Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

Article

Weisheimer, Antje, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Stockdale, Tim N., Mayer, Michael, Sharmila, S., Hendon, Harry and Alves, Oscar. 2022. "Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
Article Title

Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWeisheimer, Antje, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Stockdale, Tim N., Mayer, Michael, Sharmila, S., Hendon, Harry and Alves, Oscar
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation49 (10)
Article Numbere2022GL097885
Number of Pages12
Year2022
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL097885
Abstract

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

KeywordsENSO
Byline AffiliationsEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom
University of Oxford, United Kingdom
University of Vienna, Austria
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Monash University
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z02y2/variability-of-enso-forecast-skill-in-2-year-global-reforecasts-over-the-20th-century

Log in to edit

Download files

Published Version
Geophysical Research Letters - 2022 - Weisheimer.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 74
    total views
  • 36
    total downloads
  • 2
    views this month
  • 2
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

BoM in the Bush – Linking Climate Science and Decision Making
Marshall, A., Jarvis, C., Cowan, T., Wheeler, M., Hendon, H., Yeo, C. and Cobon, D.. 2023. "BoM in the Bush – Linking Climate Science and Decision Making." 22nd Biennial Australian Rangeland Society Conference. Broome, Australia 18 - 22 Sep 2023
Madden-Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1
Marshall, Andrew G., Wang, Guomin, Hendon, Harry H. and Lin, Hai. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1." Climate Dynamics. 61, pp. 431-447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06586-6
Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century
Sharmila, S., Hendon, H., Alves, O., Weisheimer, A. and Balmaseda, M.. 2023. "Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century." Journal of Climate. 36 (5), pp. 1269-1285. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0028.1
ACCESS-S2: The upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
Wedd, Robin, Alves, Oscar, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Down, Christopher, Griffiths, Morwenna, Hendon, Harry H., Hudson, Debra, Li, Shuhua, Lim, Eun-Pa, Marshall, Andrew G., Shi, Li, Smith, Paul, Smith, Grant, Spillman, Claire M., Wang, Guomin, Wheeler, Matthew C., Yan, Hailin, Yin, Yonghong, Young, Griffith, ..., Zhou, Xiaobing. 2022. "ACCESS-S2: The upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 72, pp. 218-242. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22026
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, Sugata and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2021. "Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting. 37 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0046.1
Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects
Power, Scott, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Capotondi, Antonietta, Khodri, Myriam, Vialard, Jerome, Jebri, Beyrem, Guilyardi, Eric, McGregor, Shayne, Kug, Jong-Seong, Newman, Matthew, McPhaden, Michael J., Meehl, Gerald, Smith, Doug, Cole, Julia, Emile-Geay, Julien, Vimont, Daniel, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Collins, Mat, Kim, Geon-Il, ..., Henley, Benjamin J.. 2021. "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects." Science. 374 (6563), pp. 48-57. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges
Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Hope, Pandora, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, ..., Delage, Francois. 2019. "Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (3), pp. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019
Lim, E., Hendon, H., Shi, L., de Burgh-Day, C., Hudson, D., King, A., Trewin, B., Griffiths, M. and Marshall, A.. 2021. "Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019." Climate Dynamics. 56 (11-12), p. 3625–3641. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05661-8
Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Multiweek Prediction of Australian Rainfall Extremes using the ACCESS-S1 Prediction System
Marshall, Andrew G., Hendon, Harry H. and Hudson, Debra. 2021. "Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Multiweek Prediction of Australian Rainfall Extremes using the ACCESS-S1 Prediction System." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 71, pp. 159-180. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES21001
Niño 4 West (Niño-4W) sea surface temperature variability
Feng, Ming, Zhang, Ying, Hendon, Harry H., McPhaden, Michael J. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2021. "Niño 4 West (Niño-4W) sea surface temperature variability." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 126 (9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017591
Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña
Lim, Eun-Pa, Hudson, Debra, Wheeler, Matthew C., Marshall, Andrew G., King, Andrew, Zhu, Hongyan, Hendon, Harry H., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Trewin, Blair, Griffiths, Morwenna, Ramchurn, Avijeet and Young, Griffith. 2021. "Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña." Scientific Reports. 11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97690-w
Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall
Sur, Sharmila and Hendon, Harry H.. 2020. "Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall." Scientific Reports. 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61482-5
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2017. "Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency." Journal of Climate. 30 (22), pp. 8865-8883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1
Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions
Walsh, K. J. E., Sur, Sharmila, Thatcher, M., Wales, S., Utembe, S. and Vaughan, A.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1473-1486. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0079.1
Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification
Sur, Sharmila, Walsh, K. J. E., Thatcher, M., Wales, S. and Utembe, S.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1455-1472. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremes
Marshall, A., Hendon, H., Hemer, M., McInnes, K. and Durrant, T.. 2020. "Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremes." 27th Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Fremantle, Australia 10 - 14 Feb 2020
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia
King, Andrew D., Hudson, Debra, Lim, Eun-Pa, Marshall, Andrew G., Hendon, Harry H., Lane, Todd P. and Alves, Oscar. 2020. "Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 146 (730), pp. 2228-2249. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3789
Predicting the extreme conditions in northern Australia associated with the February 2019 rainfall event
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D. and Hawcroft, D.M.. 2020. "Predicting the extreme conditions in northern Australia associated with the February 2019 rainfall event." Bureau of Meteorology Climate Training 2020. Melbourne, Australia 12 - 12 Mar 2020
Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2018. "Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion." Nature Climate Change. 8 (8), pp. 730-736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5
An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2012. "An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate." Journal of Climate. 25 (18), pp. 6318-6329. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00501.1
Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?
Allan, Robert J., Chambers, Don, Drosdowsky, Wasyl, Hendon, Harry, Latif, Mojib, Nicholls, Neville, Smith, Ian, Stone, Roger C. and Tourre, Yves. 2001. "Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?" CLIVAR Exchanges. 6 (3), pp. 18-22.
Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2011. "Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall." Journal of Climate. 24 (15), pp. 3910-3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1