Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise
Article
Article Title | Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise |
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ERA Journal ID | 1943 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Kleeman, Richard (Author) and Power, Scott B. (Author) |
Journal Title | Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
Journal Citation | 46 (4), pp. 529-540 |
Number of Pages | 12 |
Year | 1994 |
Place of Publication | Sweden |
ISSN | 0280-6495 |
1600-0870 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00014.x |
Web Address (URL) | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00014.x |
Abstract | A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO prediction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic momentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictability limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the absence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric model used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a time scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5°C for the Nino 3 region. |
Keywords | ENSO; atmosphere; ocean |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
Public Notes | Copyright © Munksgaard, 1994. |
Byline Affiliations | Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q6x08/limits-to-predictability-in-a-coupled-ocean-atmosphere-model-due-to-atmospheric-noise
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