Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

Article

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2022. "Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
Article Title

Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

ERA Journal ID201487
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCowan, Tim (Author), Wheeler, Matthew C. (Author), de Burgh-Day, Catherine (Author), Nguyen, Hanh (Author) and Cobon, David (Author)
Journal TitleScientific Reports
Journal Citation12 (1), pp. 1-13
Article Number5907
Number of Pages13
Year2022
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN2045-2322
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
Web Address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-09666-z
Abstract

The compound extreme weather event that impacted northern Queensland in February 2019 featured record-breaking rainfall, persistent high wind gusts and relatively cold day-time temperatures. This caused livestock losses numbering around 500,000 in the northwest Queensland Gulf region. In this study, we examine the livestock chill conditions associated with this week-long compound weather event and its potential for prediction from eleven world-leading sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast systems. The livestock chill index combines daily rainfall, wind and surface temperature data. Averaged over the event week, the potential heat loss of livestock was in the moderate to high category, with severe conditions on the day of peak rainfall (5 February). Using calibrated forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's S2S forecast system, ACCESS-S1, a 1-week lead prediction showed a 20–30% probability of extreme livestock chill conditions over the northwest Queensland Gulf region, however the highest probabilities were located to the west of where the greatest livestock impacts were observed. Of the remaining ten S2S systems, around half predicted a more than 20% chance of extreme conditions, more than twice the climatological probability. It appears that the prediction accuracy arose from the skilful forecasts of extreme rainfall, as opposed to cold day-time temperature and strong wind forecasts. Despite a clear association between the observed extreme weather conditions and an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event stalling in the western Pacific, the majority of 1-week lead S2S forecasts showed little indication of a slow-down in the MJO. As the livestock chill index was developed for southern Australian sheep, it may not be the best metric to represent the effects of exposure on tropical cattle breeds. Hence, this study draws attention to the need for tailored diagnostics that better represent the cold effects of summer tropical cyclones and tropical depressions on northern Australian livestock.

KeywordsMadden–Julian Oscillation; Australian rainfall; Seasonal prediction; Impacts; Weather
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370101. Adverse weather events
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
370108. Meteorology
Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Attard, Steve, Cobon, David and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning." European Journal of Agronomy. 104, pp. 37-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.005
Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study
Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kouadio, L., Cashen, M., Anwar, M. and Cobon, D.. 2018. Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study. Nnew South Wales, Australia. NSW Department of Primary Industries.
History of drought management in Australia
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, McRae, David and Kouadio, Louis. 2017. "History of drought management in Australia." Eslamien, Saied and Eslamien, Faezeh (ed.) Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity: Management of Drought and Water Scarcity. United States. CRC Press. pp. 423-448
Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties
Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2018. "Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties." Scientific Reports. 8 (1), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31842-3
Development of the Australian Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, C., Cobon, D., Svoboda, M., Swigart, J. and Guillory, L.. 2019. "Development of the Australian Drought Monitor." AMOS-ICTMO 2019 Conference. Darwin, Australia 11 - 15 Jun 2019 Australia.
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study
Christiansen, Bo, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Timothy, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Orth, Rene, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Vautard, Robert, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal. 2018. "Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study." Journal of Climate. 31 (9), pp. 3387-3410. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil
Ghahramani, Afshin, Berndt, Alexandre, Cobon, David, Banhazi, Thomas and Ji, Boyu. 2017. "Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil." Parapinski, Marina, Carbonare, Maryon Strack Dalle and Schmidt, Patrick (ed.) 54th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Society of Animal Science: A new View of Animal Science: Challenges and Perspectives. Foz do Iguacu, Brasil 24 - 28 Jun 2017 Foz do Iguacu, Brazil.
Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.
The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Schurer, Andrew and Cowan, Tim. 2018. "The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences." WIREs Climate Change. 9 (4). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.522
Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change
Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea
Cobon, David H., Ewai, Maureen, Inape, Kasis and Bourke, R. Michael. 2016. "Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea." Agricultural Systems. 145, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012
Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the great plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl
Cowan, Tim, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Colfescu, Ioana, Bollasina, Massimo, Purich, Ariaan and Boschat, Ghyslaine. 2017. "Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the great plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl." Journal of Climate. 30 (7), pp. 2437-2461. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes
Purich, Ariaan, Cai, Wenju, England, Matthew H. and Cowan, Tim. 2016. "Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes." Nature Communications. 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409
Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., White, C. J., Alexander, L. V., Argueso, D., Boschat, G., Cowan, T., Evans, J. P., Ekstrom, M., Oliver, E. C. J., Phatak, A. and Purich, A.. 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 139 (1), pp. 101-114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0
Long-term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: Detecting drivers of change
Gao, Zhaoliang, Zhang, Lu, Zhang, Xiaoping, Cheng, Lei, Potter, Nick, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2016. "Long-term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: Detecting drivers of change." Hydrological Processes. 30 (9), pp. 1315-1329. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10704
On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave - SST associations
Boschat, Ghyslaine, Simmonds, Ian, Purich, Purich, Cowan, Tim and Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes. 2016. "On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave - SST associations." Scientific Reports. 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29599
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
Groundwater storage trends in the Loess Plateau of China estimated from streamflow records
Gao, Zhaoliang, Zhang, Lu, Cheng, Lei, Zhang, Xiaoping, Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju and Brutsaert, Wilfried. 2015. "Groundwater storage trends in the Loess Plateau of China estimated from streamflow records." Journal of Hydrology. 530, pp. 281-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.063
The Response of the Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases
Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, Ng, Benjamin and England, Matthew. 2015. "The Response of the Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases ." Journal of Climate. 28 (7), pp. 2564-2583. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00661.1
Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia
Boschat, Ghyslaine, Pezza, Alexandre, Simmonds, Ian, Perkins, Sarah, Cowan, Tim and Purich, Ariaan. 2015. "Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia." Climate Dynamics. 44 (7-8), pp. 1823-1840. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2214-5
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models
Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah. 2014. "Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models." Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 27 (6), pp. 134-139.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Uotila, Petteri, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah. 2014. "Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis." Journal of Climate. 27 (20), pp. 7807-7829. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Perkins, Sarah, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Sadler, Katherine. 2014. "More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century." Journal of Climate. 27 (15), pp. 5851-5871. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1
What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2014. "What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?" OCEANS'10 IEEE Sydney. Sydney, Australia 24 - 27 May 2010 Australia. https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSSYD.2010.5603876
Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?
Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter and Weller, Weller. 2014. "Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?" Journal of Climate. 27 (9), pp. 3145-3168. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1
Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Min, Seung-Ki and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 26 (21), pp. 8341-8356. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1
Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability
Li, Chung-Leong, Bye, John A.T., Gallagher, Stephen J. and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability." International Journal of Climatology. 33 (10), pp. 2309-2317. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3587
The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia
Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter, Purich, Ariaan and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia." Journal of Climate. 26 (19), pp. 7555-7569. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00781.1
Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean
Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Rotstayn, Leon and England, Matthew H.. 2013. "Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean." Scientific Reports. 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02245
The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2013. "The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (11), pp. 2761-2767. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50587
Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming
Cai, Wenju, Zheng, Xiao-Tong, Weller, Evan, Collins, Mat, Cowan, Tim, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Yu, Weidong and Yamagata, Toshio. 2013. "Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming." Nature Geoscience. 6 (12), pp. 999-1007. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2009
Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation." Journal of Climate. 26 (1), pp. 189-205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00035.1
Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?" Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (6), pp. 1200-1205. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50208
Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau
Childress, M.J., Scalzo, R.A., Sim, S.A., Tucker, B.E., Yuan, F., Schmidt, B.P., Cenko, S.B., Silverman, J.M., Contreras, C., Hsiao, E.Y., Phillips, M., Morrell, N., Jha, S.W., McCully, C., Filippenko, A.V., Anderson, J.P., Benetti, S., Bufano, F., de Jaeger, T., ..., Zhou, G.. 2013. "Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau." The Astrophysical Journal: an international review of astronomy and astronomical physics. 770 (1), pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stt813
Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242
Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1
An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2012. "An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate." Journal of Climate. 25 (18), pp. 6318-6329. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00501.1
Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Thatcher, Marcus. 2012. "Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion." Scientific Reports. 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00702
Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2011. "The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047268
Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2011. "Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall." Journal of Climate. 24 (15), pp. 3910-3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1
Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter and Cowan, Tim. 2011. "Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia." Journal of Climate. 24 (23), pp. 6035-6053. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4149.1
Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Borlace, S. and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?" Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047943
Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 24 (6), pp. 1688-1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3744.1
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review." Jubb, Imogen, Holper, Paul and Cai, Wenju (ed.) Managing Climate Change. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 65-72
Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin
Yu, Jingjie, Fu, Guobin, Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin." Water International. 35 (3), pp. 313-323. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2010.484907
Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Sullivan, Arnold. 2010. "Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact." Journal of Climate. 23 (18), pp. 4944-4955. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1
Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Godfrey, Stuart and Wijffels, Susan. 2010. "Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean." Journal of Climate. 23 (1), pp. 197-206. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3081.1
Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Braganza, Karl, Jones, David and Risbey, James. 2010. "Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042254
On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Arblaster, J. M. and Wijffels, S.. 2010. "On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044399
A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields
Bye, John A.T., Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields ." Hurricanes and Climate Change. United States. Springer. pp. 101-120
How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?
Sullivan, Arnold, Cai, W. and Cowan, T. D.. 2009. "How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?" 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin
Cowan, T. D. and Cai, Wenju. 2009. "Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037982
Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2009. "Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 22 (19), pp. 5046-5071. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2694.1
Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040163
Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008
Cai, W., Pan, A., Roemmich, D., Cowan, T. and Guo, X.. 2009. "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037038
Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Sullivan, A.. 2009. "Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037604
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Raupach, M.. 2009. "Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039902
Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Briggs, Peter and Raupach, Michael. 2009. "Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040334
La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037885
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?" Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034174
Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033390
Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033727
The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes." Water: Official journal of the Australian Water and Wastewater Association. 35 (5), pp. 95-97.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.
Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing." Journal of Climate. 20 (4), pp. 681-693. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4028.1
Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031706
Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Sediment Load for the Nogoa Catchment of the Fitzroy Basin." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment
Cobon, D. H. and Toombs, N. R.. 2007. "Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Cooper Creek Catchment." 17th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07). Christchurch, New Zealand 10 - 13 Dec 2007 New Zealand. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2006. "SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?" Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028037
Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation
Cai, W., Bi, D., Church, J., Cowan, T., Dix, M. and Rotstayn, L.. 2006. "Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027513
Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region
Simmonds, Ian, Rafter, Anthony, Cowan, Timothy, Watkins, Andrew B. and Keay, Kevin. 2005. "Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region." Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. 117 (1), pp. 149-177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-004-5939-6
Sonoluminescence quenching by organic acids in aqueous solution: pH and frequency effects
Price, Gareth J. P, Ashokkumar, Muthupandian, Cowan, Timothy D. and Grieser, Franz. 2002. "Sonoluminescence quenching by organic acids in aqueous solution: pH and frequency effects." Chemical Communications. 16 (16), p. 1740–1741. https://doi.org/10.1039/B201795D