Spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on Dugong calf production

Article


Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B., Delean, Steven, Grayson, Jillian, Lavender, Sally, Logan, Murray and Marsh, Helene. 2016. "Spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on Dugong calf production." PLoS One. 11 (6), pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675
Article Title

Spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on Dugong calf production

ERA Journal ID39745
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsFuentes, Mariana M. P. B. (Author), Delean, Steven (Author), Grayson, Jillian (Author), Lavender, Sally (Author), Logan, Murray (Author) and Marsh, Helene (Author)
Journal TitlePLoS One
Journal Citation11 (6), pp. 1-14
Article Numbere0155675
Number of Pages14
Year2016
PublisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1932-6203
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675
Abstract

Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales. © 2016 Fuentes et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Keywordsrain; adult; Australia; climate change; Dugongs; environmental change; environmental factor; environmental management; environmental temperature
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020410402. Environmental assessment and monitoring
370201. Climate change processes
410404. Environmental management
Byline AffiliationsJames Cook University
University of Adelaide
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Australian Institute of Marine Science, Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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