Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

Article

Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Cowan, Tim and Hegerl, Gabriele C.. 2019. "Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave." Climate Dynamics. 53 (3-4), pp. 2229-2247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
Article Title

Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

ERA Journal ID1962
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsHarrington, Luke J. (Author), Otto, Friederike E. L. (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author) and Hegerl, Gabriele C. (Author)
Journal TitleClimate Dynamics
Journal Citation53 (3-4), pp. 2229-2247
Number of Pages19
Year2019
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationGermany
ISSN0930-7575
1432-0894
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
Abstract

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event.

Keywordscirculation analogues; heatwaves; extreme weather events; signal-to-noise ratios; climate change
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Oxford, United Kingdom
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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