Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models
Article
Article Title | Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
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ERA Journal ID | 1874 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K. |
Journal Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
Journal Citation | 49 (13) |
Article Number | e2022GL099371 |
Number of Pages | 8 |
Year | 2022 |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
Place of Publication | United States |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
1944-8007 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
Web Address (URL) | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
Abstract | While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. |
Keywords | Climate Models; Arctic Amplification |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 4101. Climate change impacts and adaptation |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Byline Affiliations | Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom | |
PAR Associates, United States | |
University of Washington, United States | |
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, United States | |
Dalhousie University, Canada |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z01w6/annual-mean-arctic-amplification-1970-2020-observed-and-simulated-by-cmip6-climate-models
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