Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions
Article
O'Kane, Terence J., Scaife, Adam A., Kushnir, Yochanan, Brookshaw, Anca, Buontempo, Carlo, Carlin, David, Connell, Richenda K., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Dunstone, Nick, Forster, Kristian, Graca, Antonio, Hobday, Alistair J., Kitsios, Vassili and Power, Scott. 2023. "Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions." Frontiers in Climate. 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
Article Title | Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions |
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ERA Journal ID | 212552 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | O'Kane, Terence J., Scaife, Adam A., Kushnir, Yochanan, Brookshaw, Anca, Buontempo, Carlo, Carlin, David, Connell, Richenda K., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Dunstone, Nick, Forster, Kristian, Graca, Antonio, Hobday, Alistair J., Kitsios, Vassili and Power, Scott |
Journal Title | Frontiers in Climate |
Journal Citation | 5 |
Article Number | 1121626 |
Number of Pages | 15 |
Year | 2023 |
Publisher | Frontiers Research Foundation |
Place of Publication | Switzerland |
ISSN | 2624-9553 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626/full |
Abstract | Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy. |
Keywords | decadal predictions, climate risk, climate forecast application, climate forecast information, operational climate prediction |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370202. Climatology |
Byline Affiliations | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia |
Met Office, United Kingdom | |
Columbia University, United States | |
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom | |
United Nations, United States | |
Willis Towers Watson, Australia | |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain | |
Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Spain | |
Leibniz University Hannover, Germany | |
Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Germany | |
Sogrape, Portugal | |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
Monash University |
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https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z2680/recent-applications-and-potential-of-near-term-interannual-to-decadal-climate-predictions
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