Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions

Article


Shrestha, Uttam Babu, Shrestha, Asheshwor Man, Aryal, Suman, Shrestha, Sujata, Gautam, Madhu Sudan and Ojha, Hemant. 2019. "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 154 (3-4), pp. 315-334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02418-5
Article Title

Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions

ERA Journal ID1965
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsShrestha, Uttam Babu (Author), Shrestha, Asheshwor Man (Author), Aryal, Suman (Author), Shrestha, Sujata (Author), Gautam, Madhu Sudan (Author) and Ojha, Hemant (Author)
Journal TitleClimatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Journal Citation154 (3-4), pp. 315-334
Number of Pages20
Year2019
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0165-0009
1573-1480
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02418-5
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02418-5
Abstract

Despite broad scientific consensus on climate change, public views may not always correspond with scientific findings. Understanding public perceptions of climate change is thus crucial to both identifying problems and delivering solutions. Investigations of climate change that integrate instrumental records and people’s perceptions in the Himalayas are scarce and fragmentary compared to other regions of the world. We analyzed nationally representative data (n = 5060) of local peoples’ perception of climate change in Nepal, and assessed annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation, onsets of seasons, and trends of climate extremes, based on gridded climate datasets. We firstly used quantitative and spatial techniques to compare local perceptions and the instrumentally observed trends of climate variables. We then examined the possible association of demographic variables, place attachment, regional differences, and prior understanding of climate change with the accuracy of people’s perceptions. Instrumental evidence showed consistent warming, increasing hot days and nights, and increasing annual precipitation, wet spells, heavy precipitation and decreasing dry spells in Nepal. Our results indicate that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. We suggest that, in future as exposure to changes in weather, particularly extreme events, continues, people may become more likely to detect change which corresponds with observed trends. With some new methodological insights gained through integrating community perceptions with observed climate data, the results of this study provides valuable information to support policies to reduce climate-related risk and enhance climate change adaptation.

Keywordsrisk perception; annual precipitation; climate change adaptation; climate related risks; community perceptions; comprehensive analysis; demographic variables; precipitation change; regional differences; climate change
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020419999. Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified
370202. Climatology
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Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Byline AffiliationsInstitute for Agriculture and the Environment
University of Adelaide
University of Massachusetts, United States
Kathmandu University, Nepal
University of Canberra
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