Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification

Article


Sur, Sharmila, Walsh, K. J. E., Thatcher, M., Wales, S. and Utembe, S.. 2020. "Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification." Journal of Climate. 33 (4), pp. 1455-1472. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Article Title

Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification

ERA Journal ID1978
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSur, Sharmila (Author), Walsh, K. J. E. (Author), Thatcher, M. (Author), Wales, S. (Author) and Utembe, S. (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Climate
Journal Citation33 (4), pp. 1455-1472
Number of Pages18
Year2020
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0894-8755
1520-0442
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0078.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/4/jcli-d-19-0078.1.xml
Abstract

Recent global climate models with sufficient resolution and physics offer a promising approach for simulating
real-world tropical cyclone (TC) statistics and their changing relationship with climate. In the first part
of this study, we examine the performance of a high-resolution (;40-km horizontal grid) global climate
model, the atmospheric component of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
(ACCESS) based on the Met Office Unified Model (UM8.5) Global Atmosphere (GA6.0). The atmospheric
model is forced with observed sea surface temperature, and 20 years of integrations (1990–2009) are analyzed
for evaluating the simulated TC statistics compared with observations. The model reproduces the observed
climatology, geographical distribution, and interhemispheric asymmetry of global TC formation rates reasonably
well. The annual cycle of regional TC formation rates over most basins is also well captured.
However, there are some regional biases in the geographical distribution of TC formation rates. To identify
the sources of these biases, a suite of model-simulated large-scale climate conditions that critically modulate
TC formation rates are further evaluated, including the assessment of a multivariate genesis potential index.
Results indicate that the model TC genesis biases correspond well to the inherent biases in the simulated
large-scale climatic states, although the relative effects on TC genesis of some variables differs between
basins. This highlights the model’s mean-state dependency in simulating accurate TC formation rates.

Keywordstropical cyclones; climate variability; climate models
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370199. Atmospheric sciences not elsewhere classified
370108. Meteorology
370899. Oceanography not elsewhere classified
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Melbourne
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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