Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

Article

Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2023. "Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)." Atmosphere. 14 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820
Article Title

Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

ERA Journal ID210170
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.
Journal TitleAtmosphere
Journal Citation14 (5)
Article Number820
Number of Pages8
Year2023
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2073-4433
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820
Web Address (URL)https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/820
AbstractWe compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = −0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful.
KeywordsArctic amplification; Arctic climate; climate models; CESM1 and CESM2
ANZSRC Field of Research 20204101. Climate change impacts and adaptation
Byline AffiliationsLos Alamos National Laboratory, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
University of Gothenburg, Sweden
PAR Associates, United States
Dalhousie University, Canada
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