Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Article
Article Title | Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
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ERA Journal ID | 36365 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Henley, Benjamin J. (Author), Meehl, Gerald (Author), Power, Scott B. (Author), Folland, Chris K. (Author), King, Andrew D. (Author), Brown, Jaclyn N. (Author), Karoly, David J. (Author), Delage, Francois (Author), Gallant, Ailie J. E. (Author), Freund, Mandy (Author) and Neukom, Raphael (Author) |
Journal Title | Environmental Research Letters |
Journal Citation | 12 (4), pp. 1-12 |
Article Number | 044011 |
Number of Pages | 12 |
Year | 2017 |
Publisher | IOP Publishing |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8 |
Web Address (URL) | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8 |
Abstract | Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumvents assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4-0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system. |
Keywords | meteorology; atmospheric properties; surface water; oceanography; marine drilling rigs and platforms; applied mathematics; materials science; water engineering; air-sea interaction; CMIP5; inter-decadal pacific oscillations; model evaluation; Pacific decadal oscillation; Pacific decadal variabilities; CMIP5; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO; model evaluation; Pacific decadal oscillation; Pacific decadal variability; PDO |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370202. Climatology |
Public Notes | Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. |
Byline Affiliations | University of Melbourne |
National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States | |
Australian Bureau of Meteorology | |
International Centre for Applied Climate Science | |
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia | |
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australia | |
University of Bern, Switzerland | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q66x9/spatial-and-temporal-agreement-in-climate-model-simulations-of-the-interdecadal-pacific-oscillation
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