Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Played a Key Role in the Multidecadal Increase in Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Article

Fahrenbach, Nora L. S., Bollasina, Massimo A., Samset, BjØrn H., Cowan, Tim and Ekman, Annica M. L.. 2024. "Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Played a Key Role in the Multidecadal Increase in Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 37 (3), pp. 895-911. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0313.1
Article Title

Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Played a Key Role in the Multidecadal Increase in Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

ERA Journal ID1978
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsFahrenbach, Nora L. S., Bollasina, Massimo A., Samset, BjØrn H., Cowan, Tim and Ekman, Annica M. L.
Journal TitleJournal of Climate
Journal Citation37 (3), pp. 895-911
Number of Pages17
Year2024
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0894-8755
1520-0442
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0313.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0313.1.xml
AbstractObservations show a significant increase in Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) rainfall since the mid-twentieth century. Yet the drivers of this trend, including the role of anthropogenic aerosols, remain uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap using historical simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the CESM2 Large Ensemble, and idealized single-forcing simulations from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions played a key role in the observed increase in AUSM rainfall from 1930 to 2014, alongside the influence of internal variability. Sulfate aerosol emissions over Asia led to regional surface cooling and strengthening of the climatological Siberian high over eastern China, which altered the meridional temperature and sea level pressure gradients across the Indian Ocean. This caused an intensification and southward shift of the Australian monsoonal westerlies (and the local Hadley cell) and resulted in a precipitation increase over northern Australia. Conversely, the influence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on AUSM rainfall was minimal due to the compensation between thermodynamically induced wettening and transient eddy-induced drying trends. At a larger scale, aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing played a key role in the climate response over the Indo-Pacific sector and eastern equatorial Pacific, respectively (coined the “tropical Pacific east–west divide”). These findings contribute to an improved understanding of the drivers of the multidecadal trend in AUSM rainfall and highlight the need to reduce uncertainties in future projections under different aerosol emission trajectories, which is particularly important for northern Australia’s agriculture.
KeywordsAerosols/particulates; Atmospheric circulation; Australia; Monsoons; Precipitation; Anthropogenic effects/forcing
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Stockholm University, Sweden
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Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2011. "The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047268
Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2011. "Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall." Journal of Climate. 24 (15), pp. 3910-3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1
Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter and Cowan, Tim. 2011. "Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia." Journal of Climate. 24 (23), pp. 6035-6053. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4149.1
Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Borlace, S. and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?" Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047943
Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 24 (6), pp. 1688-1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3744.1
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review." Jubb, Imogen, Holper, Paul and Cai, Wenju (ed.) Managing Climate Change. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 65-72
Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin
Yu, Jingjie, Fu, Guobin, Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin." Water International. 35 (3), pp. 313-323. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2010.484907
Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Sullivan, Arnold. 2010. "Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact." Journal of Climate. 23 (18), pp. 4944-4955. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1
Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Godfrey, Stuart and Wijffels, Susan. 2010. "Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean." Journal of Climate. 23 (1), pp. 197-206. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3081.1
Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Braganza, Karl, Jones, David and Risbey, James. 2010. "Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042254
On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Arblaster, J. M. and Wijffels, S.. 2010. "On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044399
A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields
Bye, John A.T., Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields ." Hurricanes and Climate Change. United States. Springer. pp. 101-120
How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?
Sullivan, Arnold, Cai, W. and Cowan, T. D.. 2009. "How well do IPCC-AR4 models simulate Australian rainfall teleconnections during two-consecutive positive Indian Ocean dipole events?" 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin
Cowan, T. D. and Cai, Wenju. 2009. "Are declining river inflows linked to rising temperatures? A perspective from the Murray-Darling Basin." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Methods of assessing the performance of IPCC-AR4 models in simulating Australian rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific climate drivers." 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Cairns, Australia 13 - 17 Jul 2009 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "How rare are the 2006-2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037982
Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2009. "Rainfall teleconnections with indo-pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 22 (19), pp. 5046-5071. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2694.1
Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events
Cai, W., Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040163
Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008
Cai, W., Pan, A., Roemmich, D., Cowan, T. and Guo, X.. 2009. "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006-2008." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037038
Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Sullivan, A.. 2009. "Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037604
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires
Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Raupach, M.. 2009. "Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039902
Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Briggs, Peter and Raupach, Michael. 2009. "Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040334
La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2009. "La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability." Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037885
Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing?" Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034174
Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033390
Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2008. "Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over southeastern Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033727
The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes
Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "The south-east Australia drought: Possible causes." Water: Official journal of the Australian Water and Wastewater Association. 35 (5), pp. 95-97.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-99: Ozone depletion versus greenhouse forcing." Journal of Climate. 20 (4), pp. 681-693. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4028.1
Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2007. "Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the Southern Hemisphere: An air-sea positive feedback." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031706
SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2006. "SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?" Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028037
Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation
Cai, W., Bi, D., Church, J., Cowan, T., Dix, M. and Rotstayn, L.. 2006. "Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027513
Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region
Simmonds, Ian, Rafter, Anthony, Cowan, Timothy, Watkins, Andrew B. and Keay, Kevin. 2005. "Large-scale vertical momentum, kinetic energy and moisture fluxes in the antarctic sea-ice region." Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. 117 (1), pp. 149-177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-004-5939-6
Sonoluminescence quenching by organic acids in aqueous solution: pH and frequency effects
Price, Gareth J. P, Ashokkumar, Muthupandian, Cowan, Timothy D. and Grieser, Franz. 2002. "Sonoluminescence quenching by organic acids in aqueous solution: pH and frequency effects." Chemical Communications. 16 (16), p. 1740–1741. https://doi.org/10.1039/B201795D