. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3430.1
Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia
Anwar, M. R., Rodriguez, D., Liu, D. L., Power, S. and O'Leary, G. J.. 2008. "Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 59 (2), pp. 112-126. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR07061
Making climate model forecasts more useful
Power, S. B., Plummer, N. and Alford, P.. 2007. "Making climate model forecasts more useful." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 58 (10), pp. 945-951. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06196
Attribution of the Late-Twentieth-Century Rainfall Decline in Southwest Australia
Timbal, Bertrand, Arblaster, Julie M. and Power, Scott. 2006. "Attribution of the Late-Twentieth-Century Rainfall Decline in Southwest Australia." Journal of Climate. 19 (10), pp. 2046-2062. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3817.1
ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project
Latif, Mojib, Sperber, K., Arblaster, J., Braconnot, P., Chen, D., Colman, A., Cubasch, U., Cooper, C., Delecluse, P., DeWitt, D., Fairhead, L., Flato, G., Hogan, T., Ji, M., Kimoto, M., Kitoh, A., Knutson, T., Le Treut, H., Li, T., ..., Zebiak, S.. 2001. "ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project." Climate Dynamics. 18 (3-4), pp. 255-276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100174