Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models

Article

Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Caron, Louis-Philippe, King, Malcolm, Monkiewicz, Sam, Guishard, Mark, Zhang, Qiong and Hunt, barrie. 2018. "Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models." Science Advances. 4 (8), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat6509
Article Title

Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models

ERA Journal ID211335
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsLavender, Sally L. (Author), Walsh, Kevin J. E. (Author), Caron, Louis-Philippe (Author), King, Malcolm (Author), Monkiewicz, Sam (Author), Guishard, Mark (Author), Zhang, Qiong (Author) and Hunt, barrie (Author)
Journal TitleScience Advances
Journal Citation4 (8), pp. 1-8
Article Number6509
Number of Pages8
Year2018
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN2375-2548
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat6509
Web Address (URL)https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6509
Abstract

Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the maximum possible number for the present climate of that basin. By estimating both the mean number of tropical cyclones and their possible year-to-year random variability, we find that the likelihood that the maximum number of storms in the Atlantic could be greater than the number of events observed during the 2005 season is less than 3.5%. Using a less restrictive comparison between simulated and observed climate with the internal variability accounted for, this probability increases to 9%; however, the estimated maximum possible number of tropical cyclones does not greatly exceed the 2005 total. Hence, the 2005 season can be used as a risk management benchmark for the maximum possible number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Keywordshurricanes; maximum likelihood estimation; risk management; storms; tropics; climate model simulations; internal variability; North Atlantic; random variability; tropical cyclone; climate models
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370108. Meteorology
370202. Climatology
Byline AffiliationsCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
University of Melbourne
Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain
Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Bermuda
Stockholm University, Sweden
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q51y3/estimation-of-the-maximum-annual-number-of-north-atlantic-tropical-cyclones-using-climate-models

Log in to edit

Download files

Published Version
eaat6509.full.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 187
    total views
  • 96
    total downloads
  • 3
    views this month
  • 1
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies
Chand, Savin, Power, Scott, Walsh, Kevin, Holbrook, Neil, McInnes, Kathleen, Tory, Kevin and Ramsay, Hamish. 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 176 (2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji
Walsh, Kevin J.E., Bettio, Lynette, Power, Scott, Fawcett, Robert and Pahalad, Janita. 2001. "Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji." Australian Meteorological Magazine. 50 (3), pp. 195-203.
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models
Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Utembe, Steven, Caron, Louis‑Philippe and Guishard, Mark. 2021. "Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models." Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04977-2
Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., ..., Yeager, S.. 2018. "Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C." Geophysical Research Letters. 45 (21), pp. 11,895-11,903. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362
The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019
Hawcroft, Matt, Lavender, Sally, Copsey, Dan, Milton, Sean, Rodriguez, Jose, Tennant, Warren, Webster, Stuart and Cowan, Tim. 2021. "The benefits of ensemble prediction for forecasting an extreme event: the Queensland floods of February 2019." Monthly Weather Review. 149, pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1
Global climatology of rainfall rates and lifetime accumulated rainfall in tropical cyclones: Influence of cyclone basin, cyclone intensity and cyclone size
Lavender, Sally L. and McBride, John L.. 2021. "Global climatology of rainfall rates and lifetime accumulated rainfall in tropical cyclones: Influence of cyclone basin, cyclone intensity and cyclone size." International Journal of Climatology. 41 (S1), pp. E1217-E1235. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6763
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2017. "Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency." Journal of Climate. 30 (22), pp. 8865-8883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1
Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions
Walsh, K. J. E., Sur, Sharmila, Thatcher, M., Wales, S., Utembe, S. and Vaughan, A.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1473-1486. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0079.1
Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification
Sur, Sharmila, Walsh, K. J. E., Thatcher, M., Wales, S. and Utembe, S.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1455-1472. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
Chand, Savin S., Dowdy, Andrew J., Ramsay, Hamish A., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Tory, Kevin J., Power, Scott B., Bell, Samuel S., Lavender, Sally L., Ye, Hua and Kuleshov, Yuri. 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends." WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.602
Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves
Bates, Bryson C., Argueso, Daniel, Evans, Jason, Green, Janice, Griesser, Aurel, Jakob, Dorte, Seed, Alan, Lau, Rex, Lehmann, Eric, Phatak, Aloke, Abbs, Deborah, Lavender, Sally, Nguyen, Kim, Rafter, Tony, Thatcher, Marcus, Zheng, Feifei, Westra, Seth and Leonard, Michael. 2015. "Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves." 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The Art and Science of Water (HWRS 2015). Hobart, Australia 07 - 10 Dec 2015 Barton, Australia.
Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region
Lavender, Sally L. and Dowdy, Andrew J.. 2016. "Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 121 (22), pp. 13,236-13,249. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025562
Spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on Dugong calf production
Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B., Delean, Steven, Grayson, Jillian, Lavender, Sally, Logan, Murray and Marsh, Helene. 2016. "Spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on Dugong calf production." PLoS One. 11 (6), pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675
The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in northwest Australia
Ng, Benjamin, Walsh, Kevin and Lavender, Sally. 2015. "The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in northwest Australia." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (10), pp. 2689-2697. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4148
A climatology of Australian heat low events
Lavender, Sally L.. 2017. "A climatology of Australian heat low events." International Journal of Climatology. 37 (1), pp. 534-539. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4692
Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2018. "Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion." Nature Climate Change. 8 (8), pp. 730-736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5
The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study
Lavender, Sally L., Hoeke, Ron K. and Abbs, Deborah J.. 2018. "The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18 (3), pp. 795-805. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-795-2018
The physical processes causing nocturnal rainfall over northwest Australia and their representation in high- and low-resolution models with parametrized convection
Ackerley, D., Birch, C. E., Garcia-Carreras, L., Lavender, S. L. and Weller, E.. 2018. "The physical processes causing nocturnal rainfall over northwest Australia and their representation in high- and low-resolution models with parametrized convection." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 144 (711), pp. 511-528. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3223