The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale

Article

Ghahramani, Afshin, Kokic, Philip N., Moore, Andrew D., Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Howden, Mark S. and Crimp, Steven J.. 2015. "The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 211, pp. 112-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
Article Title

The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale

ERA Journal ID36361
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsGhahramani, Afshin (Author), Kokic, Philip N. (Author), Moore, Andrew D. (Author), Zheng, Bangyou (Author), Chapman, Scott C. (Author), Howden, Mark S. (Author) and Crimp, Steven J. (Author)
Journal TitleAgriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
Journal Citation211, pp. 112-125
Number of Pages14
Year2015
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0167-8809
1873-2305
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
Web Address (URL)http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880915001930
Abstract

Wheat is one of the main grains produced across the globe and wheat yields are sensitive to changes in
climate. Australia is a major exporter of wheat, and variations in its national production influence trade
supplies and global markets. We evaluated the effect of climate change in 2030 compared to a baseline
period (1980–1999) by upscaling from farm to the national level. Wheat yields and gross margins under
current and projected climates were assessed using current technology and management practices and
then compared with ‘best adapted’ yield achieved by adjustments to planting date, nitrogen fertilizer, and
available cultivars for each region. For the baseline climate (1980–1999), there was a potential yield gap
modelled as optimized adaptation gave potential up scaled yields (tonne/ha) and gross margins (AUD
$/ha) of 17% and 33% above the baseline, respectively. In 2030 and at Australian wheatbelt level, climate
change impact projected to decline wheat yield by 1%. For 2030, national wheat yields were simulated to
decrease yields by 1% when using existing technology and practices but increase them by 18% assuming
optimal adaptation. Hence, nationally at 2030 for a fully-adapted wheat system, yield increased by 1% and
gross margin by 0.3% compared to the fully adapted current climate baseline. However, there was
substantial regional variation with median yields and gross margins decreasing in 55% of sites. Full
adaptation of farm systems under current climate is not expected, and so this will remain an on-going
challenge. However, by 2030 there will be a greater opportunity to increase the overall water use and
nitrogen efficiencies of the Australian wheat belt, mostly resulting from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Keywordsclimate change adaptation, biophysical modeling, statistical upscaling, elevated CO2, water use efficiency
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
300403. Agronomy
300402. Agro-ecosystem function and prediction
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Byline AffiliationsCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2013. "Comparative analysis of climate change adaptation options across the southern Australian livestock industry." Michalk, David L., Millar, Geoffrey D., Badgery, Warwick B. and Broadfoot, Warwick B. (ed.) 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Orange, Australia.
Economic assessment of wheat breeding options for potential improved levels of post head-emergence frost tolerance
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Christopher, Mandy, Zheng, Bangyou, Chenu, Karine, Chapman, Scott C., Christopher, Jack T., Stone, Roger C., Frederiks, Troy M. and Alam, G. M. Monirul. 2017. "Economic assessment of wheat breeding options for potential improved levels of post head-emergence frost tolerance." Field Crops Research. 213, pp. 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.07.021
Modelling of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) for livestock production in diverse environments
Smith, Andrew P., Moore, Andrew D., Boschma, Suzanne P., Hayes, Richard C., Nie, Zhongnan and Pembleton, Keith G.. 2017. "Modelling of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) for livestock production in diverse environments." Crop and Pasture Science. 68 (1), pp. 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP16176
Climate change adaptation-mitigation tradeoffs in the southern Australian livestock industry: GHG emissions
Ghahramani, A. and Moore, A. D.. 2013. "Climate change adaptation-mitigation tradeoffs in the southern Australian livestock industry: GHG emissions." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Different response of soil and crop sequences to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Thomas, Dane S., Hayman, Peter T. and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Different response of soil and crop sequences to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Warragul, Australia.
Will modifying soil water holding capacity increase the resilience of southern Australian crop-livestock farms to climate change?
Thomas, D. S., Hayman, Peter and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2015. "Will modifying soil water holding capacity increase the resilience of southern Australian crop-livestock farms to climate change?" Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Canberra, Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew, Crimp, Steven and Bowran, David. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems." Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Quantifying drivers of crop-livestock integration
Ghahramani, Afshin, Thomas, Dean and Moore, Andrew. 2015. "Quantifying drivers of crop-livestock integration." National Farm Business Risk Forum: Grain & Graze - Profit Through Knowledge (2015). Perth, Australia 17 Aug 2015
Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andfrew, Crimp, Steven and Howden, Mark. 2014. "Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures. Fortaleza/Ceará, Brazil 12 - 16 May 2014
Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, A., Moore, A., Crimp, S. and Howden, M.. 2014. "Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security Conference, 2014. Madrid, Spain 19 - 20 May 2014 Canberra, Australia.
Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew d.. 2012. "Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change." 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Australia.
Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew D., Crimp, Steven J. and Bowran, David. 2015. "Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems." 5th International Symposium for Farming Systems Design. Montpellier, France 07 - 10 Sep 2015
Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia." Michalk, David L., Millar, Geoffrey D., Badgery, Warwick B. and Broadfoot, Warwick B. (ed.) 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Orange, Australia.
Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Gomi, Takashi. 2011. "Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale." Hydrological Research Letters. 5, pp. 16-20. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.5.16
Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Mudd, Simon M.. 2012. "Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients." Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 37 (5), pp. 473-485. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2253
Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia
Peck, Matthew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2016. "Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia." Climate Adaptation 2016: Change, Challenge, Opportunity. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 07 Jul 2016 Adelaide, Australia.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2014. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement." Animal Production Science. 54 (2), pp. 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN13052
Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report
Ghahramani, Afshin, Crimp, Steven, Moore, Andrew, Lau, Rex and Hopwood, Garry. 2016. Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report. Canberra, Australia. CSIRO Publishing.
Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi, Shiraki, Katsushige and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study." Catena. 85 (1), pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2010.11.005
Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash." Hydrological Processes. 25 (15), pp. 2471-2480. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8086
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability
Moore, Andrew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability." Global Change Biology. 19 (5), pp. 1440-1455. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12150
Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism
Ghahramani, Afshin and Ishikawa, Yoshiharu. 2013. "Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism." Hydrological Processes. 27 (26), pp. 4091-4102. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9791
Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types
Cottle, D. J., Harrison, M. T. and Ghahramani, A.. 2016. "Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types." Animal Production Science. 56 (3), pp. 507-518. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN15327
Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries." 23rd International Grassland Congress: sustainable use of grassland resources for forage production, biodiversity and environmental protection (IGC 2015). New Delhi, India 20 - 24 Nov 2015 Jhansi, India.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management." Crop and Pasture Science. 64 (6), pp. 615-630. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP13195
Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function." Agricultural Systems. 133, pp. 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.11.003
Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems." Agricultural Systems. 146, pp. 142-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.011
Economic impact of frost in the Australian wheatbelt
An-Vo, D.-A., Mushtaq, S., Zheng, B., Christopher, J. T., Chapman, S. and Chenu, K.. 2015. "Economic impact of frost in the Australian wheatbelt." Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015). Brisbane, Australia 16 - 18 Nov 2015
Is a reduced-tillering trait (tin) beneficial under elevated CO2 in four FACE environments?
Low, Markus, Tausz-Posch, S., Rebetzke, G., Dreccer, M. F., Chapman, S. C., Seneweera, S., Fitzgerald, G. and Tausz, M.. 2015. "Is a reduced-tillering trait (tin) beneficial under elevated CO2 in four FACE environments?" Acuña, Tina , Moeller, C., Parsons , D. and Harrison, M. (ed.) 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Warragul, Australia.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pachauri, Rajendra K., Allen, Myles R., Barros, Vicente R., Broome, John, Cramer, Wolfgang, Christ, Renate, Church, John A., Clarke, Leon, Dahe, Qin, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Dubash, Navroz K., Edenhofer, Ottmar, Elgizouli, Ismail, Field, Christopher B., Forster, Piers, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Hallegatte, Stephane, ..., van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal. 2015. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. IPCC.
Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis
Meinke, Holger, Nelson, Rohan, Kokic, Phil, Stone, Roger, Selvaraju, Ramasamy and Baethgen, Walter. 2006. "Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis." Climate Research. 33 (1), pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033101