Migrant workers and uae national security: a mixed methods futures approach and scenarios toward 2050

Migrant workers and uae national security: a mixed methods futures approach and scenarios toward 2050

The proposed dissertation sets out to investigate the futures of national security threat posed by the emergence of sub-communities typified by migrant workers. The study focuses on examining the effects of migrant workers on UAE’s national security by 2050. The migrants’ effects dimensions include their stay’s legitimacy (legal/illegal) and security clearance profile (committed either criminal offense or visa offense, or both). To understand the examination, this study applied multiphase design in mixed methodology. It started with a literature review followed by a convergent design using Descriptive Statistics and PESTEEL in the initial phases of the study. The study applied qualitative data collection and analysis techniques using Delphi and Scenarios building in the third and fourth phases. At the completion of the research study, three main scenarios of possible futures of national security by 2050 were framed. The scenarios were based on the data interpretation and visualizing collected from the four phases and were associated with the drivers and forces of change affecting and affected by migrant workers committing visa and/or criminal offenses. This dissertation was submitted as a DPRS qualification and the need of General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners’ Affairs (GDRFA) to fulfil the gap in its long-term plans and the futures plan of Dubai by 2050. As a futures studies, it focuses on future uncertainties. Although, ‘The future is unpredictable,’ GDRFA is responsible for transforming the study results into ideas, threats, and opportunities. The strategies and initiatives that are based on futures analysis are only processes of preparing for the unknowns and promoting futures labs.

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