An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

Article


Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
Article Title

An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

ERA Journal ID210480
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsNewlands, Nathaniel K. (Author), Zamar, David S. (Author), Kouadio, Louis A. (Author), Zhang, Yinsuo (Author), Chipanshi, Aston (Author), Potgieter, Andries (Author), Toure, Souleymane (Author) and Hill, Harvey S. J. (Author)
Journal TitleFrontiers in Environmental Science
Journal Citation2, pp. 1-21
Article Number17
Number of Pages21
Year2014
PublisherFrontiers Research Foundation
Place of PublicationLausanne, Switzerland
ISSN2296-665X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
Web Address (URL)http://www.frontiersin.org/Journal/Abstract.aspx?s=1472&name=interdisciplinary_climate_studies&ART_DOI=10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
Abstract

We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR) scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting and comparing forecasts against available historical data (1987–2011) for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1–4% in mid-season and over-estimated by 1% at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

Keywordsagriculture; forecasting; Bayesian; uncertainty; climate; regional; crop yield; seasonal variation
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300206. Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Byline AffiliationsAgriculture and Agri-Food, Canada
University of British Columbia, Canada
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
University of Queensland
Canadian Wildlife Service, Canada
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Potgieter, Andries, McLean, Greg and Hill, Harvey. 2015. "Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool." Agricultural Sciences. 6 (7), pp. 686-698. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.67066
Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Williams, Allyson, White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff, Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis. 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, A. L., Mackels, C., Tychon, B., Delfosse, P. and Bock, C. H.. 2015. "A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat." Plant Pathology. 64 (2), pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.12252
Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture
Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L., Beyer, M., Tychon, B. and Delfosse, P.. 2013. "Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2013 APS-MSA Joint Meeting. United States 10 - 14 Aug 2013 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-103-6-S2.1
Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery
Potgieter, Andries, Apan, Armando, Hammer, Graeme and Dunn, Peter. 2011. "Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery." International Journal of Remote Sensing. 32 (15), pp. 4281-4310. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.486415
Determining broadacre crop area estimates through the use of multi-temporal modis satellite imagery for major Australian winter crops
Potgieter, Andries B.. 2009. Determining broadacre crop area estimates through the use of multi-temporal modis satellite imagery for major Australian winter crops. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland.
Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia
Stone, Roger C. and Potgieter, Andries. 2008. "Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia." Options Mediterraneennes.
Early-season crop area estimates for winter crops in NE Australia using MODIS satellite imagery
Potgieter, A. B., Apan, A., Hammer, G. and Dunn, P.. 2010. "Early-season crop area estimates for winter crops in NE Australia using MODIS satellite imagery." ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. 65 (4), pp. 380-387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2010.04.004
Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and seasonal variability of the MODIS NDVI and EVI images
Fontana, Denise C., Potgieter, Andries B. and Apan, Armando. 2007. "Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and seasonal variability of the MODIS NDVI and EVI images." Applied Geographic Information Systems (GIS). 3 (7), pp. 1-16.
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2003. "El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2005. "Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield." Journal of Climate. 18 (10), pp. 1566-1574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3349.1
Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index from MODIS satellite imagery
Potgieter, Andries B., Apan, Armando, Dunn, Peter K. and Hammer, Graeme L.. 2007. "Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index from MODIS satellite imagery." Crop and Pasture Science. 58 (4), pp. 316-325. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR06279
Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and multi-temporal MODIS NDVI and EVI images
Fontana, Denise C., Potgieter, Andries B. and Apan, Armando. 2005. "Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and multi-temporal MODIS NDVI and EVI images." Bellman, Chris, Cartwright, William and Shortis, Mark (ed.) 2005 Spatial Sciences Institute Biennial Conference: Spatial Intelligence, Innovation and Praxis (SSC2005). Melbourne, Australia 12 - 16 Sep 2005 Melbourne, Australia.
Spying on the winter wheat crop - generating objective planted area and crop production estimates using MODIS imagery
Potgieter, Andries B., Apan, Armando, Hammer, Graeme L. and Dunn, Peter K.. 2005. "Spying on the winter wheat crop - generating objective planted area and crop production estimates using MODIS imagery." Bellman, Chris, Cartwright, William and Shortis, Mark (ed.) 2005 Spatial Sciences Institute Biennial Conference: Spatial Intelligence, Innovation and Praxis (SSC2005). Melbourne, Australia 12 - 16 Sep 2005