Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models
Article
Article Title | Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models |
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ERA Journal ID | 200244 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah |
Journal Title | Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society |
Journal Citation | 27 (6), pp. 134-139 |
Number of Pages | 6 |
Year | 2014 |
Publisher | Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society |
Place of Publication | Australia |
ISSN | 1035-6576 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.amos.org.au/activities/publications/bamos/ |
Abstract | Australia is a continent of climatic extremes, experiencing devastating floods, decadal-long droughts and crippling heat waves. Since the late twentieth century, summer heat waves across Australia have been getting progressively longer, hotter and more frequent, with human-induced climate change a major player in the increase. This study utilises global climate models to project how the total number of summer heat waves will change and how hot, on average, they may become (their magnitude) by the end of the twenty-first century. While the models perform well at capturing the heat wave magnitude across Australia, they struggle to simulate the regional variations in the total number of events. The models project a doubling of heat wave events by 2100 across southern Australia, and an almost tripling in the northern-central regions, under a high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario. In the regions where the heat waves are hottest, such as Victoria, South Australia, and south-west Western Australia, the models project an increase of almost 2°C in magnitude by the end of the century. Furthermore, the intensity of these southern Australian heat waves is projected to rise faster than the long-term increase in the background temperature, implying the magnitude of these events may become more extreme in the future. |
Keywords | heat wave ; climatic extremes |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
370101. Adverse weather events | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia |
University of Melbourne | |
University of New South Wales |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z6713/future-projections-of-australian-heat-wave-number-and-intensity-based-on-cmip5-models
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