The impact of Transit Oriented Shopping Mall Developments on metro station ridership: Dubai case

The impact of Transit Oriented Shopping Mall Developments on metro station ridership: Dubai case

Shopping malls can be developed as Transit Oriented Developments (TODs), where shoppers drive their cars less and ride nearby mass transit. By design, TODs, such as shopping malls near transit stations, invite shopper passengers to use those nearby transit stations. In this research, the attractiveness of Transit Orientated Shopping Mall Developments (TOSMDs) are considered. The existing modelling of transit station ridership forecasting does not adequately integrate all salient factors impacting transit station ridership and does not specifically consider different TOSMD attractiveness factors. Therefore, this research aims to identify TOSMD attractiveness factors and empirically clarify their impact on shopper passenger ridership at Dubai Metro Redline stations near TOSMDs.

This research systematically reviewed the urban transport planning and retail literature to establish a framework for these attractiveness factors, using the elements of the extended service marketing mix (product, price, place, promotion, people, physical evidence and process) and the five factors related to TODs (density, diversity, urban design, destination accessibility and distance). Guided by the established framework, a sample of 700 shopper passengers was then surveyed at seven metro stations near TOSMDs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The survey data was analysed using a Principal Component Analysis approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis, and then Structural Equation Modelling was employed to explain the attractiveness factors’ impact on shopper passenger ridership at the stations near the shopping mall developments.

The analysis validated 12 independent attractiveness factors associated with the extent of shopper passenger intention to use stations nearby shopping mall developments. In the case of the Dubai Metro Redline, seven factors (product, price, place, people, promotion, density and distance) were shown to have a significant impact on shopper passenger ridership preferences. This impact was found to be mediated by two contextual attractiveness factors: the location context and the store context. Furthermore, resident and tourist shopper passengers differed in the factors impacting their ridership at stations near shopping mall developments.

This research contributes to the further understanding of TOD as it combines the retail and urban transport design literature and provides an insight into transit station usage. It empirically demonstrates the links between TOSMD attractiveness factors and shopper passenger ridership at nearby stations, where other level of service factors such as punctuality, availability, public transport policies and fare level are neutralised. The study identifies TOSMD attractiveness factors as a modifying input to be considered for future passenger forecasting models at station level to ensure that they align the transit service level with the demand pattern of shopper passengers flowing from nearby shopping malls.