Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Article
Article Title | Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion |
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ERA Journal ID | 201295 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Sur, Sharmila (Author) and Walsh, K. J. E. (Author) |
Journal Title | Nature Climate Change |
Journal Citation | 8 (8), pp. 730-736 |
Number of Pages | 7 |
Year | 2018 |
Place of Publication | London, United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
1758-6798 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5 |
Abstract | Recent research indicates that the annual-mean locations of tropical cyclones have migrated toward higher latitudes. Concurrently, an anthropogenically forced tropical expansion has been observed, yet the connection between the two processes remains little-explored. Here, using observational and reanalysis data, we investigate how large-scale dynamical effects, combined with coherent changes in the regional Hadley circulation, explain recent changes in regional tropical cyclone genesis over 1980–2014. We show that the recent anomalous upper-level weakening of the rising branch of the Hadley circulation in the deep tropics, possibly induced by the increased vertical stability, has likely suppressed the low-latitude tropical cyclone genesis in most ocean basins via anomalous large-scale subsidence. Regional Hadley circulation variations have also favoured a poleward displacement of tropical-cyclone-favourable climate conditions through poleward shift of the Hadley circulation’s meridional extent. With projections indicating continued tropical expansion, these results indicate that tropical cyclone genesis will also continue to shift poleward, potentially increasing tropical-cyclone-related hazards in higher-latitude regions. |
Keywords | tropical cyclone; hurricane; TC frequency |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
370105. Atmospheric dynamics | |
370108. Meteorology | |
370899. Oceanography not elsewhere classified | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | University of Melbourne |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q51w7/recent-poleward-shift-of-tropical-cyclone-formation-linked-to-hadley-cell-expansion
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