Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Article


Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Article Title

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

ERA Journal ID1962
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsVautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Scott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal
Journal TitleClimate Dynamics
Journal Citation52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210
Number of Pages24
YearJan 2019
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN0930-7575
1432-0894
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Abstract

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Keywordsair temperature; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric modeling; computer simulation; extreme event; precipitation assessment; storm surge
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370101. Adverse weather events
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsParis-Saclay University, France
Met Office, United Kingdom
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain
Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark
University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
Helmholtz Centre Hereon, Germany
University of Reading, United Kingdom
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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Uotila, Petteri, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah. 2014. "Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis." Journal of Climate. 27 (20), pp. 7807-7829. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Perkins, Sarah, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Sadler, Katherine. 2014. "More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century." Journal of Climate. 27 (15), pp. 5851-5871. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1
What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2014. "What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?" OCEANS'10 IEEE Sydney. Sydney, Australia 24 - 27 May 2010 Australia. https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSSYD.2010.5603876
Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?
Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter and Weller, Weller. 2014. "Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?" Journal of Climate. 27 (9), pp. 3145-3168. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1
Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Min, Seung-Ki and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 26 (21), pp. 8341-8356. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1
Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability
Li, Chung-Leong, Bye, John A.T., Gallagher, Stephen J. and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability." International Journal of Climatology. 33 (10), pp. 2309-2317. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3587
The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia
Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter, Purich, Ariaan and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia." Journal of Climate. 26 (19), pp. 7555-7569. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00781.1
Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean
Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Rotstayn, Leon and England, Matthew H.. 2013. "Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean." Scientific Reports. 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02245
The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2013. "The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (11), pp. 2761-2767. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50587
Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming
Cai, Wenju, Zheng, Xiao-Tong, Weller, Evan, Collins, Mat, Cowan, Tim, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Yu, Weidong and Yamagata, Toshio. 2013. "Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming." Nature Geoscience. 6 (12), pp. 999-1007. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2009
Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation." Journal of Climate. 26 (1), pp. 189-205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00035.1
Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?" Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (6), pp. 1200-1205. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50208
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Collins, Matthew, Arblaster, Julie, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Marotzke, Jochem, Power, Scott B., Rummukainen, Markku and Zhou, Tianjun. 2013. "Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections." Stocker, Thomas F., Qin, Dahe, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Tignor, Melinda M.B., Allen, Simon K., Boschung, Judith, Nauels, Alexander, Xia, Yu, Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M. (ed.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1311-1393
Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242
Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1
An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2012. "An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate." Journal of Climate. 25 (18), pp. 6318-6329. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00501.1
Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Thatcher, Marcus. 2012. "Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion." Scientific Reports. 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00702
Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2011. "The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047268
Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2011. "Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall." Journal of Climate. 24 (15), pp. 3910-3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1
Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter and Cowan, Tim. 2011. "Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia." Journal of Climate. 24 (23), pp. 6035-6053. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4149.1
Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Borlace, S. and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?" Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047943
Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 24 (6), pp. 1688-1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3744.1
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin
Yu, Jingjie, Fu, Guobin, Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin." Water International. 35 (3), pp. 313-323. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2010.484907
Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Sullivan, Arnold. 2010. "Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact." Journal of Climate. 23 (18), pp. 4944-4955. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1
Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Godfrey, Stuart and Wijffels, Susan. 2010. "Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean." Journal of Climate. 23 (1), pp. 197-206. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3081.1
Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Braganza, Karl, Jones, David and Risbey, James. 2010. "Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042254
On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Arblaster, J. M. and Wijffels, S.. 2010. "On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044399
A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields
Bye, John A.T., Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields ." Hurricanes and Climate Change. United States. Springer. pp. 101-120
How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?
Sullivan, Arnold, Cai, W. and Cowan, T. D.. 2009. "How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?" 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin
Cowan, T. D. and Cai, Wenju. 2009. "Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037982
Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2009. "Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 22 (19), pp. 5046-5071. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2694.1
Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040163
Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008
Cai, W., Pan, A., Roemmich, D., Cowan, T. and Guo, X.. 2009. "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037038
Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Sullivan, A.. 2009. "Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037604
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Raupach, M.. 2009. "Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039902
Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Briggs, Peter and Raupach, Michael. 2009. "Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040334
La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037885
Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?" Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034174
Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033390
Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033727
The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes." Water: Official journal of the Australian Water and Wastewater Association. 35 (5), pp. 95-97.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing." Journal of Climate. 20 (4), pp. 681-693. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4028.1
Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031706
SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2006. "SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?" Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028037
Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation
Cai, W., Bi, D., Church, J., Cowan, T., Dix, M. and Rotstayn, L.. 2006. "Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027513
Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region
Simmonds, Ian, Rafter, Anthony, Cowan, Timothy, Watkins, Andrew B. and Keay, Kevin. 2005. "Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region." Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. 117 (1), pp. 149-177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-004-5939-6