CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols

Article


Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D. and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2020. "CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters. 47. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047
Article Title

CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChylek, Petr (Author), Folland, Chris (Author), Klett, James D. (Author) and Dubey, Manvendra K. (Author)
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation47
Number of Pages9
Year2020
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087047
Abstract

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol‐cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

Keywordsvolcanic aerosols, climate models
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
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Byline AffiliationsLos Alamos National Laboratory, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
PAR Associates, United States
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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