Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Presentation
Paper/Presentation Title | Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale |
---|---|
Presentation Type | Presentation |
Authors | Ghahramani, Afshin (Author), Moore, Andfrew (Author), Crimp, Steven (Author) and Howden, Mark (Author) |
Year | 2014 |
Conference/Event | 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures |
Event Details | 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures Event Date 12 to end of 16 May 2014 Event Location Fortaleza/Ceará, Brazil |
Abstract | The annual net primary production of temperate grasslands and livestock industries is predicted to decrease in southern Australia with future climate change. By using biophysical modelling, we addressed productivity and profitability relative to geography, enterprise, and time, while considering various grassland management and animal genetic improvement adaptations individually or as combinations. Grazing systems were modeled at a daily time step for a historical reference period and under future climates projected for the SRES A2 scenario. We predicted that single incremental adaptations will not completely avert declines in productivity and profitability; hence, combinations of adaptations are needed. Upscaling over all southern Australia, GCMs and enterprises, the most profitable systemic combination could increase profit by +188%, +196% and +241% in 2030, 2050, and 2070, compared to no adaptation. Changes in meat production were estimated to be +24%, +25%, and +14% in 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared to average production of recent decades. The potential value of adaptation across southern Australia was estimated as 2.7, 2.5, and 2.9 billion AU$ in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. Financially-motivated changes to grazing systems may affect the environmental outcomes which their tradeoffs with adaptation could inhibit the implementation of adaptations. We estimated that a full adaption of optimal systemic adaptation will result in improvement in soil environment and water use efficiency. However, it will lead to greater ruminant CH4 emissions from 70 kg ha-1 yr-1 in baseline to 84, 83, and 75 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2030, 2050, and 2070. Greater intensification and ruminant CH4 emissions are likely to occur, as increasing future demand of meat has been projected and we predicted that there is capacity for higher and profitable production to respond to this demand. Future food market projections have shown great demand to meat even under higher price effects. |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300399. Animal production not elsewhere classified |
300205. Agricultural production systems simulation | |
Public Notes | Oral presentation - Abstract only, published. |
Byline Affiliations | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q3qqx/adapting-the-australian-grassland-livestock-industry-to-climate-change-by-systemic-adaptation-value-of-adaptation-at-cross-regional-scale
1537
total views48
total downloads3
views this month0
downloads this month