Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)
Article
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K.. 2023. "Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)." Atmosphere. 14 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820
| Article Title | Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 210170 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K. |
| Journal Title | Atmosphere |
| Journal Citation | 14 (5) |
| Article Number | 820 |
| Number of Pages | 8 |
| Year | 2023 |
| Publisher | MDPI AG |
| Place of Publication | Switzerland |
| ISSN | 2073-4433 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/820 |
| Abstract | We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = −0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful. |
| Keywords | Arctic amplification; Arctic climate; climate models; CESM1 and CESM2 |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 4101. Climate change impacts and adaptation |
| Byline Affiliations | Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States |
| Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
| University of East Anglia, United Kingdom | |
| University of Gothenburg, Sweden | |
| PAR Associates, United States | |
| Dalhousie University, Canada |
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https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z2583/arctic-amplification-in-the-community-earth-system-models-cesm1-and-cesm2
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