Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan

Article


Khan, Muhammad Aamir, Tahir, Alishba, Khurshid, Nabila, Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Ahmed, Mukhtar and Boughanmi, Houcine. 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan." Sustainability. 12 (3), pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031216
Article Title

Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan

ERA Journal ID41498
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsKhan, Muhammad Aamir, Tahir, Alishba, Khurshid, Nabila, Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Ahmed, Mukhtar and Boughanmi, Houcine
Journal TitleSustainability
Journal Citation12 (3), pp. 1-17
Article Number1216
Number of Pages17
YearFeb 2020
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2071-1050
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031216
Web Address (URL)https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/1216
Abstract

This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan's Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops' production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output.

Keywordsclimate change; global climate models; economic models; agriculture production; computable general equilibrium; Pakistan
ANZSRC Field of Research 20203702. Climate change science
Byline AffiliationsCOMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan
Academic Registrar's Office
PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Pakistan
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden
Sultan Qaboos University, Oman
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/y8438/economic-effects-of-climate-change-induced-loss-of-agricultural-production-by-2050-a-case-study-of-pakistan

Download files


Published Version
sustainability-12-01216-v3.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 2
    total views
  • 4
    total downloads
  • 2
    views this month
  • 3
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption, trade, and financial development on carbon emissions in low‑, middle‑, and high‑income countries
Nasrullah, Nasrullah, Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar Ul and Khan, Muhammad Aamir. 2023. "The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption, trade, and financial development on carbon emissions in low‑, middle‑, and high‑income countries." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 30 (19), pp. 56759 - 56773. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26404-8
Investigating the energy‑environmental Kuznets curve under panel quantile regression: a global perspective
ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Beyene, Sisay Demissew and Aruga, Kentaka. 2023. "Investigating the energy‑environmental Kuznets curve under panel quantile regression: a global perspective." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 30 (8), pp. 20527-20546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23542-3
A gender-specific assessment of tobacco use risk factors: evidence from the latest Pakistan demographic and health survey
Zubair, Faiqa, ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Zhao, Ting, Ahmad, Hasnat and Khanam, Rasheda. 2022. "A gender-specific assessment of tobacco use risk factors: evidence from the latest Pakistan demographic and health survey." BMC Public Health. 22, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13574-2
Nexus between Agricultural Land Use, Economic Growth and N2O Emissions in Canada: Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve?
Haider, Azad, Rankaduwa, Wimal, ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar and Shaheen, Farzana. 2022. "Nexus between Agricultural Land Use, Economic Growth and N2O Emissions in Canada: Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve?" Sustainability. 14 (14). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148806
Testing dependence patterns of energy consumption with economic expansion and trade openness through wavelet transformed coherence in top energy-consuming countries
ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Nasrullah and Khan, Muhammad Aamir. 2021. "Testing dependence patterns of energy consumption with economic expansion and trade openness through wavelet transformed coherence in top energy-consuming countries." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 28 (36), pp. 49788-49807. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14046-7
Nexus between Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Agricultural Land Use in Agrarian Economy: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
Haider, Azad, ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar, Rankaduwa, Wimal and Shaheen, Farzana. 2021. "Nexus between Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Agricultural Land Use in Agrarian Economy: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach." Sustainability. 13 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052808