The Impossibility of a Bayesian Liberal?

Article


Bosworth, William and Taylor, Brad. 2022. "The Impossibility of a Bayesian Liberal?" The Journal of Politics. 84 (4), pp. 2023-2033. https://doi.org/10.1086/716286
Article Title

The Impossibility of a Bayesian Liberal?

ERA Journal ID18893
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsBosworth, William (Author) and Taylor, Brad (Author)
Journal TitleThe Journal of Politics
Journal Citation84 (4), pp. 2023-2033
Number of Pages11
Year2022
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0022-3816
1468-2508
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1086/716286
Web Address (URL)https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/716286
Abstract

Aumann’s theorem states that no individual should agree to disagree under a range of assumptions. Political liberalism appears to presuppose these assumptions with the idealized conditions of public reason. We argue that Aumann’s theorem demonstrates they nevertheless cannot be simultaneously held with what is arguably political liberalism’s most central tenet. That is, the tenet of reasonable pluralism, which implies we can rationally agree to disagree over conceptions of the good. We finish by elaborating a way of relaxing one of the theorem’s axioms that arguably lends itself to a coherent account of political liberalism, namely, the condition of indexical independence.

KeywordsAumann’s agreement theorem, political liberalism, Bayesian reasoning, public reason, indexical theory of value
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020440811. Political theory and political philosophy
500321. Social and political philosophy
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsAustralian National University
University of Southern Queensland
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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