Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models
Article
Article Title | Multiyear variability in the Tasman Sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models |
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ERA Journal ID | 1978 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Chung, Christine T. Y. (Author), Power, Scott B. (Author), Santoso, Agus (Author) and Wang, Guomin (Author) |
Journal Title | Journal of Climate |
Journal Citation | 30 (12), pp. 4413-4427 |
Number of Pages | 15 |
Year | 2017 |
Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
Place of Publication | United States |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
1520-0442 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1 |
Web Address (URL) | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/12/jcli-d-16-0862.1.xml |
Abstract | Naturally occurring multiyear to decadal variability is evident in rainfall, temperature, severe weather, and flood frequency around the globe. It is therefore important to understand the cause of this variability and the extent to which it can be predicted. Here internally generated decadal climate variability and its predictability potential in an ensemble of CMIP5 models are assessed. Global hot spots of subsurface ocean decadal variability are identified, revealing variability in the southern Tasman Sea that is coherent with variability in much of the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere. It is found that subsurface temperature variability in the southern Tasman Sea primarily arises in response to preceding changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. This variability is multiyear to decadal in character and is coherent with surface temperature in parts of the Southern Hemisphere up to several years later. This provides some degree of potential predictability to surface temperature in the southern Tasman Sea and surrounding regions. A few models exhibit significant correlation between subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea and zonally averaged precipitation south of 50°S; however, the multimodel mean does not exhibit any significant correlation between subsurface variability and precipitation. Models that exhibit stronger subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea also have a stronger interdecadal Pacific oscillation signal in the Pacific. |
Keywords | meteorology; atmospheric properties; oceanography; materials science; weather and climate forecasting; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean interactions; climate variability; decadal climate variability; decadal variability; general circulation model; inter-decadal pacific oscillations; subsurface temperature; surface temperatures |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370202. Climatology |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Byline Affiliations | Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
University of New South Wales | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q66x8/multiyear-variability-in-the-tasman-sea-and-impacts-on-southern-hemisphere-climate-in-cmip5-models
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