Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification

Article


Sur, Sharmila, Walsh, K. J. E., Thatcher, M., Wales, S. and Utembe, S.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1455-1472. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Article Title

Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification

ERA Journal ID1978
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSur, Sharmila (Author), Walsh, K. J. E. (Author), Thatcher, M. (Author), Wales, S. (Author) and Utembe, S. (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Climate
Journal Citation33 (4), pp. 1455-1472
Number of Pages18
Year2020
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0894-8755
1520-0442
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/4/jcli-d-19-0078.1.xml
Abstract

Recent global climate models with sufficient resolution and physics offer a promising approach for simulating
real-world tropical cyclone (TC) statistics and their changing relationship with climate. In the first part
of this study, we examine the performance of a high-resolution (;40-km horizontal grid) global climate
model, the atmospheric component of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
(ACCESS) based on the Met Office Unified Model (UM8.5) Global Atmosphere (GA6.0). The atmospheric
model is forced with observed sea surface temperature, and 20 years of integrations (1990–2009) are analyzed
for evaluating the simulated TC statistics compared with observations. The model reproduces the observed
climatology, geographical distribution, and interhemispheric asymmetry of global TC formation rates reasonably
well. The annual cycle of regional TC formation rates over most basins is also well captured.
However, there are some regional biases in the geographical distribution of TC formation rates. To identify
the sources of these biases, a suite of model-simulated large-scale climate conditions that critically modulate
TC formation rates are further evaluated, including the assessment of a multivariate genesis potential index.
Results indicate that the model TC genesis biases correspond well to the inherent biases in the simulated
large-scale climatic states, although the relative effects on TC genesis of some variables differs between
basins. This highlights the model’s mean-state dependency in simulating accurate TC formation rates.

Keywordstropical cyclones; climate variability; climate models
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370199. Atmospheric sciences not elsewhere classified
370108. Meteorology
370899. Oceanography not elsewhere classified
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Melbourne
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q58x2/real-world-and-tropical-cyclone-world-part-i-high-resolution-climate-model-verification

Download files


Published Version
  • 148
    total views
  • 109
    total downloads
  • 2
    views this month
  • 2
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century
Sharmila, S., Hendon, H., Alves, O., Weisheimer, A. and Balmaseda, M.. 2023. "Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century." Journal of Climate. 36 (5), pp. 1269-1285. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0028.1
Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies
Chand, Savin, Power, Scott, Walsh, Kevin, Holbrook, Neil, McInnes, Kathleen, Tory, Kevin and Ramsay, Hamish. 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 176 (2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji
Walsh, Kevin J.E., Bettio, Lynette, Power, Scott, Fawcett, Robert and Pahalad, Janita. 2001. "Extended seasonal prediction of precipitation in Fiji." Australian Meteorological Magazine. 50 (3), pp. 195-203.
Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century
Weisheimer, Antje, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Stockdale, Tim N., Mayer, Michael, Sharmila, S., Hendon, Harry and Alves, Oscar. 2022. "Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, Sugata and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2021. "Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting. 37 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0046.1
Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models
Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Utembe, Steven, Caron, Louis‑Philippe and Guishard, Mark. 2021. "Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models." Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04977-2
Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S.. 2020. "Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate." Earth's Future. 8 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469
Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall
Sur, Sharmila and Hendon, Harry H.. 2020. "Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall." Scientific Reports. 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61482-5
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2017. "Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency." Journal of Climate. 30 (22), pp. 8865-8883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1
Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions
Walsh, K. J. E., Sur, Sharmila, Thatcher, M., Wales, S., Utembe, S. and Vaughan, A.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1473-1486. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0079.1
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
Chand, Savin S., Dowdy, Andrew J., Ramsay, Hamish A., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Tory, Kevin J., Power, Scott B., Bell, Samuel S., Lavender, Sally L., Ye, Hua and Kuleshov, Yuri. 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: climatology, variability, predictability, and trends." WIREs Climate Change. 10 (5), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.602
Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves
Bates, Bryson C., Argueso, Daniel, Evans, Jason, Green, Janice, Griesser, Aurel, Jakob, Dorte, Seed, Alan, Lau, Rex, Lehmann, Eric, Phatak, Aloke, Abbs, Deborah, Lavender, Sally, Nguyen, Kim, Rafter, Tony, Thatcher, Marcus, Zheng, Feifei, Westra, Seth and Leonard, Michael. 2015. "Preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on design rainfall IFD curves." 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The Art and Science of Water (HWRS 2015). Hobart, Australia 07 - 10 Dec 2015 Barton, Australia.
The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in northwest Australia
Ng, Benjamin, Walsh, Kevin and Lavender, Sally. 2015. "The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in northwest Australia." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (10), pp. 2689-2697. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4148
Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E.. 2018. "Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion." Nature Climate Change. 8 (8), pp. 730-736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5
Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models
Lavender, Sally L., Walsh, Kevin J. E., Caron, Louis-Philippe, King, Malcolm, Monkiewicz, Sam, Guishard, Mark, Zhang, Qiong and Hunt, barrie. 2018. "Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models." Science Advances. 4 (8), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat6509
Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Thatcher, Marcus. 2012. "Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion." Scientific Reports. 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00702