Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

Article

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2022. "Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
Article Title

Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

ERA Journal ID201487
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCowan, Tim (Author), Wheeler, Matthew C. (Author), de Burgh-Day, Catherine (Author), Nguyen, Hanh (Author) and Cobon, David (Author)
Journal TitleScientific Reports
Journal Citation12 (1), pp. 1-13
Article Number5907
Number of Pages13
Year2022
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN2045-2322
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z
Web Address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-09666-z
Abstract

The compound extreme weather event that impacted northern Queensland in February 2019 featured record-breaking rainfall, persistent high wind gusts and relatively cold day-time temperatures. This caused livestock losses numbering around 500,000 in the northwest Queensland Gulf region. In this study, we examine the livestock chill conditions associated with this week-long compound weather event and its potential for prediction from eleven world-leading sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast systems. The livestock chill index combines daily rainfall, wind and surface temperature data. Averaged over the event week, the potential heat loss of livestock was in the moderate to high category, with severe conditions on the day of peak rainfall (5 February). Using calibrated forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's S2S forecast system, ACCESS-S1, a 1-week lead prediction showed a 20–30% probability of extreme livestock chill conditions over the northwest Queensland Gulf region, however the highest probabilities were located to the west of where the greatest livestock impacts were observed. Of the remaining ten S2S systems, around half predicted a more than 20% chance of extreme conditions, more than twice the climatological probability. It appears that the prediction accuracy arose from the skilful forecasts of extreme rainfall, as opposed to cold day-time temperature and strong wind forecasts. Despite a clear association between the observed extreme weather conditions and an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event stalling in the western Pacific, the majority of 1-week lead S2S forecasts showed little indication of a slow-down in the MJO. As the livestock chill index was developed for southern Australian sheep, it may not be the best metric to represent the effects of exposure on tropical cattle breeds. Hence, this study draws attention to the need for tailored diagnostics that better represent the cold effects of summer tropical cyclones and tropical depressions on northern Australian livestock.

KeywordsMadden–Julian Oscillation; Australian rainfall; Seasonal prediction; Impacts; Weather
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370101. Adverse weather events
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
370108. Meteorology
Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau
Childress, M.J., Scalzo, R.A., Sim, S.A., Tucker, B.E., Yuan, F., Schmidt, B.P., Cenko, S.B., Silverman, J.M., Contreras, C., Hsiao, E.Y., Phillips, M., Morrell, N., Jha, S.W., McCully, C., Filippenko, A.V., Anderson, J.P., Benetti, S., Bufano, F., de Jaeger, T., ..., Zhou, G.. 2013. "Spectroscopic observations of sn 2012fr: A luminous, normal type Ia supernova with early high-velocity features and a late velocity plateau." The Astrophysical Journal: an international review of astronomy and astronomical physics. 770 (1), pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stt813
Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242
Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1
Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.