Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

Article


Weisheimer, Antje, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Stockdale, Tim N., Mayer, Michael, Sharmila, S., Hendon, Harry and Alves, Oscar. 2022. "Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
Article Title

Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWeisheimer, Antje, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Stockdale, Tim N., Mayer, Michael, Sharmila, S., Hendon, Harry and Alves, Oscar
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation49 (10)
Article Numbere2022GL097885
Number of Pages12
Year2022
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL097885
Abstract

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

KeywordsENSO
Byline AffiliationsEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom
University of Oxford, United Kingdom
University of Vienna, Austria
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Monash University
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