CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill

Article


Perkins, Sarah E., Irving, Damien B., Brown, Josephine R., Power, Scott B., Moise, Aurel F., Colman, Robert A. and Smith, Ian. 2012. "CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill." Climate Research. 51 (1), pp. 35-58. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01046
Article Title

CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill

ERA Journal ID1964
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPerkins, Sarah E. (Author), Irving, Damien B. (Author), Brown, Josephine R. (Author), Power, Scott B. (Author), Moise, Aurel F. (Author), Colman, Robert A. (Author) and Smith, Ian (Author)
Journal TitleClimate Research
Journal Citation51 (1), pp. 35-58
Number of Pages24
Year2012
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN0936-577X
1616-1572
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01046
Web Address (URL)https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP107135
Abstract

Climate projections provide important information for risk assessment and adaptation planning. The CMIP3 archive of global climate model (GCM) simulations has been used extensively for such projections over land-based regions, but limited attention has been paid to the western tropical Pacific, where vulnerability is likely to be high. Adaptation policies within the western Pacific currently are based on the heavily summarised information within the IPCC fourth assessment report. This study builds upon the IPCC projections by analysing and presenting projections of change from the CMIP3 GCMs and demonstrating spatial differences in projections across the west Pacific domain. Atmospheric fields considered in this paper include surface air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction for the SRES A2 emission scenario for 2080-2099, where the projected change is relative to 1980-1999. Results for all fields are based on 3 types of multi-model ensembles: the all-model (ALL) ensemble (19 models), the BEST ensemble (15 models) and the WORST ensemble (4 models). The BEST and WORST ensembles are based on model skill in simulating relevant climatic features, drivers and variables, which govern the interannual and annual climate of the study region. The WORST ensemble was found to generally exhibit a statistically significant bias in projections for precipitation, wind speed and wind direction in reference to the ALL ensemble. This bias is always statistically significantly different for surface air temperature. Some biases are still present in the BEST ensemble for all variables in comparison to the ALL ensemble, and uncertainty is not always reduced when the WORST models are eliminated from the ensemble. Overall, we advocate the use of the BEST ensemble when considering domain-wide projections due to the ability of the model members to simulate the current climate across the region. © Inter-Research 2012.

KeywordsMeteorology; Atmospheric Properties; Computer Applications; Applied Mathematics; Probability Theory; Global and Regional Planning; Weather and climate forecasting; Regional and general; THE ATMOSPHERE; Atmospheric fields; Climate projection; Climatic features; Emission scenario; Ensembles; Global climate model; Interannual; Model skill; Multi-model ensemble; Pacific region; Spatial differences; Surface air temperatures; Western Pacific; Wind directions; Wind speed; Climate projections; CMIP3 climate models; Ensembles; Pacific region;
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
Byline AffiliationsCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Colman, Robert A. and Power, Scott B.. 2010. "Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability." Climate Dynamics. 34 (7-8), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0541-8
The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index
Power, Scott B. and Kociuba, Greg. 2011. "The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index." Climate Dynamics. 37 (9-10), pp. 1745-1754. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0951-7
Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Arblaster, Julie M., Rashid, Harun A. and Roff, Gregory L.. 2014. "Nonlinear precipitation response to El Nino and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 42 (7-8), pp. 1837-1856. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8
A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012
Salinger, M. J., McGree, Simon, Beucher, Florent, Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois. 2014. "A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11-2011/2012." Climate Dynamics. 43 (3-4), pp. 881-892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y
The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability
Bayr, Tobias, Dommenget, Dietmar, Martin, Thomas and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability." Climate Dynamics. 43 (9-10), pp. 2747-2763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y
Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T.Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2016. "Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 47 (3-4), pp. 1303-1323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2902-9
Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams
Smith, Ian and Power, Scott. 2014. "Past and future changes to inflows into Perth (Western Australia) dams." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2, pp. 84-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.005
Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860-2012, associated deaths and weather systems." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 64 (3), pp. 183-214. https://doi.org/10.22499/2.6403.002
Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Precipitation response to La Nina and global warming in the Indo-Pacific." Climate Dynamics. 43 (12), pp. 3293-3307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2105-9
Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects
Power, Scott, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Capotondi, Antonietta, Khodri, Myriam, Vialard, Jerome, Jebri, Beyrem, Guilyardi, Eric, McGregor, Shayne, Kug, Jong-Seong, Newman, Matthew, McPhaden, Michael J., Meehl, Gerald, Smith, Doug, Cole, Julia, Emile-Geay, Julien, Vimont, Daniel, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Collins, Mat, Kim, Geon-Il, ..., Henley, Benjamin J.. 2021. "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects." Science. 374 (6563), pp. 48-57. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
Climate science: expulsion from history
Power, Scott B.. 2014. "Climate science: expulsion from history." Nature. 511 (7507), pp. 38-39. https://doi.org/10.1038/511038a
Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., ..., Yeager, S.. 2018. "Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C." Geophysical Research Letters. 45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges
Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Hope, Pandora, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, ..., Delage, Francois. 2019. "Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (3), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?
Timbal, B., Power, S., Colman, R., Viviand, J. and Lirola, S.. 2002. "Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?" Journal of Climate. 15 (10), pp. 1230-1238. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1230:DSMICV>2.0.CO;2
El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity
Timmermann, Axel, An, Soon Il, Kug, Jong Seong, Jin, Fei Fei, Cai, Wenju, Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Lengaigne, Matthieu, McPhaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Stein, Karl, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Yun, Kyung Sook, Bayr, Tobias, Chen, Han-Ching, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Dewitte, Boris, Dommenget, Dietmar, Grothe, Pamela, ..., Zhang, Xuebin. 2018. "El Nino–Southern Oscillation complexity." Nature. 559, pp. 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Gergis, Joelle, Karoly, David J., Power, Scott, Kennedy, John and Folland, Chris K.. 2015. "A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Climate Dynamics. 45 (11-12), pp. 3077-3090. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1
A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia
Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (4), pp. 380-401. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6604.002
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Meehl, Gerald, Power, Scott B., Folland, Chris K., King, Andrew D., Brown, Jaclyn N., Karoly, David J., Delage, Francois, Gallant, Ailie J. E., Freund, Mandy and Neukom, Raphael. 2017. "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (4), pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8
Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands
Lough, Janice, Gupta, Alex Sen, Power, Scott B., Grose, Michael R. and McGree, Simon. 2016. "Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands." Taylor, Mary, McGregor, Andrew and Dawson, Brian (ed.) Vulnerability of Pacific island agriculture and forestry to climate change. Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia. Pacific Community. pp. 47-101
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino
Collins, Mat, An, Soon-Il, Cai, Wenju, Ganachaud, Alexandre, Guilyardi, Eric, Jin, Fei Fei, Jochum, Markus, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott, Timmermann, Axel, Vecchi, Gabe and Wittenberg, Andrew. 2010. "The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino." Nature Geoscience. 3 (6), pp. 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868
Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections
Kociuba, Greg and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections." Journal of Climate. 28 (1), pp. 20-35. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1
Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2015. "Modelled rainfall response to strong El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific." Journal of Climate. 28 (8), pp. 3133-3151. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00610.1
The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century
Power, Scott B. and Callaghan, Jeff. 2016. "The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 66 (1), pp. 2-11. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6601.002
More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century
Maher, Nicola, Power, Scott B. and Marotzke, Jochem. 2021. "More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century." Nature Communications. 12 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models
Narsey, S. Y., Brown, J. R., Colman, R. A., Delage, F., Power, S. B., Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H.. 2020. "Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (13), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816
ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region
Smith, Ian, Moise, Aurel, Inape, Kasis, Murphy, Brad, Colman, Rob, Power, Scott and Chung, Christine. 2013. "ENSO-related rainfall changes over the New Guinea region." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (19), pp. 10,665-10,675. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50818
The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates
Murphy, Bradley F., Power, Scott B. and McGree, Simon. 2014. "The varied impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Pacific Island climates." Journal of Climate. 27 (11), pp. 4015-4036. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00130.1
The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation
Chung, Christine T. Y. and Power, Scott B.. 2017. "The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 67 (1), pp. 25-45. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6701.003
Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall
Power, Scott B., Delage, Francois P. D., Chung, Christine T. Y., Ye, Hua and Murphy, Bradley F.. 2017. "Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall." Nature Communications. 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14368
Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Santoso, Agus and Wang, Guomin. 2017. "Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 30 (12), pp. 4413-4427. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1
Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P. D.. 2019. "Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century." Nature Climate Change. 9 (7), pp. 529-534. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0498-5
The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability
Chung, Christine T. Y., Power, Scott B., Sullivan, Arnold and Delage, Francois. 2019. "The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability." Scientific Reports. 9 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52805-2
ENSO response to greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus, Wang, Guojian, Wu, Lixin, Collins, Mat, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Power, Scott and Timmermann, Axel. 2021. "ENSO response to greenhouse forcing." McPhaden, Michael J., Santoso, Agus and Cai, Wenju (ed.) El Nino Southern Oscillation in a changing climate. United States. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 289-307
Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections
Power, Scott, Delage, Francois, Wang, Guomin, Smith, Ian and Kociuba, Greg. 2017. "Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections." Climate Dynamics. 49 (1-2), pp. 53-69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3326-x
El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century
Power, Scott B. and Delage, Francois P.D.. 2018. "El Nino-Southern oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the twenty-first century." Journal of Climate. 31 (15), pp. 6189-6207. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1
What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?
Colman, Robert and Power, Scott B.. 2018. "What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity?" Climate Dynamics. 51 (9-10), pp. 3815-3828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7
The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia
Delage, Francois P. D. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of global warming and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia." Climate Dynamics. 54 (9-10), pp. 4367-4377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05235-0
The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia
Rauniyar, Surendra P. and Power, Scott B.. 2020. "The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia." Journal of Climate. 33 (18), pp. 8087-8106. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1
Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package
Planton, Yann Y., Guilyardi, Eric, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Lee, Jiwoo, Gleckler, Peter J., Bayr, Tobias, McGregor, Shayne, McPhaden, Michael J., Power, Scott, Roehrig, Romain, Vialard, Jerome and Voldoire, Aurore. 2021. "Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (2), pp. E193-E217. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0337.1
Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
Chand, Savin S., Dowdy, Andrew J., Ramsay, Hamish A., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Tory, Kevin J., Power, Scott B., Bell, Samuel S., Lavender, Sally L., Ye, Hua and Kuleshov, Yuri. 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends." WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.602
Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pachauri, Rajendra K., Allen, Myles R., Barros, Vicente R., Broome, John, Cramer, Wolfgang, Christ, Renate, Church, John A., Clarke, Leon, Dahe, Qin, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Dubash, Navroz K., Edenhofer, Ottmar, Elgizouli, Ismail, Field, Christopher B., Forster, Piers, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Hallegatte, Stephane, ..., van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal. 2015. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. IPCC.
Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop
Holbrook, Neil J., Li, Jianping, Collins, Matthew, Di Lorenzo, Emanuele, Jin, Fei-Fei, Knutson, Thomas, Latif, Mojib, Li, Chongyin, Power, Scott B., Huang, Rhonghui and Wu, Guoxiong. 2014. "Decadal climate variability and cross-scale interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95 (8), pp. 155-158. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00201.1
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Collins, Matthew, Arblaster, Julie, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Marotzke, Jochem, Power, Scott B., Rummukainen, Markku and Zhou, Tianjun. 2013. "Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections." Stocker, Thomas F., Qin, Dahe, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Tignor, Melinda M.B., Allen, Simon K., Boschung, Judith, Nauels, Alexander, Xia, Yu, Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M. (ed.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1311-1393
El Nino-Southern oscillation
Holbrook, Neil J., Brown, Jaclyn N., Davidson, Julie, Feng, Ming, Hobday, Alistair J., Lough, Janice M., McGregor, Shayne, Power, Scott B. and Risbey, James S.. 2012. "El Nino-Southern oscillation." Poloczanska, Elvira S., Hobday, Alistair J. and Richardson, Anthony J. (ed.) Marine Climate Change in Australia: Impacts and Adaptation Responses - 2012 REPORT CARD. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 81-112
El Nino – Southern Oscillation
Holbrook, Neil J., Brown, Jaclyn N., Davidson, Julie, Feng, Ming, Hobday, Alistair J., Lough, Janice M., McGregor, Shayne, Power, Scott B. and Risbey, James S.. 2012. "El Nino – Southern Oscillation." Poloczanska, Elvira S., Hobday, Alistair J. and Richardson, Anthony J. (ed.) Marine Climate Change in Australia: Impacts and Adaptation Responses. 2012 Report Card. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 81-112
Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?
Allan, Robert J., Chambers, Don, Drosdowsky, Wasyl, Hendon, Harry, Latif, Mojib, Nicholls, Neville, Smith, Ian, Stone, Roger C. and Tourre, Yves. 2001. "Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?" CLIVAR Exchanges. 6 (3), pp. 18-22.
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia
Anwar, M. R., Rodriguez, D., Liu, D. L., Power, S. and O'Leary, G. J.. 2008. "Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 59 (2), pp. 112-126. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR07061
Climate models and their evaluation
Randall, David A., Wood, Richard A., Bony, Sandrine, Colman, Robert, Fichefet, Thierry, Fyfe, John, Kattsov, Vladimir, Pitman, Andrew, Shukla, Jagadish, Srinivasan, Jayaraman, Stouffer, Ronald J., Sumi, Akimasa and Taylor, K.E.. 2007. "Climate models and their evaluation." Solomon, Susan, Dahe, Qin, Manning, Martin, Marquis, Melinda, Averyt, Kristen, Tignor, Melinda M. B., Miller, Henry LeRoy and Chen, Zhenlin (ed.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 589-662
Making climate model forecasts more useful
Power, S. B., Plummer, N. and Alford, P.. 2007. "Making climate model forecasts more useful." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 58 (10), pp. 945-951. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06196
ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project
Latif, Mojib, Sperber, K., Arblaster, J., Braconnot, P., Chen, D., Colman, A., Cubasch, U., Cooper, C., Delecluse, P., DeWitt, D., Fairhead, L., Flato, G., Hogan, T., Ji, M., Kimoto, M., Kitoh, A., Knutson, T., Le Treut, H., Li, T., ..., Zebiak, S.. 2001. "ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project." Climate Dynamics. 18 (3-4), pp. 255-276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100174