Dr Timothy Cowan

Dr Timothy Cowan
NameDr Timothy Cowan
Email Addresstimothy.cowan@unisq.edu.au
Job TitleSenior Research Fellow (Climate Prediction)
QualificationsBSc(Hons) Melb, PhD UNSW
DepartmentCentre for Applied Climate Sciences (Research)
ORCIDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8376-4879
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Biography

Tim is a Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Applied Climate Sciences at the University of Southern Queensland and is embedded within the Seasonal Climate Processes team at the Bureau of Meteorology. Prior to the Bureau, Tim spent a decade at CSIRO, researching Indo-Pacific variability and its influence on Australia's climate, and then completed a post-doc at the University of Edinburgh focusing on early 20th century climate extremes.

Tim's current research is predominantly funded by Meat and Livestock Australia Donor Company through the Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP), and is aimed at developing prototype forecast products in ACCESS-S to help the northern cattle grazing industry better manage drought and climate risks. Tim's main work has centred on testing the skill of hindcasts and forecasts in ACCESS-S1 for the Northern Rainfall Onset product, and developing the Bureau's multi-week rainfall burst product. Currently, he is developing an Australia-wide cattle heat load forecast.

Employment

PositionOrganisationFromTo
Research Projects OfficerCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere20052015
Postdoctoral Research AssociateSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh20152018
Research FellowCentre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland20182020

Expertise

Monsoon, El Nino Southern Oscillation, sub-seasonal prediction, Madden-Julian Oscillation, heat waves, drought

Fields of Research

  • 370101. Adverse weather events
  • 370103. Atmospheric aerosols
  • 370105. Atmospheric dynamics
  • 370108. Meteorology
  • 370201. Climate change processes
  • 370202. Climatology

Professional Membership

Professional MembershipYear
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
BSc(Hons)
Melb
2004
PhD
UNSW
2015

Current Supervisions

Research TitleSupervisor TypeLevel of StudyCommenced
Improved evapotranspiration estimates in grazed woodlands using flux tower, satellite remote sensing, machine learning and modelling approaches.Principal SupervisorDoctoral2021
 An analysis of the agricultural, environmental, social and climatic benefits available via a broader adoption of Cannabis in Australia including hypothetical modelling for legalisation, licensing, and distribution. Associate SupervisorDoctoral2019

Completed Supervisions

Research TitleSupervisor TypeLevel of StudyCompleted
Interannual and decadal variability of Australian monsoon rainfall and variability in the Pacific OceanPrincipal SupervisorDoctoral2023
Project titleDetailsYear
Filling fundamental gaps in pasture prediction in drought-impacted savanna woodlandsThis is a DCAP3 funded project that aims to fill gaps in knowledge of competition for water between trees and grasses to enable graziers to better manage areas with woody vegetation while adapting to Queensland’s drought prone and highly variable climate. The project will contribute to improved estimates of evapotranspiration, evaporative stress index, flash drought, green date, green cover, pasture biomass and long-term carrying capacity in woody vegetation sites, with field measured data used to ground truth modelling and satellite derived datasets by 31 December 2025. 2022
DateNameAwarding organisationUnderpinning research
2022Bureau Excellence Award as part of the Forewarned is Forearmed project team Bureau of Meteorology
2021 Ranked #637 in 1000 most influential climate scientists in the world Reuters
2016Uwe Radok award for the best Australian PhD thesis in meteorology, oceanography, glaciology or climatology Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
2013University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre best student paper University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre
2007Look Out!!! CSIRO Strategic Excellence Award CSIRO
2007CSIRO Executive Study award CSIRO
2022Keynote talk at AMOS Annual Conference, Adelaide, 1 December 2022 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
2017Invited talk at AMOS Annual Conference, Canberra, 8 February 2017 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
2013Invited talk at Australian Property Institute Rural Queensland Conference, Toowoomba, 22-23 March 2013 Australian Property Institute
2012Invited talk at The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) 6th annual workshop: Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Weather and Climate, Melbourne, 12-15 November 2012Bureau of Meteorology
2011Invited talk at LTO/SCSIO, Guangzhou, 21 October 2011LTO/SCSIO
2011Invited talk at Beijing Climate Change Conference, Beijing, 18-20 October 2011Chinese Academy of Sciences and CSIRO
2009Invited talk at Australian Climate Change Science Program breakfast at Greenhouse 2009 conference, Perth, Western Australia, 26 March 2009CSIRO

Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts

Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Mattew C., Otkin, Jason A., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cowan, Timothy. 2023. "Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 24 (6), p. 1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0033.1

Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review

Heidemann, Hanna, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Ribbe, Joachim, Freund, Mandy and Power, Scott. 2023. "Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review ." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change. 14 (3). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.823

Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes

Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Mathew C. and Cowan, Tim. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 335-357. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1

The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights

Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1

Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

Domeisen, Daniela I. V., White, Christopher J., Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla, Munoz, Angel G., Janiga, Matthew A., Vitart, Frederic, Wulff, C. Ole, Antoine, Salome, Ardilouze, Constantin, Batte, Lauriane, Bloomfield, Hannah C., Brayshaw, David J., Camargo, Suzana J., Charlton-Perez, Andrew, Collins, Dan, Cowan, Tim, del Mar Chaves, Maria, Ferranti, Laura, Gomez, Rosario, ..., Tian, Di. 2022. "Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1

Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Hudson, Debra, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Griffiths, Morwenna and Young, Griffith. 2022. Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia. Australia. Bureau of Meteorology.

Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Nguyen, Hanh and Cobon, David. 2022. "Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z

Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service

Hope, Pandora, Zhao, Mei, Abhik, S., Tolhurst, Gen, McKay, Roseanna C., Rauniyar, Surendra P., Bettio, Lynette, Ramchurn, Avijeet, Lim, Eun-Pa, Pepler, Acacia S, Cowan, Tim and Watkins, Andrew B.. 2022. "Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (3), pp. S7-S13. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0253.1

Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, Sugata and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2021. "Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting. 37 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0046.1

The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall

Heidemann, Hanna, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Henley, Benjamin J., Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Cobon, David H.. 2022. "The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 35 (1), pp. 425-444. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0264.1

The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019

Hawcroft, Matt, Lavender, Sally, Copsey, Dan, Milton, Sean, Rodriguez, Jose, Tennant, Warren, Webster, Stuart and Cowan, Tim. 2021. "The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019." Monthly Weather Review. 149, pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1

Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Nino–Southern Oscillation

Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2021. "Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Nino–Southern Oscillation." Journal of Climate. 34 (6), pp. 2205-2218. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0232.1

Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States

Cowan, Tim, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Schurer, Andrew, Tett, Simon F. B., Vautard, Robert, Yiou, Pascal, Jezequel, Aglae, Otto, Friederike E. L., Harrington, Luke J. and Ng, Benjamin. 2020. "Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States." Nature Communications. 11 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w

Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions

Cowan, Tim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew C. and Griffiths, Morwenna. 2020. "Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions." Climate Services. 19, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100182

Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

Cowan, Tim, Indorf, Sabine, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E. L.. 2020. "Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves." Nature Climate Change. 10 (6), pp. 505-510. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7

Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate

Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469

Causes of climate change over the historical record

Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine. 2019. "Causes of climate change over the historical record." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557

Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019

Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. H. and Hawcroft, M. K.. 2019. "Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019." Weather and Climate Extremes. 26, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232

Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer

Schurer, Andrew P., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Luterbacher, Jurg, Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Tett, Simon F. B., Zanchettin, Davide and Timmreck, Claudia. 2019. "Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (094019), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10

Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Cowan, Tim and Hegerl, Gabriele C.. 2019. "Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave." Climate Dynamics. 53 (3-4), pp. 2229-2247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2

Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia

Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Matthew C., Otkin, Jason A., Cowan, Tim, Frost, Andrew and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (6), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103

Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties

Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2018. "Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties." Scientific Reports. 8 (1), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31842-3

Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study

Christiansen, Bo, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Timothy, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Orth, Rene, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Vautard, Robert, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal. 2018. "Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study." Journal of Climate. 31 (9), pp. 3387-3410. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6

More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming

Cai, Wenju, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Borlace, Simon, Collins, Matthew, Cowan, Tim, McPhaden, Michael J., Timmermann, Axel, Power, Scott, Brown, Josephine, Menkes, Christophe, Ngari, Arona, Vincent, Emmanuel M. and Widlansky, Matthew J.. 2012. "More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming." Nature. 488 (7411), pp. 365-369. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11358

Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications

Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1

Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections

Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242

Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?

Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.

Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling

Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1

An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean

Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380

Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean

Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528

A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research

Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.

A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research

Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.

The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming

Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701