Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?

Article

Dunstone, Nick J., Smith, Doug M., Atkinson, Chris, Colman, Andrew, Folland, Chris, Hermanson, Leon, Ineson, Sarah, Killick, Rachel, Morice, Colin, Rayner, Nick, Seabrook, Melissa and Scaife, Adam A.. 2024. "Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?" Atmospheric Science Letters. 25 (9). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254
Article Title

Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?

ERA Journal ID1957
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsDunstone, Nick J., Smith, Doug M., Atkinson, Chris, Colman, Andrew, Folland, Chris, Hermanson, Leon, Ineson, Sarah, Killick, Rachel, Morice, Colin, Rayner, Nick, Seabrook, Melissa and Scaife, Adam A.
Journal TitleAtmospheric Science Letters
Journal Citation25 (9)
Article Numbere1254
Number of Pages10
Year2024
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN1530-261X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254
Web Address (URL)https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1254
AbstractGlobal mean near surface temperature change is the key metric by which our warming climate is monitored and for which international climate policy is set. At the end of each year the Met Office issues a global mean temperature forecast for the coming year. Following on from the new record in 2023, we predict that 2024 will likely (76% chance) be a new record year with a 1-in-3 chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial. Whilst a one-year temporary exceedance of 1.5°C would not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement target, our forecast highlights how close we are now to this. Our 2024 forecast is primarily driven by the strong warming trend of +0.2°C/decade (1981–2023) and secondly by the lagged warming effect of a strong tropical Pacific El Niño event. We highlight that 2023 itself was significantly warmer than the Met Office DePreSys3 forecast, with much of this additional observed warming coming from the southern hemisphere, the cause of which requires further understanding. © 2024 Crown copyright. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland.
Keywordsatmospheric and climate dynamics; change & impacts; global; scale; weather and climate prediction; weather/climate extremes
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 20203702. Climate change science
Byline AffiliationsMet Office, United Kingdom
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
University of Gothenburg, Sweden
University of Exeter, United Kingdom
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