Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change
Article
Devkota, Anjana, Falster, Georgina M., Gillett, Zoe E., Hobeichi, Sanaa, Holgate, Chiara M., Jin, Chenhui, Mu, Mengyuan, Parker, Tess, Rifai, Sami W., Rome, Kathleen S., Stojanovic, Milica, Vogel, Elisabeth, Abram, Nerilie J., Abramowitz, Gab, Coats, Sloan, Evans, Jason P., Gallant, Ailie J. E., Pitman, Andy J., Power, Scott B., ..., Ukkola, Anna M.. 2024. "Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change." Science Advances. 10 (10). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460
Article Title | Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change |
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ERA Journal ID | 211335 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Devkota, Anjana, Falster, Georgina M., Gillett, Zoe E., Hobeichi, Sanaa, Holgate, Chiara M., Jin, Chenhui, Mu, Mengyuan, Parker, Tess, Rifai, Sami W., Rome, Kathleen S., Stojanovic, Milica, Vogel, Elisabeth, Abram, Nerilie J., Abramowitz, Gab, Coats, Sloan, Evans, Jason P., Gallant, Ailie J. E., Pitman, Andy J., Power, Scott B., Rauniyar, Surendra P., Taschetto, Andréa S. and Ukkola, Anna M. |
Journal Title | Science Advances |
Journal Citation | 10 (10) |
Number of Pages | 22 |
Year | 2024 |
Publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
Place of Publication | United States |
ISSN | 2375-2548 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460 |
Abstract | We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts. |
Keywords | climate change |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 3702. Climate change science |
Byline Affiliations | University of New South Wales |
Australian National University | |
Monash University | |
University of Adelaide | |
University of Vigo, Spain | |
University of Melbourne | |
University of Hawaii, United States | |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
Climate Services International, Australia | |
Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
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