Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

Article


Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2022. "Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371
Article Title

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation49 (13)
Article Numbere2022GL099371
Number of Pages8
Year2022
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099371
Abstract

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

KeywordsClimate Models; Arctic Amplification
ANZSRC Field of Research 20204101. Climate change impacts and adaptation
Public Notes

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Byline AffiliationsLos Alamos National Laboratory, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
PAR Associates, United States
University of Washington, United States
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, United States
Dalhousie University, Canada
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