Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors

Article


Barcikowska, Monika J., Kapnick, Sarah B., Krishnamurty, Lakshmi, Russo, Simone, Cherchi, Annalisa and Folland, Chris K.. 2020. "Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors." Earth System Dynamics. 11 (1), pp. 161-181. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020
Article Title

Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate:
contribution of teleconnections and local factors

ERA Journal ID210387
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsBarcikowska, Monika J. (Author), Kapnick, Sarah B. (Author), Krishnamurty, Lakshmi (Author), Russo, Simone (Author), Cherchi, Annalisa (Author) and Folland, Chris K. (Author)
Journal TitleEarth System Dynamics
Journal Citation11 (1), pp. 161-181
Number of Pages21
Year2020
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN2190-4979
2190-4987
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020
Abstract

This study analyzes future climate for the Mediterranean region projected with the high-resolution coupled CM2.5 model, which incorporates a new and improved land model (LM3). The simulated climate changes suggest pronounced warming and drying over most of the region. However, the changes are distinctly smaller than those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In addition, the changes over much of southeast and central Europe indicate very modest warming compared to the CMIP5 projections and also a tendency toward wetter conditions. These differences indicate a possible role of factors such as land surface-atmospheric interactions in these regions. Our analysis also highlights the importance of correctly projecting the magnitude of changes in the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, which has the capacity to partly offset anthropogenic warming and drying over the western and central Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the projections suggest a decreasing influence of local atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections in maintaining the regional temperature and precipitation balance, in particular over arid regions like the eastern and southern Mediterranean, which show a local maximum of warming and drying. The intensification of the heat low in these regions rather suggests an increasing influence of warming land surface on the local surface atmospheric circulation and progressing desertification.

Keywordsatmospheric pressure; climate change; drying; surface measurement
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
Byline AffiliationsEnvironmental Defense Fund, United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
Princeton University, United States
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Italy
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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