Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

Article


Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2022. "Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371
Article Title

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation49 (13)
Article Numbere2022GL099371
Number of Pages8
Year2022
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099371
Abstract

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

KeywordsClimate Models; Arctic Amplification
ANZSRC Field of Research 20204101. Climate change impacts and adaptation
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsLos Alamos National Laboratory, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
PAR Associates, United States
University of Washington, United States
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, United States
Dalhousie University, Canada
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z01w6/annual-mean-arctic-amplification-1970-2020-observed-and-simulated-by-cmip6-climate-models

Download files


Published Version
  • 22
    total views
  • 19
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 1
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
Dunstone, Nick J., Smith, Doug M., Atkinson, Chris, Colman, Andrew, Folland, Chris, Hermanson, Leon, Ineson, Sarah, Killick, Rachel, Morice, Colin, Rayner, Nick, Seabrook, Melissa and Scaife, Adam A.. 2024. "Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?" Atmospheric Science Letters. 25 (9). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254
Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris K., Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2024. "Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?" Atmosphere. 15 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050567
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2023. "Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)." Atmosphere. 14 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820
Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century
Folland, Chris K., Boucher, Olivier, Colman, Andrew and Parker, David E.. 2018. "Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century." Science Advances. 4 (6), pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aao5297
Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project
Stone, Daithi A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Folland, Chris, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Perlwitz, Judith, Shiogama, Hideo, Wehner, Michael F., Wolski, Piotr, Cholia, Shreyas, Krishnan, Harinarayan, Murray, Donald, Angelil, Oliver, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dittus, Andrea, Quan, Xiao-Wei and Tadross, Mark. 2019. "Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project." Weather and Climate Extremes. 24, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206
Climate Models - Evaluation
Gates, W. L., Henderson-Sellers, A., Boer, G. J., Folland, C. K., Kitoh, A., McAvaney, B. J., Semazzi, F., Smith, N., Weaver, A. J. and Zeng, Q. C.. 1995. "Climate Models - Evaluation." Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (ed.) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 229-284
Pen portraits of Presidents – Professor Raymond Hide, CBE, ScD, FRS
Folland, Chris K. and Read, Peter L.. 2022. "Pen portraits of Presidents – Professor Raymond Hide, CBE, ScD, FRS." Weather. 77 (3), pp. 103-107. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4105
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V.. 1999. "Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia." Climate Dynamics. 15 (5), pp. 319-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Gergis, Joelle, Karoly, David J., Power, Scott, Kennedy, John and Folland, Chris K.. 2015. "A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Climate Dynamics. 45 (11-12), pp. 3077-3090. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Henley, Benjamin J., Meehl, Gerald, Power, Scott B., Folland, Chris K., King, Andrew D., Brown, Jaclyn N., Karoly, David J., Delage, Francois, Gallant, Ailie J. E., Freund, Mandy and Neukom, Raphael. 2017. "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (4), pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Barcikowska, Monika J., Kapnick, Sarah B., Krishnamurty, Lakshmi, Russo, Simone, Cherchi, Annalisa and Folland, Chris K.. 2020. "Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors." Earth System Dynamics. 11 (1), pp. 161-181. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020
CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D. and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2020. "CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters. 47. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047
Atmospheric circulation. 1. Mean sea level pressure and related modes of variability
Allan, R. and Folland, C. K.. 2018. "Atmospheric circulation. 1. Mean sea level pressure and related modes of variability." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 99 (8), pp. S39-S41. https://doi.org/10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1
Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to palaeoclimate time scales
Linderholm, Hans W. and Folland, Chris K.. 2017. "Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to palaeoclimate time scales." Past Global Changes Magazine. 25 (1), pp. 57-60. https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.1.57
Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14
Knight, Jeff R., Maidens, Anna, Watson, Peter A. G., Andrews, Martin, Belcher, Stephen, Brunet, Gilbert, Fereday, David, Folland, Chris K., Scaife, Adam A. and Slingo, Julia. 2017. "Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14." Environmental Research Letters. 12 (7). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa693c
Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris K., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2010. "Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (8 (L08703)). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042793
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1