Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal

Article

Shrestha, Uttam Babu, Sharma, Krishna Prasad, Devkota, Anjana, Siwakoti, Mohan and Shrestha, Bharat Babu. 2018. "Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal." Ecological Indicators. 95 (1), pp. 99-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.009
Article Title

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal

ERA Journal ID3231
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsShrestha, Uttam Babu (Author), Sharma, Krishna Prasad (Author), Devkota, Anjana (Author), Siwakoti, Mohan (Author) and Shrestha, Bharat Babu (Author)
Journal TitleEcological Indicators
Journal Citation95 (1), pp. 99-107
Number of Pages9
Year2018
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN1470-160X
1872-7034
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.009
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X18305272
Abstract

The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios are essential for long-term management planning of these species. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H. suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.

Keywordsspecies distribution modelling, BIOMOD, biological invasions, climate suitability, RCP 4.5
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020410406. Natural resource management
410404. Environmental management
410401. Conservation and biodiversity
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Byline AffiliationsInstitute for Agriculture and the Environment
Tribhuvan University, Nepal
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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