Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project

Article


Stone, Daithi A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Folland, Chris, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Perlwitz, Judith, Shiogama, Hideo, Wehner, Michael F., Wolski, Piotr, Cholia, Shreyas, Krishnan, Harinarayan, Murray, Donald, Angelil, Oliver, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dittus, Andrea, Quan, Xiao-Wei and Tadross, Mark. 2019. "Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project." Weather and Climate Extremes. 24, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206
Article Title

Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project

ERA Journal ID211519
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsStone, Daithi A. (Author), Christidis, Nikolaos (Author), Folland, Chris (Author), Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah (Author), Perlwitz, Judith (Author), Shiogama, Hideo (Author), Wehner, Michael F. (Author), Wolski, Piotr (Author), Cholia, Shreyas (Author), Krishnan, Harinarayan (Author), Murray, Donald (Author), Angelil, Oliver (Author), Beyerle, Urs (Author), Ciavarella, Andrew (Author), Dittus, Andrea (Author), Quan, Xiao-Wei (Author) and Tadross, Mark (Author)
Journal TitleWeather and Climate Extremes
Journal Citation24, pp. 1-10
Article Number100206
Number of Pages10
Year2019
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN2212-0947
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300027
Abstract

There is a growing research interest in understanding extreme weather in the context of anthropogenic climate change, posing a requirement for new tailored climate data products. Here we introduce the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project (C20C + D&A), an international collaboration generating a product specifically intended for diagnosing causes of changes in extreme weather and for understanding uncertainties in that diagnosis. The project runs multiple dynamical models of the atmosphere-land system under observed historical conditions as well as under naturalised versions of those observed conditions, with the latter representing how the climate system might have evolved in the absence of anthropogenic interference. Each model generates large ensembles of simulations with different initial conditions for each historical scenario, providing a large sample size for understanding interannual variability, long-term trends, and the anthropogenic role in rare types of weather. This paper describes the C20C + D&A project design, implementation, strengths, and limitations, and also discusses various activities such as this special issue of Weather and Climate Extremes dedicated to 'First results of the C20C + Detection and Attribution project'.

KeywordsDetection and attribution, Event attribution, Climate models
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
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Byline AffiliationsLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States
Met Office, United Kingdom
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
University of New South Wales
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland
University of Melbourne
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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