Livestock chill conditions associated with the February 2019 Queensland floods
Presentation
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2021. "Livestock chill conditions associated with the February 2019 Queensland floods." 2021 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Research and Development Workshop. 08 - 11 Nov 2021
| Paper/Presentation Title | Livestock chill conditions associated with the February 2019 Queensland floods |
|---|---|
| Presentation Type | Presentation |
| Authors | Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David |
| Number of Pages | 19 |
| Year | 2021 |
| Web Address (URL) of Paper | http://www.bom.gov.au/research/workshop/2021/talks/D3S2_7_TimCowan.pdf |
| Web Address (URL) of Conference Proceedings | http://www.bom.gov.au/research/workshop/2021/program.shtml |
| Conference/Event | 2021 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Research and Development Workshop |
| Event Details | 2021 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Research and Development Workshop Delivery Online Event Date 08 to end of 11 Nov 2021 |
| Abstract | The compound extreme weather event that impacted northern Queensland in February 2019 featured record-breaking rainfall, persistent high wind gusts and relatively low day-time temperatures. The event caused more than half million livestock deaths across six northwest Queensland Gulf country shires. In this talk, I examine the livestock chill conditions associated with this week-long weather event and its potential for prediction from eleven world-leading sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast systems. The livestock chill index, used for sheep grazier warnings, combines daily rainfall, wind and surface temperature data. Averaged over the event week, the potential heat loss of livestock fell in the moderate to high category, with severe conditions on the day of peak rainfall on 5 February. Using calibrated forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's S2S forecast system, ACCESS-S1, a one-week lead prediction showed a 20 to 30% probability of extreme livestock chill conditions over the northwest Queensland Gulf region, however the highest probabilities were located to the west of where the greatest livestock impacts were observed. Of the other ten S2S systems, around half suggested greater than a 20% chance of extreme conditions, more than twice the climatological probability. Despite a clear association between the observed extreme weather conditions and an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event stalling in the western Pacific (Cowan et al. 2019), the majority of one week lead S2S forecasts did not predict an extended slow-down in the MJO. In this talk, I will discuss the need for tailored diagnostics that better represent the cold effects of summer tropical cyclones and quasi-stationary lows on northern Australian livestock, particularly cattle. |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300302. Animal management |
| 370101. Adverse weather events | |
| 370108. Meteorology | |
| Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
| Byline Affiliations | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences |
| Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
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