Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?

Article

Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris K., Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2024. "Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?" Atmosphere. 15 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050567

Article Title	Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?
ERA Journal ID	210170
Article Category	Article
Authors	Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris K., Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.
Journal Title	Atmosphere
Journal Citation	15 (5)
Article Number	567
Number of Pages	11
Year	2024
Publisher	MDPI AG
Place of Publication	Switzerland
ISSN	2073-4433
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)	https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050567
Web Address (URL)	https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/5/567
Abstract	An accurate simulation and projection of future warming are needed for a proper policy response to expected climate change. We examine the simulations of the mean global and Arctic surface air temperatures by the CMIP6 (Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models. Most models overestimate the observed mean global warming. Only seven out of 19 models considered simulate global warming that is within ±15% of the observed warming between the average of the 2014–2023 and 1961–1990 reference period. Ten models overestimate global warming by more than 15% and only one of the models underestimates it by more than 15%. Arctic warming is simulated by the CMIP6 climate models much better than the mean global warming. The reason is an equal spread of over and underestimates of Arctic warming by the models, while most of the models overestimate the mean global warming. Eight models are within ±15% of the observed Arctic warming. Only three models are accurate within ±15% for both mean global and Arctic temperature simulations. © 2024 by the authors.
Keywords	Arctic; selection of models; climate CMIP6 models; global warming
Contains Sensitive Content	Does not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020	370299. Climate change science not elsewhere classified
Byline Affiliations	Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States
	University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
	Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
	University of Gothenburg, Sweden
	PAR Associates, United States
	University of Washington, United States
	Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, United States
	Dalhousie University, Canada

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