Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

Article

Colman, R. A., Power, S. B. and McAvaney, B. J.. 1997. "Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model." Climate Dynamics. 13 (10), pp. 717-731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050193
Article Title

Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

ERA Journal ID1962
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsColman, R. A. (Author), Power, S. B. (Author) and McAvaney, B. J. (Author)
Journal TitleClimate Dynamics
Journal Citation13 (10), pp. 717-731
Number of Pages15
Year1997
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationNew York, United States
ISSN0930-7575
1432-0894
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050193
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s003820050193
Abstract

A method is described for evaluating the 'partial derivatives' of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basic climate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly non-linear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the non-linear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest non-linear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and non-linear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant non-linear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity.

Keywordssea-surface temperature; water-vapour; lapse-rate; cloud; sensitivity; snow
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
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Byline AffiliationsAustralian Bureau of Meteorology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought
Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois, Colman, Robert and Moise, Aurel. 2012. "Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought." Journal of Climate. 25 (11), pp. 3792-3809. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00354.1
Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing
Wang, Guomin, Power, Scott B. and McGree, Simon. 2015. "Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing." International Journal of Climatology. 36 (2), pp. 933-944. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4395
Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere
Power, Scott, Saurral, Ramiro, Chung, Christine, Colman, Rob, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Boer, George, Gergis, Joelle, Henley, Benjamin, McGregor, Shayne, Arblaster, Julie, Holbrook, Neil and Liguori, Giovanni. 2017. "Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere." Past Global Changes Magazine. 25 (1), pp. 32-40. https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.1.32
Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World
Narsey, Sugata, Brown, Josephine R., Delage, Francois, Boschat, Ghyslaine, Grose, Michael, Colman, Rob and Power, Scott. 2022. "Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World ." Journal of Climate. 35 (20), p. 6549–6567. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0433.1
Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
Kushnir, Yochanan, Scaife, Adam A., Arritt, Raymond, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Boer, George, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Hawkins, Ed, Kimoto, Masahide, Kolli, Rupa Kumar, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Matthes, Katja, Muller, Wolfgang A., O’Kane, Terence, Perlwitz, Judith, Power, Scott, Raphael, Marilyn, Shimpo, Akihiko, Smith, Doug, ..., Wu, Bo. 2019. "Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate." Nature Climate Change. 9 (2), pp. 94-101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model
Walland, D. J., Power, S. B. and Hirst, A. C.. 2000. "Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model." Climate Dynamics. 16 (2-3), pp. 201-211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050013
Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2011. "Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century." Climate Dynamics. 37 (3-4), pp. 647-662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V.. 1999. "Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia." Climate Dynamics. 15 (5), pp. 319-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284
Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability
Colman, Robert A. and Power, Scott B.. 2010. "Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability." Climate Dynamics. 34 (7-8), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0541-8
The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index
Power, Scott B. and Kociuba, Greg. 2011. "The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index." Climate Dynamics. 37 (9-10), pp. 1745-1754. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0951-7
Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Arblaster, Julie M., Rashid, Harun A. and Roff, Gregory L.. 2014. "Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 42 (7-8), pp. 1837-1856. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8
A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012
Salinger, M. J., McGree, Simon, Beucher, Florent, Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois. 2014. "A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012." Climate Dynamics. 43 (3-4), pp. 881-892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y
The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability
Bayr, Tobias, Dommenget, Dietmar, Martin, Thomas and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability." Climate Dynamics. 43 (9-10), pp. 2747-2763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y
Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T.Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2016. "Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 47 (3-4), pp. 1303-1323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2902-9
Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams
Smith, Ian and Power, Scott. 2014. "Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2, pp. 84-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.005
Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 64 (3), pp. 183-214. https://doi.org/10.22499/2.6403.002
Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 43 (12), pp. 3293-3307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2105-9
Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects
Power, Scott, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Capotondi, Antonietta, Khodri, Myriam, Vialard, Jerome, Jebri, Beyrem, Guilyardi, Eric, McGregor, Shayne, Kug, Jong-Seong, Newman, Matthew, McPhaden, Michael J., Meehl, Gerald, Smith, Doug, Cole, Julia, Emile-Geay, Julien, Vimont, Daniel, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Collins, Mat, Kim, Geon-Il, ..., Henley, Benjamin J.. 2021. "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects." Science. 374 (6563), pp. 48-57. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
Climate science: expulsion from history
Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Climate science: expulsion from history." Nature. 511 (7507), pp. 38-39. https://doi.org/10.1038/511038a
Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., ..., Yeager, S.. 2018. "Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C." Geophysical Research Letters. 45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges
Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Hope, Pandora, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, ..., Delage, Francois. 2019. "Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (3), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?
Timbal, B., Power, S., Colman, R., Viviand, J. and Lirola, S.. 2002. "Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?" Journal of Climate. 15 (10), pp. 1230-1238. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1230:DSMICV>2.0.CO;2
El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity
Timmermann, Axel, An, Soon Il, Kug, Jong Seong, Jin, Fei Fei, Cai, Wenju, Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Lengaigne, Matthieu, McPhaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Stein, Karl, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Yun, Kyung Sook, Bayr, Tobias, Chen, Han-Ching, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Dewitte, Boris, Dommenget, Dietmar, Grothe, Pamela, ..., Zhang, Xuebin. 2018. "El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity." Nature. 559, pp. 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Gergis, Joelle, Karoly, David J., Power, Scott, Kennedy, John and Folland, Chris K.. 2015. "A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Climate Dynamics. 45 (11-12), pp. 3077-3090. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1
A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (4), pp. 380-401. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6604.002
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Meehl, Gerald, Power, Scott B., Folland, Chris K., King, Andrew D., Brown, Jaclyn N., Karoly, David J., Delage, Francois, Gallant, Ailie J. E., Freund, Mandy and Neukom, Raphael. 2017. "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (4), pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8
Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands
Lough, Janice, Gupta, Alex Sen, Power, Scott B., Grose, Michael R. and McGree, Simon. 2016. "Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands." Taylor, Mary, McGregor, Andrew and Dawson, Brian (ed.) Vulnerability of Pacific island agriculture and forestry to climate change. Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia. Pacific Community. pp. 47-101
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino
Collins, Mat, An, Soon-Il, Cai, Wenju, Ganachaud, Alexandre, Guilyardi, Eric, Jin, Fei Fei, Jochum, Markus, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott, Timmermann, Axel, Vecchi, Gabe and Wittenberg, Andrew. 2010. "The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino." Nature Geoscience. 3 (6), pp. 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868
Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections
Kociuba, Greg and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections." Journal of Climate. 28 (1), pp. 20-35. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1
Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific." Journal of Climate. 28 (8), pp. 3133-3151. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00610.1
The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century
Power, Scott B. and Callaghan, Jeff. 2016. "The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (1), pp. 2-11. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6601.002
More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century
Maher, Nicola, Power, Scott B. and Marotzke, Jochem. 2021. "More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century." Nature Communications. 12 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models
Narsey, S. Y., Brown, J. R., Colman, R. A., Delage, F., Power, S. B., Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H.. 2020. "Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (13), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816
ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region
Smith, Ian, Moise, Aurel, Inape, Kasis, Murphy, Brad, Colman, Rob, Power, Scott and Chung, Christine. 2013. "ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (19), pp. 10,665-10,675. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50818
The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates
Murphy, Bradley F., Power, Scott B. and McGree, Simon. 2014. "The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates." Journal of Climate. 27 (11), pp. 4015-4036. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00130.1
The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 67 (1), pp. 25-45. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6701.003
Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall
Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois P. D., Chung, Christine T. Y., Ye, Hua and Murphy, Bradley F.. 2017. "Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall." Nature Communications. 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14368
Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Santoso, Agus and Wang, Guomin. 2017. "Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 30 (12), pp. 4413-4427. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1
Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P. D.. 2019. "Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century." Nature Climate Change. 9 (7), pp. 529-534. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0498-5
The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Sullivan, Arnold and Delage, Francois. 2019. "The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability." Scientific Reports. 9 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52805-2
ENSO response to greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus, Wang, Guojian, Wu, Lixin, Collins, Mat, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott and Timmermann, Axel. 2021. "ENSO response to greenhouse forcing." McPhaden, Michael J., Santoso, Agus and Cai, Wenju (ed.) El Nino Southern Oscillation in a changing climate. United States. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 289-307
Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections
Power, Scott, Delage, Francois, Wang, Guomin, Smith, Ian and Kociuba, Greg. 2017. "Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections." Climate Dynamics. 49 (1-2), pp. 53-69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3326-x
El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P.D.. 2018. "El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century." Journal of Climate. 31 (15), pp. 6189-6207. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1
What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?
Colman, Robert and Power, Scott B.. 2018. "What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?" Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3815-3828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7
The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia
Delage, Francois P. D. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia." Climate Dynamics. 54 (9-10), pp. 4367-4377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05235-0
The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia
Rauniyar, Surendra P. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia." Journal of Climate. 33 (18), pp. 8087-8106. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1
Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package
Planton, Yann Y., Guilyardi, Eric, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Lee, Jiwoo, Gleckler, Peter J., Bayr, Tobias, McGregor, Shayne, McPhaden, Michael J., Power, Scott, Roehrig, Romain, Vialard, Jerome and Voldoire, Aurore. 2021. "Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (2), pp. E193-E217. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0337.1
Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
Chand, Savin S., Dowdy, Andrew J., Ramsay, Hamish A., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Tory, Kevin J., Power, Scott B., Bell, Samuel S., Lavender, Sally L., Ye, Hua and Kuleshov, Yuri. 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends." WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.602
Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pachauri, Rajendra K., Allen, Myles R., Barros, Vicente R., Broome, John, Cramer, Wolfgang, Christ, Renate, Church, John A., Clarke, Leon, Dahe, Qin, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Dubash, Navroz K., Edenhofer, Ottmar, Elgizouli, Ismail, Field, Christopher B., Forster, Piers, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Hallegatte, Stephane, ..., van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal. 2015. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. IPCC.
Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop
Holbrook, Neil J., Li, Jianping, Collins, Matthew, Di Lorenzo, Emanuele, Jin, Fei-Fei, Knutson, Thomas, Latif, Mojib, Li, Chongyin, Power, Scott B., Huang, Rhonghui and Wu, Guoxiong. 2014. "Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95 (8), pp. 155-158. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00201.1
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Collins, Matthew, Arblaster, Julie, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Marotzke, Jochem, Power, Scott B., Rummukainen, Markku and Zhou, Tianjun. 2013. "Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections." Stocker, Thomas F., Qin, Dahe, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Tignor, Melinda M.B., Allen, Simon K., Boschung, Judith, Nauels, Alexander, Xia, Yu, Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M. (ed.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1311-1393
El Nino – Southern Oscillation
Holbrook, Neil J., Brown, Jaclyn N., Davidson, Julie, Feng, Ming, Hobday, Alistair J., Lough, Janice M., McGregor, Shayne, Power, Scott B. and Risbey, James S.. 2012. "El Nino – Southern Oscillation." Poloczanska, Elvira S., Hobday, Alistair J. and Richardson, Anthony J. (ed.) Marine Climate Change in Australia: Impacts and Adaptation Responses - 2012 REPORT CARD. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 81-112
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Impact of Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in a Coupled GCM
Rashid, Harun A., Power, Scott B. and Knight, Jeff R.. 2010. "Impact of Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in a Coupled GCM." Journal of Climate. 23 (14), pp. 4038-4044. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3430.1
Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia
Anwar, M. R., Rodriguez, D., Liu, D. L., Power, S. and O'Leary, G. J.. 2008. "Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 59 (2), pp. 112-126. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR07061
Climate models and their evaluation
Randall, David A., Wood, Richard A., Bony, Sandrine, Colman, Robert, Fichefet, Thierry, Fyfe, John, Kattsov, Vladimir, Pitman, Andrew, Shukla, Jagadish, Srinivasan, Jayaraman, Stouffer, Ronald J., Sumi, Akimasa and Taylor, K.E.. 2007. "Climate models and their evaluation." Solomon, Susan, Dahe, Qin, Manning, Martin, Marquis, Melinda, Averyt, Kristen, Tignor, Melinda M. B., Miller, Henry LeRoy and Chen, Zhenlin (ed.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 589-662
Making climate model forecasts more useful
Power, S. B., Plummer, N. and Alford, P.. 2007. "Making climate model forecasts more useful." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 58 (10), pp. 945-951. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06196
Attribution of the Late-Twentieth-Century Rainfall Decline in Southwest Australia
Timbal, Bertrand, Arblaster, Julie M. and Power, Scott. 2006. "Attribution of the Late-Twentieth-Century Rainfall Decline in Southwest Australia." Journal of Climate. 19 (10), pp. 2046-2062. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3817.1
ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project
Latif, Mojib, Sperber, K., Arblaster, J., Braconnot, P., Chen, D., Colman, A., Cubasch, U., Cooper, C., Delecluse, P., DeWitt, D., Fairhead, L., Flato, G., Hogan, T., Ji, M., Kimoto, M., Kitoh, A., Knutson, T., Le Treut, H., Li, T., ..., Zebiak, S.. 2001. "ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project." Climate Dynamics. 18 (3-4), pp. 255-276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100174