Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C
Article
Article Title | Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C |
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ERA Journal ID | 1874 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Smith, D. M. (Author), Scaife, A. A. (Author), Hawkins, E. (Author), Bilbao, R. (Author), Boer, G. J. (Author), Caian, M. (Author), Caron, L.-P. (Author), Danabasoglu, G. (Author), Delworth, T. (Author), Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (Author), Doescher, R. (Author), Dunstone, N. J. (Author), Eade, R. (Author), Hermanson, L. (Author), Ishii, M. (Author), Kharin, V. (Author), Kimoto, M. (Author), Koenigk, T. (Author), Kushnir, Y. (Author), Matei, D. (Author), Meehl, G. A. (Author), Menegoz, M. (Author), Merryfield, W. J. (Author), Mochizuki, T. (Author), Muller, W. A. (Author), Pohlmann, H. (Author), Power, S. (Author), Rixen, M. (Author), Sospedra-Alfonso, R. (Author), Tuma, M. (Author), Wyser, K. (Author), Yang, X. (Author) and Yeager, S. (Author) |
Journal Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
Journal Citation | 45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903 |
Number of Pages | 9 |
Year | 2018 |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
Place of Publication | Washington, United States |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
1944-8007 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362 |
Web Address (URL) | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079362 |
Abstract | The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events. |
Keywords | global and regional planning; climate change; advanced warnings; anthropogenic global warming; anthropogenic warming; global temperatures; internal variability; policy makers; pre-industrial levels |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
Byline Affiliations | Met Office, United Kingdom |
University of Reading, United Kingdom | |
Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain | |
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada | |
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden | |
National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States | |
Princeton University, United States | |
Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan | |
Environment and Climate Change, Canada | |
University of Tokyo, Japan | |
Columbia University, United States | |
Max Planck Society, Germany | |
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan | |
Australian Bureau of Meteorology | |
World Climate Research Program, Switzerland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q66x3/predicted-chance-that-global-warming-will-temporarily-exceed-1-5-c
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Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will TemporarilyExceed 1.5 °C.pdf | ||
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